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Louis Gray › Comments

Louis Gray
Sleep is unproductive and I'm going to get you!
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Heh! - SAM
I've always been a night person. This explains a lot. - Louis Gray
Steve and 4 other people
LG IS COMING TO MY CUBE!
...and he's gone. - Steve and 4 other people
Oh sorry. - Louis Gray
Louis Gray
Our water use is down 40% year over year, due in part to going with Rachio for our smart sprinkler system. We're also down about 60% from two years ago. More to do, but the right direction. http://blog.louisgray.com/2014...
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Show all
We went 54k gallons over a 60 day period in 2012 to 24k this year. Our kids still take too many baths, and we do too much laundry, but the trajectory is good. - Louis Gray
We too have been cutting back on water usage. In completely unrelated news, we had to have 17 trees taken out this summer. :( Oh, wait, that's not completely unrelated, is it? :( - Amit Patel
Our well is producing a few gallons a day per person. Around here the water truckers have been overwhelmed with business since june as wells have run dry. We're using bottled water and eating off paper plates. #prayforrain #sacrificepeopleforrain - Todd Hoff
Looking at the data makes me feel like we're still using a ton of water, but unless we never bathe or wash clothes, we're hard pressed to take it dramatically lower. - Louis Gray
That's 12K gallons a month? That's 400 gallons a day. With 4 people that's 100 gallons per person per day. Which is average. So that's very good progress. Good work. Using no water landscaping is a good next step. That will be coming soon enough for everyone. Without better monitoring data it's hard to go that next step in reducing usage. Here are some more water savings tips: http://friendfeed.com/toddh.... - Todd Hoff
Aldercroft Heights is now rationing to 50 gallons per household per day. - Todd Hoff
@todd, but we have five people. :) - Louis Gray from Android
It's extreme, but you can give one away to a family of 3. - Todd Hoff
Stephen Mack
Dropbox is insane. This policy is nuts: "Question: Will joining someone else's shared folder use my quota?" [Dropbox Help] - https://www.dropbox.com/help...
Dropbox is insane. This policy is nuts: "Question: Will joining someone else's shared folder use my quota?" [Dropbox Help]
Answer: "The size of a shared folder will be counted against the quota of every member of that folder, unless everyone is a member of the same Dropbox for Business account. For Business accounts, the size of the shared folder will be counted against the team's shared quota only once. For all other users, your Dropbox storage quota is calculated by adding up the total amount of data in your Dropbox folder, including all shared folders. As a result, the owner of a Dropbox Basic 18 GB (2 GB + bonus storage earned through referrals) account will not be able to collaborate on a shared folder larger than 18 GB. One reason this policy exists is to prevent people from giving themselves unlimited space by stacking Basic accounts with shared folders." - Stephen Mack from Bookmarklet
My camp is trying to share photos from Burning Man. We started out on Flickr, but Flickr requires everyone have a Yahoo e-mail, and some people resisted. So we gave Dropbox a try. Now everyone who joins the shared folder is out of quota. - Stephen Mack
I guess we'll try Google Drive or Shutterfly next. - Stephen Mack
If people don't want full rez, just upload to G+ and you'll get 2k resolution unlimited photos for free. - Steve and 4 other people
the dropbox thing is baffling. what a strange solution to "we don't want people to be cheap". - Jenica
Steve: G+ might work, although if people didn't want to create a Yahoo account, not sure how they'll feel about G+ accounts. - Stephen Mack
Jenica: I know! It seems completely nuts to me. - Stephen Mack
I think G+ has the same problem as Google Drive right? Do you have a non-google e-mail address I can try to share a GDrive folder with? - Steve and 4 other people
Sure, you could use my @tivo.com address - Stephen Mack
Done. Do you want to share a folder? - Steve and 4 other people
Got it! Thanks, Steve. (Curious: Why do those files have such bizarre filenames?) - Stephen Mack
So what I ended up doing since half of us are on Dropbox already is to use "links" instead of "shares" -- I have one shared folder for uploads, which I then move into the "linked" folder. Still pretty lame. - Stephen Mack
Yup, I have this same problem with Dropbox. We have a license to a bunch of tutorial videos for WordPress, and the creator shares the new versions with us through Dropbox. Each time he shares the updated videos, it blows right through my Dropbox quota, and I have to remove everything else in order to accept the sharing invitation. Then, it gets a little dicey, because I'm never sure if... more... - COMPLICATED MR. NOODLE
Those filenames are just what Amazon MP3 generated, unfortunately. :( - Steve and 4 other people
@Stephen, if Google Drive doesn't work, rant about why and I'll tell our people what we should do to fix. - Louis Gray
Louis Gray
New person record achieved: 60k+ on Fitbit, and I've got an hour-plus to add on!
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Side note: One benefit, I believe, was beating Stephen Mack's personal record too. I'm petty like that. - Louis Gray
Grats! 10 hours of steps! Impressive. How do your feet feel? - Stephen Mack from iPhone
I was wearing my Teva sandals for the first 43,000, so I have some red/blistering on the arches where the straps come in contact with the skin, but otherwise, no problems. I switched to regular socks/shoes for the last 18,000 when I left the house around 8 and broke through my old record. - Louis Gray
I think 100k is achievable, and this proves it. It just takes 16 hours of solid work, which allows for 8 hours of flex. We should make it a charity thing and get it done. - Louis Gray
Sixteen hours doing two steps per second? That would be most impressive. - Bruce Lewis
Bruce, do you have access to the overall Fitbit data? What's the record for most steps taken in a day? - Stephen Mack
If you do a public event with witnesses who can say you were really taking steps, then that would truly be the record. Getting a maximum from the data would probably turn out to be something like https://twitter.com/marcamo... - Bruce Lewis
Yeah, I guess there's no way to distinguish the real steps versus someone, say, leaving it in front of a fan all day. - Stephen Mack
I once did three flights of stairs by pacing back and forth in the elevator. I didn't try it again, so I don't know if it was a fluke. - bentley
That wasn't a fluke -- it would happen every time: http://help.fitbit.com/article... - Bruce Lewis
I thought so. For the record, when I go on my stair-climbing binges (it's been a while), I'm not pacing in an elevator. - bentley
My 60k were real. Do my 6 year olds count as witnesses? - Louis Gray
Louis, only if a FriendFeeder who has met them vouches for their honesty. - Bruce Lewis
His six year olds seem very honest to me! - Stephen Mack
OK, it's official. - Bruce Lewis
Brian Johns
Donuts outside my cube if you're interested.
Euphemism? - Johnny from iPhone
Be right there! - Louis Gray
There are 4.75 donuts left. These things aren't going to eat themselves! (except for that .75 of a chocolate ring, might might actually be in the process of eating itself.) - Brian Johns
i put that chocolate one out of its misery. oh, thanks! - Ken Gidley
Will these also be available tomorrow morning? - Stephen Mack
They have disappeared. - Brian Johns
So you're saying the 4.75 donuts will NOT be available tomorrow morning? - Stephen Mack
I don't know anything about any "donuts" you might be talking about. Nobody can prove anything. Nobody saw me. - Brian Johns
vicster: full-bodied
Kind of frustrated that Fitbit is not properly logging sleep. It's recording the time from when I switch on the sleep clock to when I switch it off in the morning and saying I slept the whole time, even though it shows constant restlessness throughout the night. I hope they get that sorted soon.
Fitbit is still a relatively small company, so there aren't a lot of layers between customer service and engineering. Try opening a case at https://help.fitbit.com/ and they can probably get your feedback to the right people. - Bruce Lewis
it's happening to me too - starting the last week or so - ~Courtney F
I just sent them an email. - vicster: full-bodied
Sleep is unproductive and a waste of time. - Louis Gray
Mr. Gray. - vicster: full-bodied
Hi. - Louis Gray
What did they say? - Bruce Lewis
I haven't heard anything yet, Bruce. - vicster: full-bodied
And now I think the stair climbing counter has gone haywire. It says I climbed 31 floors today but I don't remember taking a lot of stairs or climbing the higher hills near my office. - vicster: full-bodied
Sometimes the stairs are confused for me when the barometric pressure goes crazy. - Jaclyn aka spamgirl from Android
I found a FAQ page: http://help.fitbit.com/article... Restlessness isn't counted as awake time. If you probably were awake there are instructions on that page for changing the sensitivity setting. - Bruce Lewis
The issue is that the more sensitive setting is no longer registering properly on the Dashboard. You have to turn it off and back on for each day for it to reflect the time actually asleep. - ~Courtney F
Vicster, can you DM me the case number for your email? I know people in Customer Service and can get it escalated. - Bruce Lewis
Thanks, Bruce. It seems to be working again. I did get an email over the weekend from them saying that they have fixed the issue. I just got distracted every time I started to come back to this thread to update. :-) - vicster: full-bodied
Johnny
Is it still "I've been hacked" if your friend grabs your unlocked phone and posts a stupid status update on Facebook? It's not RIGHT but by using the word "Hacked", does that downplay the seriousness of recent privacy violations (which are really cracks)? Sounds closer to pranked. I don't know.
We need a better ontology of online dickery - Pete : Team Marina from FFHound(roid)!
It sounds like they're trying to say hijacked and not quite getting it right. - Katy S
Pranced sounds right to me. In WoW I've seen some people have that kind of thing happen when they afk and a sibling starts posting. - Heather
We call it "cheesing" as in "I just cheesed Johnny". - Louis Gray
Who moved my cheese? - Yvonne Renee
When people do that on Twitter (usually kids posting for their parents or siblings pranking siblings), I call it "tweetnapped". - Spidra Webster
Louis Gray
One the one hand, I'm amused that Sarah's goal for the year is to eat lunch (because she's hungry). On the other hand, I think the obsession with food is showing up in her self-portrait for her "Super Firstie Selfie". First grade, oh how you've changed.
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She drew herself as a chicken? - Stephen Mack from iPhone
She looks more like a nugget than a chicken outright. - Louis Gray
Do first graders at their school have smart phones? - Starmama from FFHound(roid)!
They do not. Thank goodness. But their teacher does have access to online kits. http://www.teacherspayteachers.com/Product... - Louis Gray
Stephen Mack
The craziest thing I did at Burning Man this year? Fell 10 feet off this dome. #saturdayff
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It was the Sunday of temple burn, and I was helping break down our camp. Our ladder was not quiiiiite tall enough. - Stephen Mack
So, I clambered on up the dome itself. We loosened the top central bolt successfully. And then I was working on one of the next five hubs. I was anchored and prepared for it to shift when the bolt came off. - Stephen Mack
But I wasn't prepared for the entire area I was perched on to shift as well. I kind of rolled off and there was nothing to grab onto. So I fell. - Stephen Mack
Fortunately, some old Hapkido training kicked in: I landed on my side, with a pretty good arm slap to break my fall. Everyone in camp was freaked out, but I just stood up and said I was fine. - Stephen Mack
After that, we got the tallest guy in camp to do the bolts, and our neighbors across the street (AEZ, one of the cooler camps around) loaned us a taller ladder. Both of which were things we should have done from the beginning. - Stephen Mack
The bad part is that we were TRYING to be careful, since we'd also had an accident setting up the dome: The tall guy had accidentally dropped one of the bars while stretching up to secure one of the top hubs, and it struck our camp leader on the chest, leaving a nasty gouge. It could have been REALLY bad if it had hit her elsewhere. - Stephen Mack
One of the frequent Burning Man refrains is "safety third" but we internalized that a bit too much this year, I think. - Stephen Mack
We set up a white board with a "0 DAYS SINCE LAST ACCIDENT" and later had to switch DAYS to HOURS because of our many frequent (but fortunately minor) mishaps this year. - Stephen Mack
Note to self: Bring a taller ladder next year. - Stephen Mack
My neck was a bit sore on Wednesday, but otherwise no ill effects. - Stephen Mack
All in all, a great year. Fabulous art, thunder and lightning, great crew, amazing burns, new experiences (including working a greeter shift and running a 5k). I have zero complaints and miss the playa deeply. - Stephen Mack
--fin-- - Stephen Mack
Screw a taller ladder, bring a giant. - Steve C Team Marina
All I saw was: Screw a giant. - Kristin
I'm glad you're okay! - Spidra Webster
Again: GoPro that stuff, Stephen. - Louis Gray
One of the guys in camp set up his GoPro of the dome assembly. Haven't seen the footage yet. - Stephen Mack from iPhone
imma tall, you could just bring me, ;) - chaz2b
Done deal, Chaz! - Stephen Mack
Stephen Mack
POLL: Do you have paper maps in your car?
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(Image credit: Vintage 1968 Texaco Paper Road Map of Oregon, on sale for $3 on Etsy: https://www.etsy.com/listing...) - Stephen Mack
My answer: Nope. Not for at least five years now. - Stephen Mack
Yes - one of WA, one of the US and Canada. - Jennifer Dittrich from FFHound!
Yes, many from all over the place. - Todd Hoff
I still use paper maps. - John (bird whisperer)
yes. I keep one of Michigan roads just in case. I haven't needed it often. But the few times I have, it's been invaluable. - MoTO: Team Marina
Of course. I didn't get a smart phone till a year ago and I much prefer a paper map. - bentley
Nope - Glen Campbell
Nope. They're under my bed. - Anika
yes. - Lnorigb
Nope. - Louis Gray
Yes. - Micah from FFHound(roid)!
For the record my car also has a tape deck. - Steve C Team Marina
probably ones I printed out from Google and neglected to throw away. - Steele Lawman
yes, I keep an atlas of the US in there - ellbeecee
Yes, several. - Anne Bouey from iPhone
Not anymore. I do have an atlas at home for getting a general sense of places I might want to visit. - Amit Patel
I should add, part of the reason I have a couple of paper maps are the couple of times I've been stuck somewhere needing directions when either my phone has died, or there's no service. - Jennifer Dittrich
Yes, mostly for CA, but I have east coast ones at home in the file cabinet. I think there are a few AAA guidebooks in the car, too, come to think of it. - Corinne L
Yes, absolutely, city maps where we drive frequently. CSAA even mails maps (since the nearby office closed). - Walt Crawford
I still have some Hagstrom county books from the 90's, but no car. :P - April Russo
I don't think so. It's entirely possible there are still one or two atlases in the ex-wife's car, though (which used to be mine). - COMPLICATED MR. NOODLE
I didn't realize it but yes, we do. Joy actually pulled one out of the glove box the other day and began using it! - Jim: with more caffeine!
I have a small Yellow Pages which has a local street directory, and I think we have a Gold Coast map in there somewhere. - Melly - #TeamMarina
Yes. - joey
Yes I do. - Stefano.
Nope. Last time was in 2010. - Kevin Johnson from Android
yes - Tamara J. B.
I did when I had a car. I never used them, but I liked them being there. Before GPS went crazy, I used maps religiously. :) - Jenny H. from Android
Nope. - Yvonne Renee from FFHound!
Yes (only for Rome. but wasn't opened in ages) - Xabaras (G.O.)
At home. GPS in car. - Janet from FFHound!
I've never owned a car. - Eivind
Yes paper maps still rock but then so does Onstar - WarLord
Anne Bouey
Thought I'd give Holly's posted recipe a try! Peanut Butter Cup S'Mores Dip
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how was it?!?! :D - holly #ravingfangirl
Very, very rich! - Anne Bouey
it looks delicious! - holly #ravingfangirl
But incredibly easy to make...a real treat! - Anne Bouey
OMG i'll pay for gas if you drive it down - Steve C Team Marina
Yum! - Louis Gray
*faints* - MoTO: Team Marina
Are you kidding.....looks fabulous! But oh so sweet! - Bob Jones
that looks nice - sandra hall
Ken Gidley
Testing - my feed is strangely quiet (like no updates for 19+ hours) - is there anybody OUT THERE?
Nice shirt. - Meg VMeg
So strange, usually have dozens of updates every day, but today - silence. - Ken Gidley
Still nothing on my feed but my own post. Not paused by mistake. Logged out and back in. Same on Safari on Mac and on iPhone. - Ken Gidley from iPhone
Everyone's at Burning Man. - Louis Gray
In the rain.... - Bob Jones
I see a few updates today, but most are marked as having occurred 18+ hours ago. I seem to have slipped into some sort of 'update once a day' timeslip. :) - Ken Gidley
Maybe something related to javascript or auto-reloading? - Brian Johns
Holly's favorite Anna
Stephen! Holy shitsnacks! Are you okay?
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He must have just gotten back from Burning Man! - Yvonne Renee from FFHound!
That's awesome. <3 - Louis Gray
Message to me: Zeigen passed you by 108,756 steps. - Louis Gray
Get on that Louis! Lol! - Yvonne Renee from FFHound!
Joe
Joe
I'm tired. Maybe I should go to sleep?
that is a generally accepted practice when one is tired. - holly #ravingfangirl
unless you are Louis Gray. - holly #ravingfangirl
I just tried that. Doesn't help. - Uli
Sleep is unproductive and a waste of time. - Louis Gray
Johnny
I just had cause to google Penny from Inspector Gadget. I have Safesearch disabled. Sometimes I fucking hate you, Internet.
Did you Bing it? - Louis Gray
Louis Gray
Hmm. How high should I get this tonight? 30k? 35k? 40k?
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First day of school meant I could walk the kids there (and return home). Then I walked to the Google shuttle, walked a bit to lunch (and back), and then, on a lark, I decided to time walking the Steven's Creek Trail home from Google. It took one hour and forty minutes to do a bit over 7 miles. - Louis Gray
So if I want to get home at 5, I just have to leave work at 3:20. :) - Louis Gray
Not too worried, Anna. - Louis Gray
33,358. - Louis Gray
Wow. How are your feet today? - Stephen Mack from iPhone
All is well. I've broken 50k twice, so 33k is fine. Over my 12k goal today too. - Louis Gray
Fitbit Fans
People who track their sleep with Fitbit see improvement in just a few weeks. https://www.fitbit.com/flex https://twitter.com/fitbit...
Says the company who sells the product. :) - (Curtis) Alan Jackson
Sleep is unproductive and a waste of time. - Louis Gray
Unless of course, the tracker leads to greater sleep disruption... in which case they stop using it. - Hedgehog
Stephen Mack
The zip line whisperer (a Burning Man #saturdayff story)
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So it was Sunday, September 1, 2013, the last full day of the art festival in the Black Rock Desert called Burning Man (http://www.burningman.com/), and I was walking somewhere along C street near 6:30 street, and I had passed by this zip line at a theme camp every day for a week. - Stephen Mack
And I had kept telling myself, "Oh, yeah, have to ride that zip line." But I realized on that Sunday that I'd best give it a try now or there wouldn't be another chance. - Stephen Mack
So I climbed on up the first platform. - Stephen Mack
And then I clambered up the ladder for the second platform. - Stephen Mack
Still more ladders? Okay. Up I go. - Stephen Mack
And then there's a bit of a queue. A few people in front of me. Great view. 40 feet up, maybe? - Stephen Mack
(The photo I chose here is not the actual zip line in question, which I didn't actually get a photo of. Instead it was lifted from http://davepics.com/Album... .) - Stephen Mack
Then I see the last little climb up to the top of the works, a complicated bit of steps and ladders and a seated arrangement, where you grab the line and slip forward and hurtle down to the mattress-padded landing area below -- and I can hear the man with the zip line camp giving the instructions. Tall guy, long beard, shades, calm, good sense of humor. I don't know his name, but let's call him Fred. - Stephen Mack
No GoPro video or Google Glass? - Louis Gray
A woman goes down, not quite following instructions but flipping all over the place and yipping her excitement. - Stephen Mack
I look down. Now, I'm not afraid of heights, but it occurs to me I'm pretty high off the ground. - Stephen Mack
A guy goes down, he's Swiss I think, and he's cheering. - Stephen Mack
And then the guy in front of me, it's his turn. He's breathing pretty hard. "I'm afraid of heights," he says. - Stephen Mack
And Fred nods. "That's no problem," Fred says. "You can do this." - Stephen Mack
And the guy starts to panic. "I want to go down," he says quickly. "I can't do this." - Stephen Mack
And Fred nods. "Sure," says Fred. "You can go down. I'll help you climb back down. But are you sure that's what you want?" - Stephen Mack
And the guy swallows and says, "No, I want to ride the zip line. But I can't." - Stephen Mack
And Fred begins whispering to him. Fred has his hand on this guy's knee. And the guy is nodding. And Fred is speaking calmly, slowly, never letting go of the guy's knee. And before too long the guy takes one last nod, and one last look at Fred, and then he's off, a slide forward from the chair into thin air, only his hands on the line, and he's zipping down 40 feet to the playa below. - Stephen Mack
Then Fred winks at me. "You heard all that?" - Stephen Mack
I nod, and am ready to go. - Stephen Mack
"That guy had a hard time," I say lamely. Fred nods. And he winks at me again. - Stephen Mack
"That guy did fucking awesome," says Fred. - Stephen Mack
... - Stephen Mack
Fred is the zip line whisperer. He's fucking awesome. That zip line camp is fucking awesome. Burning Man is fucking awesome. Being afraid of heights is not so awesome. But being afraid of heights, and riding a 40 foot zip line in 100 degree heat in the desert? That's fucking awesome. - Stephen Mack
--fin-- - Stephen Mack
Louis: Nah. Neither of those items would go over well, and the Google Glass in particular I don't think would last long in that environment. The dust would destroy it. - Stephen Mack
I had my own zipline whisperer once. I was taking a "challenge ropes course" my second year in college, trying to cope with my fear of heights. Even though it was terrifying for me, I completed every 'high element' of the course, including the "Pamper Pole" (you can imagine). The instructor and my fellow students were awesome! They never stopped being supportive and encouraging, no matter how much I panicked. My hat's off to Fred. He sounds like good people. :) - Jenny H. from Android
(Oh, and Tamara and Adam once talked me through the zipline above the Fremont Street Experience. They're also very good people!) - Jenny H. from Android
I rode the zipline they put over Robson Square in downtown Vancouver for the 2010 Olympics. Free ride, but long lines... I went late at night for a shorter line. I figured I could always ride another zipline later, but how many chances would I get to ride one in a city? - Andrew C (✔)
Stephen, someone put a GoPro on a hula hoop in 2012. http://www.youtube.com/watch... - NOT THE CRICKET
Also, that guy's awesome. - NOT THE CRICKET
Jimminy, interesting video (although they seemed to be going for a particular body type, geez) -- I like how the different frame of reference (that is, from the hula hoop's point of view) alters everything. But I think there's a difference between using a GoPro as part of an art exhibit versus just wearing one and going around filming people. Not to say that people don't do it, but it's not something I'd do on the playa. - Stephen Mack
Stepheb, yeah I noticed the body type thing, I actually thought there were some guys from memory, but I guess not. - NOT THE CRICKET from iPhone
Louis Gray
When Priced for Perfection, Startups Not Given Room for Error - http://blog.louisgray.com/2014...
When Priced for Perfection, Startups Not Given Room for Error
"When a private company sees incredible media visibility, and scores a fast-ramping, highly active customer base, it's usually assumed similarly climbing revenue isn't far behind. For game changers like Facebook and Twitter, who commanded sky high valuations privately before earning them publicly, this made sense. But for companies who are seen to have missed expectations, the descent in public perception and media love can be fast and steep - forcing pivots and other odd behavior that can be somewhat puzzling to the outside world." - Louis Gray from Bookmarklet
something about the layout screams "Best of Craigslist" to me. - Big Joe Silence
Brian Johns
I was going to give Stephen Mack a pass on the whole "celebrity deaths come in threes" because I figured Robin Williams was big enough to count for three. But now with Lauren Bacall, I'm not so sure.
Don't mess with me, Johns. - Stephen Mack from iPhone
Start a 48 hour clock and we'll see. - Brian Johns
Mack speaks the truth. Always in threes. - Mary Carmen
Does the nascar driver killed over the weekend count as #1? I don't want to hear of another celeb death... - Lola Bean (Penguin)
Ooh - good idea. If we don't have anything better to go with by Thursday night we'll go with him and call it a triad. - Brian Johns
I stand by my previous posts debunking the "celebrity deaths come in threes" superstition. http://www.zeigen.com/blog... - Stephen Mack from iPhone
Does Philip Seymour Hoffman not count? - Kevin (aka ThreadKilla)
oh my god. - Laura Norvig
The fact you can't name the NASCAR killer means he doesn't count. GL to all celebs. - Louis Gray
According to my mom, Ed Nelson from Peyton Place & The Twilight Zone is #3. - Lola Bean (Penguin) from iPhone
If Thursday night (an arbitrary deadline) comes and goes and nobody else (arbitrarily) famous enough dies then I will consider that scientific proof that the "celebrities die in threes" thing is a myth. I may be willing to join the “Celebrity deaths come in 1.7s” camp based on this very scientific data. - Brian Johns
Followup and Conclusion: After an extensive period of data collection and analysis over the last 4 days, I have changed my mind and joined Stephen's 1.7 bandwagon. Basically, I picked Robin Williams as a test and I haven't seen two other similarly noteworthy celebrities die so I'm going to generalize that experience over the entire realm of possibility and call it a scientific fact. If... more... - Brian Johns
Good analysis, Sparky! - Stephen Mack
This is how science is done, except I should have gotten a grant. - Brian Johns
Jay Adams has passed away. They do come in threes. - NOT THE CRICKET from iPhone
Who? - Stephen Mack from iPhone
One of the Z-Boys/ Lords of Dogtown. One of the guys who was involved in evolving skateboarding to it's modern style. - NOT THE CRICKET from iPhone
Louis Gray
Achievement Unlocked: Throwing Out the 1st Pitch at an A's Game: http://blog.louisgray.com/2014...
P.S... I really miss the FF bookmarklet working. :( - Louis Gray
which browser? still works like a champ for me in Firefox. - Big Joe Silence
i miss the bookmarklet but dang that's rad! - kendrak
Grats, Louis! - Stephen Mack from iPhone
Johnny
This week Facebook has shown me that often the people who rage the hardest against being judged are the most judgemental pricks around.
Don't judge me, bro. - Louis Gray
Stephen Mack
Celebrity deaths: A statistical analysis - http://www.zeigen.com/blog...
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A statistical refutation of http://friendfeed.com/davisfr... . The image above can be viewed full-size at http://www.zeigen.com/blog... . My conclusion? Celebrity deaths come in one-point-sevens, not #threes. - Stephen Mack
Awesome - Chieze Okoye
Thanks, Chieze! I enjoyed crunching actual data. - Stephen Mack
No refutations? Have I really killed it this time? - Stephen Mack from iPhone
I'm on a plane! - Kevin Fox from iPhone
See my blog comment -- From some perspective, deaths *always* come in 3's, you just have to see what the distribution of durations between deaths D and D+2 are. :) I'd like to know: What's the median (or 90, 95%ile) time for which "all deaths come in 3's" is true. - Steve and 4 other people
BTW, would also be nice to compare vs. a random control sample of a similar distribution to actual celebrity death data. - Steve and 4 other people
Steve, I've seen your blog comment now, and you've proposed an interesting approach. When I get some time I'll post the CSV data and run the analysis you suggest. However, you can tell at a glance from just the visual representation that the duration between D, D+1, and D+2 will vary wildly. - Stephen Mack
Davis, how do you propose testing for the global population? What groupings of the deaths do you think exist? Geography? - Stephen Mack
Also, Davis, you're right about July 99. You've got me thinking of another simple analysis: Number of deaths per month, and what percentage of the time that number is evenly divisible by three. - Stephen Mack
Steve, for the control data, what do you suggest? National obituaries? Death records for all inhabitants of a particular county? - Stephen Mack
No, just a random distribution. You know how many deaths occurred over your interval, so just simulate it assuming each person has a 1/Nth chance of dying each day (where N is the number of days in the sample). - Steve and 4 other people
And yup, I know the distribution will be pretty wide, and that's what's interesting about it. :) You should be able to compare that with the random distribution to see if there's any difference. - Steve and 4 other people
Man, this conversation reminds me of the stuff I liked about my stats class... 8^D - Chieze Okoye
Steve, I took a look at the suggestion of days between D and D+x as you suggested in more detail in your blog comment. For every metric (average days, median, etc.) the data is better explained by groups of 2 than groups of 3. Performance for all groupings was pathetic, with an average of at least 8 days overall even for groups of 2. The standard deviation was at least 4.5 days, which backs up my previous prediction that it would vary wildly. - Stephen Mack
Davis, I took a look at number of deaths per month as well. The number of months where the total deaths was divisible by three was... wait for it ... 38.2%, close to expected value of 33.3%. Average number of deaths per month is actually 7.7. - Stephen Mack
A revised version of the spreadsheet with new tabs ("Avg Days of Span" and "Calendar" respectively) for the two new methods is now available, http://docs.google.com/filevie... - Stephen Mack
I've also provided a data file called CORPUS.TXT with just the names and dates, in CSV format: http://docs.google.com/leaf... - Stephen Mack
If I'm reading that right, the ~50%ile of the number of days between D and D+2 is 7. To me, that says "half the time, 3 (or more) celebrities have died in the same week" That seems like the kind of thing that would easily turn into an urban myth. If you go out to 14 days, you get to nearly 87%! - Steve and 4 other people
Steve, yes. But 50% success is awful. Another way of saying that is, "half the time, when a celebrity dies, only 1 or 2 celebrities will die that week." So the myth at BEST is 50% right, when you allow a FULL WEEK for the deaths to coincide. You'd do better if the myth is that "celebrity deaths come in 2s" -- about half the time, 2 celebrities die in a period just 2 days apart. - Stephen Mack
Put another way: Using your method, "celebrity deaths come in twos" is more accurate than "celebrity deaths come in threes." So the superstition is wrong. - Stephen Mack
For an urban myth, I think 50% success rate is pretty good. :) - Steve and 4 other people
It's not 50%. To get 50%, you have to include 3 OR MORE (so, sometimes 4, sometimes 5, sometimes 10) -- and that's with AN ENTIRE WEEK of allowance. Remember, other variations of the myth (celebrities die in 2s, celebrities die in 1.7s) do better . You've seen the spreadsheet. There's no method where "celebrities die in 3s" has any statistical validity whatsoever. This myth has been 100% debunked. - Stephen Mack
The idea of 70% dead celebrity is kind of gruesome ;) (He's only mostly dead....) - Victor Ganata
He got better. - Stephen Mack
Send this data to Mythbusters! - Ken Gidley
Unless the Mythbusters team gets to actually blow up the celebrities to test whether they clump together in threes or not, I don't think this myth is quite telegenic enough for them. - Stephen Mack
Slacy created a graph in a separate thread here: http://friendfeed.com/slacy... - Stephen Mack
50/50 after 4 votes. Please go and vote your conscience! - Stephen Mack
I think what's missing is a solid theory of celebritigenesis. Without that, it's hard to figure out what the null hypothesis would be. - Victor Ganata
Rue McClannihan makes three!:-P Actually Stephen, I've got some interesting analysis to dovetail with your own that I hope to write up in the next few days. - Kevin Fox
Victor, I think stiffs.com's approach is good. A celebrity is hard to define, but (like many other things) we know one when we see one. Having an objective panel that independently answers "have you heard of this person?" is about as good a criteria as I can think of. - Stephen Mack
Kevin, I thought it was supposed to be Art/Gary/Dennis and now Rue starting a new series? This superstition is so hard to nail down! But regardless, I look forward to your analysis. - Stephen Mack
Stephen, I guess that's just it--where exactly is the threshold for celebrity vs non-celebrity? Are you famous if 1 million people know you, but not if only 999,999 people know you? I guess my question is, what do we actually think we're measuring? ;) - Victor Ganata
Art isn't famous to me, so it'd be Gary, Dennis and Rue. - Kevin Fox
Victor, it's an excellent question. If you want to create your own personal list of living celebrities, we can then monitor that list as they pass away and test whether or not they die in threes (whatever THAT means), and then judge whether or not the superstition is true for YOU. - Stephen Mack
Kevin, funny, I'd never heard of Rue before today. (Never watched Golden Girls.) It proves Victor's point. The subjective nature of the superstition is what makes it hard to prove or falsify. - Stephen Mack
The subjective nature makes it much easier to prove, just harder to tell whether it's meaningful. If, in any string of 10 deaths, there are clumps of three that are meaningful for one person that person will claim it to be an instance of the 'death in 3s' phenomenon, and for them it will be right. They'll have heard of several other instances of 'death in 3s' from their friends over the... more... - Kevin Fox
Now that I think of it, the null hypothesis would be thus: if celebrities *don't* die in clumps of three, then there should be roughly equal spacing between their deaths (+/- some error), regardless of what time frame you choose. So all you have to do is pick a threshold duration, wait for celebrities to die, and see if there's a statistically significant difference between the actual death rate versus if they just died at regular intervals instead. - Victor Ganata
So say we pick a duration of a week. If the null hypothesis is correct, then they should each die roughly within 2 days and 8 hours of each other. If it's tighter than that (we'd have to do the math to see at what point it would be statistically significant) then the alternative hypothesis is true, and they *do* die in clumps. - Victor Ganata
Kevin, exactly right. My first debunking (from 2008) used the same argument: "This belief is an example of selective perception (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki...); You tend to remember the times when there was a grouping of three seemingly-related deaths in a short period of time, which reinforces the belief, but tend to forget the times when there wasn’t a pattern. As... more... - Stephen Mack
Another psychological factor to consider is mental temporal boundaries. If the weekend is a memory reset, where things on the far end of a weekend feel more removed, then three deaths in a work week, or in a single weekend, could be perceived as a clump even if the boundary between the first and the one previous to it is less than the boundary between the first and the third, just because the one before the work week 'feels significantly longer ago' - Kevin Fox
Victor, the raw data is available. (See links above.) There are 1,422 deaths over 5,669 days. So you expect the average death to be about 4 days apart, which in fact is what the data shows. The null hypothesis you propose in fact has strong significance in the data. - Stephen Mack
So there you have it. Proof that celebrities don't die in clumps but actually die at regular intervals. :D - Victor Ganata
Thank you, sir! *shakes hands with Victor* - Stephen Mack
Still like this thread. - Micah from FFHound(roid)!
Thanks, Micah. (In reviewing the above: I miss Chieze, and I'm still mad at Davis F. for deleting his account.) - Stephen Mack
Bumping from April 8, 2013 to today. - Stephen Mack
Bumping posts always comes in threes. - Louis Gray
Kevin Fox
RT @SteveMartinToGo: I could not be more stunned by the loss of Robin Williams, mensch, great talent, acting partner, genuine soul.
:( - Louis Gray
Stephen Mack
Let me tell you about the worst allergic reaction I've ever had in my life. #saturdayff
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Growing up, from my earliest memories, I always knew I was allergic to nuts -- particularly walnuts, pecans, and cashews. (But not so much for almonds or pine nuts, and not at all for chestnuts and coconuts.) - Stephen Mack
And while I never liked peanuts or peanut butter, I was never allergic to them. - Stephen Mack
When I tried to say I was allergic to peanuts, my dad would be the first to correct me. - Stephen Mack
"Peanuts are legumes, not nuts," he'd point out. - Stephen Mack
I have a vivid memory as a schoolboy on some field trip to a Roman ruin somewhere, my mother had packed a peanut butter sandwich for me for my lunch. And I didn't like the taste, the smell, the texture, or the way it stuck to the roof of my mouth. But I never had any allergic reactions to it. - Stephen Mack
So I had to admit my dad was right. - Stephen Mack
I was hypersensitive to nuts being in foods. Even a small amount would cause my mouth and lips to itch, my stomach to be upset, and the insides of my ears to itch. - Stephen Mack
My brother Phil thought it was psychosomatic, and would sometimes try to sneak in nuts in foods. But I could always tell. - Stephen Mack
In college, someone made me some packaged ravioli once, and in one half-bite I could tell there were nuts. It turned out there were pecans, listed as the very last ingredient. - Stephen Mack
During high school, I remember at a weekend church social, I had a slice of cake and was immediately miserable. Hazelnuts were to blame. - Stephen Mack
So. I avoided peanuts, learned to ask for ingredients, and went on with my life. - Stephen Mack
Senior year of college, I was with my friends John and Ruth, and we stopped for lunch at some food trucks off Telegraph. There was a Chinese place, and I liked the look of the Kung Pao chicken. At that time, I didn't know that Kung Pao chicken was made with peanuts. - Stephen Mack
I asked the food truck vendor if there were any nuts, and he emphatically said there were not. So I ordered it. - Stephen Mack
When it was ready, I was dismayed when I saw the peanuts, but I just ate around them. - Stephen Mack
Today, I would have returned it, or given it away, or just ordered another meal. But I was a hungry college student, with a limited budget, so I didn't feel I had a choice. Eating out was relatively rare -- mostly I made a lot of ramen. - Stephen Mack
About five minutes after we finished, Ruth, John and I were walking off somewhere, and I started itching. - Stephen Mack
I started scratching myself, not even consciously. - Stephen Mack
Ruth, who was pre-med, noticed. She pointed out that my color had changed, and that I was scratching my arms, back, legs more and more. - Stephen Mack
I pulled up one of my pant legs. There were nickel-sized hives all over. - Stephen Mack
A few minutes later, the insides of my ears started itched, the worst it's ever felt. And my lips started swelling up. - Stephen Mack
Ruth advised me to go to the student health building. - Stephen Mack
It was clear on the other side of campus. So I headed off. - Stephen Mack
As I walked, I felt my breathing become more labored. - Stephen Mack
Today, I would have called 911. Back then, a dumb college kid, I just started running. - Stephen Mack
By the time I got to Cowell Student Hospital, the itching all over my body was unbearable. My whole face was swollen as well. But fortunately it hadn't become any harder to breathe. - Stephen Mack
After a surprisingly long wait (during which time I could hear a doctor discussing things with a student behind the curtain next to me, and overheard the doctor say the word "gangrene," which freaked me out), they ended up giving me an epinephrine shot. My heart raced faster than I've ever felt, before or since, but I could feel the itching stop almost immediately. - Stephen Mack
Before too long, I was back to normal. I raced off to rejoin John and Ruth. And to this day, I avoid peanuts. - Stephen Mack
But it's not just that -- the smell of peanuts is horrific to me. If you're eating peanut butter, or a Reese's, I may have to leave the room. - Stephen Mack
our youngest has this allergy as well. always carrying a pair of epipens. - Big Joe Silence
In contrast to me having acquired the allergy in my teens, both of my kids were born allergic to peanut butter. But their symptoms are different from mine. If they eat any amount of peanuts, they just throw up. - Stephen Mack
Part 2 of this #saturdayff will continue off that theme next Saturday... Stay tuned! - Stephen Mack
--fin-- - Stephen Mack
That sounds crazy scary - also, gangrene? Sheesh. Way to totally freak you out when you're already having a pretty bad day. - Jennifer Dittrich
Joe, we carried epipens for a long while as well, but fortunately it doesn't seem required any longer. - Stephen Mack
Jennifer, I was so freaked out by that! And then afterwards I became super curious about what was going on with him, and wanted to peak in, but I didn't. - Stephen Mack
(Although now I think about it, it was probably hypothetical, the doctor may have been saying something like, "And if you don't take care of cleaning the wound regularly blah blah blah risk of developing gangrene.") - Stephen Mack
Great story and I feel you. My allergies have changed a lot over the years, but I'm a life-long sufferer of sooprize! hives. I also wake up with them almost every morning (on my face and neck). I look forward to reading your next installment! - Jenny H. from Android
Jenny, that must really upset Eivind. Especially since The Hives are Swedish. - Spidra Webster
Haha! I do enjoy their music. ;) - Jenny H. from Android
Ack, Jenny! I started getting menstrual hives a few cycles ago, and that was pretty freaky. I'm still trying to adjust. - Alix May from FFHound(roid)!
I'm pretty sure it's dust mites for me. :-/ - Jenny H. from Android
Wow Stephan, that is truly one of the worthy shares. - Janet
:-( Kung-pao chicken really is delicious. - Amit Patel
While my peanut allergy isn't as severe, I can relate. - Micah from FFHound(roid)!
I'm sorry you've had to go through all that, Stephen. I look forward to the next installment, though. - Spidra Webster
My food allergies have been getting worse and I never associated allergies with itchy ears, but now maybe I will! - Yvonne Renee from FFHound!
That's nutty. - Louis Gray
Oh, the itchy ears will drive you crazy. I have been living with that problem for the last 30 years, and it gets really bad in summer. When it first started I ran to the doctor thinking I had a bug crawling around in my ear (only 1 ear was itching that time). As it was explained to me, the itching isn't really in the ears...it's all in your throat, and you only think it's your ears that are itching. Mine isn't caused by foods, though. It's all airborne allergens that end up in my throat, from breathing. - April Russo
Yeesh! I can't fathom the people in the hospital making you wait to get treated. Glad you're alive! :) - Zulema ❧ spicy cocoa tart from Android
Steve and 4 other people
Coming back from Vegas makes the Bay Area seem strangely humid.
It's not you. It's me. - Louis Gray
Our offices are just as freezing cold as the typical Casino, which is a good thing. - Steve and 4 other people
Monique Judge
I've missed quite a few of his zingers, but I think I'm caught up now, so I'd like to send Steve to his corner until further notice. He has repeatedly violated our before 10pm rule.
You need to cut him a little break; new baby means he's sleep-deprived and not really responsible for his posts. ;-) - Anne Bouey
OK Anne. Just for you. <3 - Monique Judge
Love you, Momo. :) - Anne Bouey
I love you too. <3 - Monique Judge
Sleep is unproductive and a waste of time. - Louis Gray
Hahaha that's awesome Monique. After consulting with my lawyer Anne I must humbly plead guilty to all charges and throw myself at the mercy of the court. I am hoping the court is lined with mattresses so I can get some unproductive waste of time in. You are cordially given two free passes to break our 10pm adult entertainment rule as reparation. - Steve C Team Marina
Stephen Mack
Google+, you do not know me AT ALL.
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OR... OR... the app knows you better than you know yourself. - Louis Gray
OR...OR... Louis is deluded. BURN! - Stephen Mack
Kevin Fox
I finally gave in to peer pressure and added the hot chat app everyone's talking about. https://twitter.com/kfury...
Kevin is such a trend-setter - WoH: Professor MOTHRA
And here I am, just commenting on FriendFeed. - Louis Gray
But are you, really? - WoH: Professor MOTHRA
No. Just my bot. - Louis Gray
But Friendfeed is dead, so we are all not really here. Unrelated, did anyone else take the red pill? - Josh Haley
Pill?? They told me it had to be a suppository. THANKS OBAMACARE. - Micah from FFHound(roid)!
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