+102 for Bill Waterson references in picture Kevin or words Sinterclas
- Steve C
cute but what happened to festivus this year?
- Laura Norvig
Merry Christmas to the FriendFeed team. You guys rock! FriendFeed reacts quickly and you're adding wonderful features all the time (Thanks soooo much for the "edit" feature.)
- Mitchell Tsai
Happy Holidays FF crue -- you've made this an excellent and memorable year for many of us. Facebook couldn't have done it without you! :)
- Christopher Galtenberg
w00t you gave me the best online year in 15 years!!! ;p Thanks a lot, everyone, for what you've done here XD
- ElijahBailey-Zu of FF <0,
Sigh. Sometimes it is the little touches, like seasonal logos or easter eggs, that mark a site as a living project, and that you really miss when the developers have all moved on to something else.
- Michael R. Bernstein
Agree on the whole. I always find these categories a little artificial: Really "Forrester-speak". :) I think the recommendations are the most interesting. I'd make a separate post out of that.
- Meryn Stol
You say it yourself: "What’s interesting isn’t this vision for the future, but what it holds in store for brands, " . I'd like these recommendations to be fleshed out with concrete first steps to take. Doesn't have to be more than links to relevant resources.
- Meryn Stol
Meryn The recommendations are fleshed out in the actual reports. Our clients (brands) have access to see them.
- Jeremiah Owyang
Hmm ok... Then I'll need to get the details elsewhere I guess. :)
- Meryn Stol
Interesting categorization of the development into eras. Any consideration to the impact of scale on the 5th era? Just as a recent example with Facebook, their format evolution was not well received by what is not an insignificant number of members, and yet the reality is - that change - negative impact not withstanding is not rolling back.
- Patrick Boegel
There will be a give and take between communities and brands. The thing is, Facebook doesn't have a competitive alternative that users could go to. In my report, we suggest that active communities could define specs for products, and bid MULTIPLE companies to build it.
- Jeremiah Owyang
I completely understand that Jeremiah, just wondering if the nature of scale impacted or perhaps better said impacts the thought process for very complex long term brand relationships, ie Health Insurance, Financial Services, a college/university choice, where consversation and user invovlement can be complicated. Very interested in the full report either way. Thx.
- Patrick Boegel
good stuff Jeremiah, enjoyed and some good thought provokers there for the future
- Richard Binhammer
Nice paper but really expensive for young people. $750 means $41 for page.
- Alp
Great information, understanding the future's potential is more important than ever on the social web.
- Maria Reyes-McDavis
Interesting, but very general and hard to apply. I see companies more as å provide of tools/stage for conversation, aka the gold rush mining vs selling tools
- Anders Dahlberg
Alp, Many of Forrester's clients are large brands who have a subscription. We're still sharing a great deal on this blog, and have given the report to bloggers to cover, so there's value to be had there.
- Jeremiah Owyang
Jeremiah (and the team), a great piece of work and, I imagine, a labour of both love and loathing at times! I have been very interested in this area as I have looked at the shift in skills to deliver social media activity changes from one of basic coding knowledge to much more human, interactive skills.
- Paul Fabretti
Fantastic article! I found it SO intriguing that I've even printed it out!
- J. D. Ebberly
"How Brands Should Prepare" is a great bit of information. Jeremiah, it would be nice (i'd be reading) if you expanded in future blog posts about the "How Brands Should Prepare".
- frank barry
That's likely to be a research report I'm thinking about writing Frank
- Jeremiah Owyang
Probably correct in assuming that most online social networks will neither spawn nor solidify to the point of being considered ‘affinity groups’ with the level of cohesion, unified budgetary authority or organized implementation capability of NGOs, churches, or employee aggregations. Even in the era of social commerce. I hope I’m wrong.
- A Mitchell
Great post, understanding the future's potential is more important than ever on the social web.
- Vlad Hrouda
I was thinking about this today - I don't remember 4 or 5 entire tech conferences devoted to just Facebook in a single year. That makes me think something's different about Twitter. Maybe you're right on the reasons - I'm not sure what it is, but Twitter has the celebrity appeal that is drawing more people percentage-wise than Facebook. Interesting to see if Facebook can turn things around (I have faith they will).
- Jesse Stay
Jesse: I've talked with dozens of businesses and they all say Facebook isn't working as well for them.
- Robert Scoble
Facebook needs to fix the fundamental issues I laid out in that post before businesses will get excited. Hopefully the FriendFeed team can help them there.
- Robert Scoble
Robert yeah - that's why I was one of the few excited about the FriendFeed acquisition. I think it has the chance to fix those problems. I agree completely. In the meantime I'm going to make Facebook better for business on SocialToo. :-)
- Jesse Stay
i think robert's hit it on the head. FB is simply too cumbersome and too information-poor to be of value to businesses; twitter's extreme simplicity ("just" a stream) and ability to be mined make it easy and valuable for businesses to use. i'm on a trip to nyc right now and am amazed at how much local businesses have picked up using Twitter.
- empireofno
Sigh, Posterous is still not working for me. Not good.
- Robert Scoble
Gus, it's now working again, thanks!
- Robert Scoble
Twitter is open to the world. Facebook content is only really fully open if you subscribe. Facebook has an image problem where business is concerned, basically it's perceived to be full of kids wittering on about drunken nights out. Similar opinions could be held about Twitter but successes are easy to see and the 140 character limit also limits the bullshit. Twitter is an old fashioned...
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- Gilbert Harding
It so baffling how such a mess of a site that is USELESS w/out a 3rd party app has such a HUGE adoption rate. On second thought, I blame you guys, Robert & co., for bringing the masses over. Now, no one wants to leave! ;)
- Mona Nomura
it's not the site itself that is really the useful part, it's the platform it has become. Actually, I'd venture to say that, since most people still use the web interface, it explains why most people still don't see the power of Twitter. I've always disliked it, but it's success in penetrating...uh...everything cannot be denied.
- Rahsheen ™, Coach Rah
Maybe power is a little strong, LOL. I've never noticed the search being broken, though.
- Rahsheen ™, Coach Rah
@rasheen @mona - it's irrelevant whether the useful part is the site or a third party app. No third party would exists without Twitter. How smart is to let others do the hard work at your place (if you'll be able to make money from this)? ;-)
- Markingegno - Donato
Maybe it's the tools I use (or don't use) - pre Gnomedex I had two people monitoring on Tweet Deck, two on Co-Tweet, and Chris would monitor via web...and whatever he uses. We'd STILL have discrepancies. Baffling.
- Mona Nomura
:) Meant to comment here..copying text from above. I am a total geek w/ my hands on my keyboard 71% of a 24 hr. day, yet I frequently find myself frustrated w/ FB's extremely non intuitive web interface...Now....that being said ~ today I found myself conversing fast, fluid & furious very Tweet-Like from the new FB iPhone App while lounging at the Pool...Who knows what I'm talking about?...
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- Zaneology
Facebook's design is definitely crap and makes the site a PITA to use for me. Too much going on.
- Rahsheen ™, Coach Rah
I think Twitter is super over-hyped. Five to 10 billion? That's way too much, comparing to traditional industries. Take for example Israeli company Iscar (www.iscar.com) that is considered a world leading supplier of precision carbide metal working tools (cutting tools), has billions of dollars in revenues, employs thousands of workers all around the world and reports an average of 15%...
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- Nir Ben Yona
O_O 5-10 BILLION? noooo way.. maybe 550 million at MAX, but no billion dollar ranges.
- Kevin Nunez
I agree w/ billion - the entire market is shifting because of social media, led by Twitter.
- Mona Nomura
Scobleizer: I could not disagree with you more about "Facebook needs to fix the fundamental issues I laid out in that post before businesses will get excited". Look at companies like Zynga who are making high double digit to low triple digit millions on top of the Facebook platform. Also Playfish, Slide, Playdom, etc. You're just wrong on this one--businesses are already there, and making lots of money.
- Eric Florenzano
after years of avoiding it, I broke down and registered for a FB account. the inability for me to choose whatever user name I want is close to a deal breaker for me. But I went ahead and registered anyway. After 30 minutes I got tired of all of the customization and quit.
- jbrotherlove
So far, facebook and twitter have the same problem: monetization (I read your post about Sushi restaurants paying to list coupons next to their mentions in search results which could have some legs but it still needs to be proven). The other problem for twitter is the sign up process: it is still way too hard to find the right people based on your interests and as a result a lot of...
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- Edwin Khodabakchian
Just as AIM was adopted by the masses in the late 90's, Twitter is being adopted now. I think, in the next decade, competing services will arise making Twitter just one service among several status/comment services feeding into a more broad (more robust) platform that has yet to be defined. Just as you can now chat between AIM and Yahoo IM, you'll be able to interact between Twitter and...
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- Gus
I not sure that you're right, Robert. But I'm not sure that you're wrong either. Twitter going for that price would kick off another tech bubble.
- Roberto Bonini
I don't think I could ever engage with Twitter in its current form. The reason why businesses and celebrities like it is that it's so simple. The can post updates from their mobile phones and look at their follower count and feel good about themselves being popular. But I doubt that most people see more than 1% of the tweets from the people they follow. I also don't think that they can be worth anything like $5B because they have no assets.
- James Myatt
From posterous: Wow.. I completely disagree!! Yes it is good for the duration of a tweet and maybe even the duration of it's search (two weeks), but the entire world doesn't think/work within such a limited window. Yes the twitter environment is successful, but where would twitter be without all the layers and add-ons that actually make it easy to use? You can't (fully) figure that into...
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- Chris Myles
Did anyone else experience this? When I read the title I had this image of Scoble with a Dr. Evil (Austin Powers) voice over.. "Twitter is worth ... 5 BILLION dollars"!!
- Chris Myles
we need to wait for the Facebook/FF/Linkedin $1bn revenue IPO before we place that value on Twitter. An FB/FF/LI combination could justify a $10bn IPO in 2010. Twitter can't (yet).
- Thomas Power
Robert, this looks way off dude. 'Underhyped', what else is more hyped than Twitter these days? And how did you figure the $5-10 B valuation? It may end up being worth something, but wonder if any businesses actually quantified their ROI of using Twitter. Most seem to be on the bandwagon but fumbling in the dark trying to figure out if it means anything or not.
- Nalin Perera
Facebook got a jewel with the FriendFeed acquisition. The ability to create publicly available informaiton and track the social web is there for the taking, if they pursue it.
- Hutch Carpenter
@edwk / Edwin, totally agree with you that Twitter has huge issues in the user discovery department without the use of third party tools. It is pretty much inexcusable that they, instead of pushing the foolish "Suggested Users" thing, haven't simply INDEXED THE BIOS to allow (new) users to search over those with a simple searchbox: "What are you interested in? [type a keyword]"...
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- Alex Schleber
Great post Robert, Arrington and Gillmor were already preaching something similar and we definitely need strong Twitter competition now.
- Alberto Saavedra
This is retarded. How on earth is Twitter worth $5-$10 billion? I see absolutely no evidence of any revenue generating opportunities produced by Twitter. This guy needs to stop drinking the Kool-Aid.
- Scott Carmichael
Whether Twitter is worth $5+ billion today is an unfortunate focus here. I pay attention to how attractive Twitter is becoming to small and LOCAL businesses, small organizations, and small events--particularly in these tough economic times. It reminds me a lot of how small scale customers saw Google AdWords when it first became available. It was a breath of fresh air compared to the...
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- Loren Heiny
I think Twitter was stupid to turn down the $500 million offer from facebook. I doubt if Twitter will ever earn that kind of revenue in my lifetime.
- Garin Kilpatrick
Fajar, Feedburner already does implement PSHB. My blog currently updates my feedburner feeds instantly, and any service that supports PSHB gets updated from FeedBurner. It's not perfect (does not work fully with FriendFeed) but it works.
- Nick Young
That is *exactly* why FF will become more mainstream than twitter.. try explaining how to tweet to your parents (who are finally comfortable with email)!
- Chris Myles
Because pain of update process outweighs benefits of having the latest version.
- andrei_c
I almost always update. I can't stand not having the latest and greatest. I also usually ride the beta wave, too.
- Akiva Moskovitz
You should just be able to opt-in to silent updates. I don't get what the big issue is.
- Ryan Massie
+1 Akiva. Especially on the Mac, with Software Update to take care of things mostly automatically. My daughter won't run it, often for weeks at a time, and then she wonders why she gets weird symptoms on her mbp. (I'm sure Audrey will run hers when she goes to college - as will Matthew and Sarah - on her rolled-up piece of electronic paper that she connects with telepathically, or whatever we're using in 19 years.)
- MaryB, BrandingBroadOfFF
FWIW, I think people got fed up with upgrade pricing, useless feature bloat, and upgrades that seemed to break more things than they fixed.
- Gregg Morris
Ryan: Photoshop CS4 isn't worth paying to upgrade if you have CS3.
- Nicholas James
I always update. Linux has package/software managers which make it easy to update. Even automatically.
- Thierry R. Andriamirado
I update even when I shouldn't sometimes....like in the middle of a podcast episode.
- Hunt
Hunt, totally with you on that. I update my dev environment when I am in the middle of coding a function, then try to work out why my code is broken. Upgrading/updating is like an obsession for me.
- Travis Koger
from iPhone
People are lazy, that's why they don't do it.
- Hunt
from BuddyFeed
Several reasons: 1) They don't know an update is available. 2) If it a manual process, people are just lazy. 3) Don't want to spend money on the update if they are happy with the present version. 4) Afraid of bugs in new versions of software. ( I usually wait a week or so when a new version comes out to make sure there are no major bugs discovered out of the gate).
- Jeff P. Henderson
Because many updates are not real functional upgrade, but only some ads are refreshed. It's useless for us.
- Zhou
If people got fed up with upgrade pricing, the future will be a bit annoying for them. Because almost everything is "free" on internet. They wouldn't even lift a finger without any sales, so upgrade pricing is the way. note: upgrades can be cracked too, that's the neverending story .)
- bora "head" basman
T-Shirt & Travel Mug (in case we actually leave the house) Did it @ Cafe Press: Please note 1) I'm not an artist so I hope you like the organic nature of it. 2) I'm not looking to make any $ on this, any proceeds will be donated to my favorite charity http://guardsmen.org Here is the link: http://www.cafepress.com/kevinmu...
- Kevin Murray
Thanks Zee. I could have used http://tineye.com but too lazy to save, crop and upload the image for that. And Friendfeed is faster anyway ;) Their logo isn't easy to recall IMO.
- Jérôme Flipo
Use all of the above (except for the flowery icon, have no idea what that is), FF addict, and still have a life thank you very much. If I'm not on my PC I'm out :P
- LANjackal
World of Warcraft would consume the entire circle.
- dthree
I like having each service as an individual contact. Much easier. Can we see the same for Pownce?
- Chris Nixon
Well, IMified has taken bot to a next level.. I even created a customized option to check my google calendar appointments for today (a quick schedule for today) by interacting with bot! Not sure, if they have one for Pownce..
- Jigar Mehta
from bTT
One year later. Just bumping this because it's the one year anniversary of the only item on FriendFeed to get more than 400 likes. (452 at the moment)
- Ken Sheppardson
I've personally sent tech bloggers like TechCrunch hundreds of thousands of visits over the past year. So, why wouldn't they just shove in their headlines here?
- Robert Scoble
Participation drives more traffic - that's why they should participate. I had over 300 visitors on my blog yesterday from using and participating on FriendFeed. Twitter, where I have way more followers, I only had 60 visitors.
- Jesse Stay
Also, if you write about FriendFeed, it gives you traffic ;-)
- Jesse Stay
Jesse: looking at the lists at ffholic that isn't really that demonstratable.
- Robert Scoble
Robert, the reason I became visible on FriendFeed wasn't because I was a tech blogger, it was because I participated, and recognized FriendFeed early. There are a lot of folks who participate a ton who get traffic as a result. Spreading the wealth gives back. Always. And just because those brand names on FFHolic have subs doesn't mean they get traffic.
- Louis Gray
I think we should use FriendFeed to talk more about FriendFeed! #;+)
- Gregg Scott
if we use friendfeed to talk about friendfeed, we become as bad as the twitters. </sarcasm>
- Evan Travers
The first rule of Friendfeed is, you do not talk about Friendfeed.
- KyleHase
from twhirl
Louis: You're absolutely correct. No offense, but I wouldn't have known who you are without your involvement here. Now that I've seen your participation here, I've investigated who you are more thoroughly. This is a win-win situation for both of us. I learn more, you increase your subscribership, and IMO the entire social medial word is enriched. The more a person uses (posts, passively shares, comments, likes) I wrote a longer response as a comment which will be reprinted on my blog later this week.
- guruvan (Rob Nelson)
yeah, what guruvan said... Rob, it's getting weird agreeing with everything you say
- Chris Heath
I really really want a twitter robe! I might actually make one for myself.
- D. Eda Goze
Maybe Twitter is more of a 60's hippie Burning Man type of a cult that a robed one
- rob
Twitter isn't a cult - cult's generally die when their leader does and if Twitter sells (and it probably will either late '09 or '10) the founders will probably leave after a year or so, and Twitter will still be rocking ;)
- Nicholas James
There are those of us that use Twitter that don't fit all five definitions of a cult, as laid out in this article.
- Mike Shields
Hitting the nail on the head. Whilst "brands" want to have their logo emblazoned over every login box it just creates confusion and a feeling that OpenID is not ready for primetime. I guess in an ideal world one's browser would know which provider(s) the reader utilises and only show the likely options - that would be a big step forward IMO
- Barney Craggs