I am already spending way more time in Twitter and FF than on Facebook, and I suspect this trend will continue, especially if every time I log into Facebook I have to ignore these stupid requests... - Marc Dierens
Ben it is really hard to say, but Face Book is a walled garden! In the long run walls cave in and a community is destroyed! Here on FF we may disagree, fight, even raise hell, but we come to turns with each other and respect each other! It is all out in the open, for everyone to see! - Igor The Troll
Marc, i share the same pattern with you. Twitter, FF and Plurk are where i'm spending most of my time on, rather than Facebook. Many of my friends lost interests in facebook as well. but some of them still love to stay long time there, as Facebook offer limited storage for photos. - Jansen Lu
Facebook has become overpolluted with viral applications. It's lost the KISS principle. I see it fading, as will MySpace. I see social networks being like nightclubs - they have a shelf life. - Craig Thomler
it will eventually plateau, as MySpace has, perhaps within the next 6 months. What I don't know is whether the decline will be slow as with MySpace, or quick. - Duncan Riley
Facebook has reached a plateau, at least as far as its relevance is concerned. It will be around for a good long time but I doubt it will be anywhere near as vibrant as it was 9 months ago. - Steve Spalding
Wow, we all seem to agree with each other! I like the Night Club metaphor, it is really right on spot here! - Igor The Troll
It will be one of many social networking providers, who are working with a standard (social) networking service of the internet, which grow up from the data portability initiative. - Sebastian Küpers
within 5 years, desired, acquired, faded, upbraided, reorged, deformed, non-performing, storm warning, gone. - Alan Wilensky via twhirl
I definitely think it will continue to grow & be bigger & better than Facebook. It's the social network I use most often (that's not including aggregators, microblogs, etc). - ChaCha Fance
it depends, most likely it will devolve into a mess like MySpace and a more usable site will open up. - Darren Daz Cox
Facebook is old hat, tiresome crap trying to re-invent itself with new functionality which doesn't reach the user cuz of all the blinding spammy apps!! Prediction: FB will continue to grow (it IS mainstream now) and will loose luster like LinkedIn already has. - Susan Beebe
Facebook has acheived mass popularity....something that Twitter/Friendfeed etc only aspire to do. Annoying as it is Facebook will be modestly bigger in two years and be worth over $15 b unless, of course, the American economy crumbles entirely. - chantelle via twhirl
@Susan - LinkedIn lost its luster? Please explain. It just raised a billion and I have tons of people joining the network still. - Ben Parr
Ben: I have nearly 1,000 "connections" so obviously I know LinkedIn well; in fact, I am the founder of the FriendFeed Friends Group http://www.linkedin.com/e/gis/... so do respect the app. But did you notice that they have built a walled garden with zero integration with any other app? This is a stale socnet strategy, maybe just me but I think they need to open up their app, e.g. status updates would be so easy to update via twitter... hello?! - Susan Beebe
Ben, is there away to message all group members at one time? I am still lost on LinkedIn! - Igor The Troll
@Igor - One of LinkedIn's great weaknesses is its lack of features and search for Groups. I've heard from internal sources they're working on it, but they've got so much on their plate. But so far, no. I'd still like to message my 200,000 member Facebook group, but that still can't be done. - Ben Parr
I have concrete proof FB will fail: Former New Jersey Governor Jim McGreevey left the site after his posts on people's walls started showing up on gossip sites. If that's not a harbinger... - David Shankbone
side effect of asking lots of tough questions, you start to get some answers that make sense. - Nathan Eckenrode
As a fellow geek we better be sure we're right, because if we are wrong it's gonna be bad. - Blackopsmanners
Blackopsmanners: my idea of hell is being forced to sit next to Jesse Helms for eternity. Of course HIS idea of hell is probably sitting next to me. So, who is in hell? - Robert Scoble
Geeks are generally tech freaks and when you see item after item made by man changing the way your life is lived then it becomes pretty easy to accept that man invented god not the other way around. - Jeff Jones
Geeks are more educated and the more education a person has, the more likely they are to look at our world logically, and choose atheism. - Granteezy via fftogo
I think it has a lot to do with rarely humbling oneself enough to admit that they don't, "know it all" or "have all the answers". It's generally about humility, which geeks tend to have very little of. - Trevor Carpenter
I cannot disagree more Trevor. Atheists are the ones saying "we don't have all the answers". Deity based religions certainly claim to do so. - Jeff Jones
Trevor: Jeff is right. I used to be very religious. I found that most of the people who were religious were not humble at all and weren't able to look at the world without having any answers. Our minds are very strong pattern recognizers. It takes a lot of humility to turn off the pattern recognizer and just accept you don't have the answers. But, this is why I call myself an agnostic. I'm not certain there is not a God. Just like I'm not certain there is one, either. - Robert Scoble
To Jeff and Robert. I certainly can understand what you are saying. However, I separate out the religious from the genuine Christian. The majority of the "religious", including many who clam Christianity, are far from humble. They are generally far from God too. I would not say that those who are legitamately close to God claim to to know it all. In fact, they would say that God knows it all, and we can't know it all. My statement about geeks not being humble is more poking fun than anything else. - Trevor Carpenter
I'm a card-carrying member of a deity based religion as Jeff calls it. Christian is what I am and I certainly don't claim to have all the answers. In fact, I have very few. That's why I need/desire the deity. Right? Sadly, there is an unfortunate number of folks on both (many?) sides of this argument who give their own group a bad rap. I'm just trying to not be one of them. The way I see it, God is the one who created the patterns we're recognizing so I'll accept that He has the answers I need. - Lisa L. Seifert
Trevor: I was in a church of people all of whom considered themselves as "genuine Christian." Part of the problem is that religious people assume they really know what makes someone a "real believer." - Robert Scoble
Lisa: the thing is, anyone who professes to "believe" has already put something in their pattern recognizer that simply isn't there. Or, have you really seen God? But I'm going to beg out of this. I learned in the 1990s that these conversations never convince anyone and just piss people off. So, "Hide" is earned, have fun. - Robert Scoble
Robert. Sure, I know what you're saying. No belief system is worth anything if it in fact doesn't claim to be the "right" way. Without taking this too far...I'm coming from a traditionally reformed, Bible believing worldview. All that to say, Lisa is right. Even those on my team have harmed your view of true Christianity. - Trevor Carpenter
just think of a computer software program that has a certain set of rules....if then statements, etc....then think of DNA and explain...then who set the rules? randomly appeared? - Pokai
You're welcome, Trevor. (For what?) Robert: I'm sad that you're hiding the conversation. Nobody's pissed off. (Yet??) And I'm certainly not reading that anyone is trying to convince anyone of anything. I'm simply seeing different opinions here. And I like that. As far as seeing God: not in the way I'm assuming you mean. But I see the God-Effect everywhere, not to be confused with the Scoble Effect. ;-) Ocean, Wind, my own body-muscles, bones, blood, organs, blah, blah, blah. Standard argument. :-) - Lisa L. Seifert
I'm with Scoble on this one, hide earned! - Granteezy
thanks lisa, I think we should whip Scoble into the posted 60 foot monster wave (by Mitchell Tsai) and see what happens to his belief system....then he can tell us what happened to George Carlin :) - Pokai
Because few deities are open source. - Craig Thomler
I am of the view that historically and currently that Established Religions are a cause of a lot of Evil in the world and that has always been a major switch off for me about any Church. - David W
pokai, i know you ended with a set of rhetorical questions but what i'm inferring from your tone is that you're drawing a tangent that can't be supported. no one necessarily had to set rules for DNA for them to assemble randomly based upon thermodynamic stability. and then for them to interact with other molecules... - Kambiz Kamrani
because they don't like the fact that there is something they cannot explain? or maybe because they don't like the fact that there is something that is (could be) controlling them? - Timo Zimmermann via twhirl
@ Robert, I think it's unfair to paint whole groups of people as one things or another: muslims, Christians, Jews, Atheists, Agnostics, et. al which is probably what bothers me most about these discussions. Not the facts of what's right or wrong, but rather the debate normally centers around painting a wide brush across an over-generalized groups of people. see "why are geeks often atheist?" I know a lot of smart people who believe a lot of different things ... - David Adewumi
I think the questions of humility/uncertainty vs. "we know whats best" views of religion can correspond well to the tech world...there are entrepreneurs looking for what has been the missing, the algebraic X, the unknown that hasnt been built yet or thought of (think of major advances like RSS or SNs a la twitter or friend feed...and then there was the aol way of thinking where they thought they could comprehend entirely the social aspects of the web in a closed platform...geek doesnt always = athiest - joshuabacker
One reason the I am turned off by religion is that each one tends to believe that their version is the only version. Some even to the point of professing to kill others that do not believe the way they do. There is very little tolerance of other points of view. Most Christian religions profess tolerance of others and I'm sure their are some groups that do practice this, but I find significant hypocrisy with most religious institutions between what they preach and how the really act. - Jeff P. Henderson
ok kambiz, interesting, but what makes the same genetic material become a frog, dog or human? - Pokai
Lisa, I was simply thankful for your comments. They were spot on. - Trevor Carpenter
I really loved this part of the article:The absence of proof does not mean there is no proof at all; but it does give a strong reason to doubt if there is any. Geeks have conditioned themselves to think logically, just as the religious have been conditioned to replace logic with trust in what they are told. What can be extracted from this is that geeks are not atheists simply because they may know "more" but also because they choose to think differently (whether or not they think superiorly is a question for another debate). - Lisa L. Seifert
I agree david. I wonder why intelligence is their defense. - Pokai
pokai, Jeff nails it. but let me clarify one thing -- the same genetic material doesn't necessarily exist in a frog, dog, or human. a frog has a different genome (set of genes) from a dog and a human. these different genes arose through mutations during various biological processes like DNA replication, and gamete production. they are continually evolving by way of natural selection. the frog, dog, human, share a common vertebrate ancestor but they all have diverged from that point into separate species. - Kambiz Kamrani
Continued from previous post: I liked that part for the reminder to keep thinking. I don't ever want to be conditioned to think one thing only whether I'm wearing my Christian hat, my geek hat, my caretaker hat, etc. I don't think we can generalize either way. I agree with David - and with Jeff regarding hypocrisy. It's one reason I hesitate to enter into discussion of beliefs. I know I'm being lumped right now by some of you; but I'd rather try to state my own point of view than sit back and be lumped. - Lisa L. Seifert
I unhid this for a second just to see what direction it went in. I'm hiding again. Some things haven't changed in 10 years, I see. Sigh. See, I used to participate in every religious thread in Visual Basic Programmer's Journal's CompuServe forum (after moving them to that magazine's "OffRamp" which is where we moved stuff that went off topic). The conversations always degenerated just like this one has into calling the other side names. No one ever learns anything. So, Lisa, sorry. I'm getting older I guess - Robert Scoble
than you kamrani and jeff for your clarification, - Pokai
Bye, Robert... Does this mean you won't come to the parties I host at the Ritz once I move to HMB?? ;-) I'm sure I'll get the chance to discuss greater issues such as religion with you at some time when there will be no name-calling. :-) - Lisa L. Seifert
i think scoble just faked hiding, but he is still reading...funny how scoble made the first comment on this post... - Pokai
Oh, no. Do not doubt. Scoble is THE hider. :-) Eventually, he may look back, but he is the best of the hiders. I hide because he has inspired me to do so... Seriously. I always forget about it until he evangelizes it. Then I hide again. - Lisa L. Seifert
@Jeff "One reason the I am turned off by religion is that each one tends to believe that their version is the only version. Some even to the point of professing to kill others that do not believe the way they do." Now replace 'religion' with (culture, style of government, monetary system, nation, state, language, et. al) and you will see this is not an effective argument. See current war in Iraq/Afghanistan for an example. Is that really about religion? - David Adewumi
Up to this point, I can't find one person, on either side of the discussion calling anyone a name. Where are the name-callers? (excluding Lisa's, "Scoble is THE hider.") - Trevor Carpenter
wow, I step away for a night, and look what I miss! - Andrew Badera
FWIW, I was born, christened, raised Roman Catholic. I was even an altar boy, but that was mostly due to the boredom I experienced, sitting in the pews. I don't claim to have all the answers -- I lean more towards labeling myself an agnost than atheist these days -- but I know, quite for certain, that organized religions don't have it any more right than I do. - Andrew Badera
Nobel physics Stephen Hawking: No need the God model - Igor Poltavskiy
Creators of religions (or any influential belief system) are interesting (perhaps as much for their pathologies as anything else). Followers of belief systems created by others are not interesting, at least in that aspect of their lives that is organized around a script that they didn't create. They are sleep walkers. - Sean McBride
First, not all deity-based religions claim to be the right and only way. In fact, Judaism is based on the idea that it is right for Jews and probably not right for anyone else. It's partially because of this sense of exclusivity that probably fuels Antisemitism. Also, when a lot of people say 'religion', they usually mean just Christianity because it's all they know. It's unfair to other religions to be so blindly grouped. - Akiva Moskovitz
I was raised in a Christian household and definitely see HUGE problems with Religion and the "Church" at large. In fact, I am so bothered, I stopped going to church as a result and am routinely offended by the all non-sense/crap espoused by religious groups and church organizations. I believe God exists. I have no unbelief in this regard as I have personally experienced some wonderful spiritual events (2 miracles in fact - 1 documented by dental x-rays). I see tons of fallacies with religion - very sad. - Susan Beebe
Akiva - ethnic nationalist ideologies -- particularly messianic ethnic nationalist ideologies -- are by definition exclusionary, polarizing and a trigger of violent conflict with ethnic outsiders. Universalist religions like Christianity, Islam and Buddhism are largely attempts to overcome the problems and limitations of ethnic nationalism. - Sean McBride
On my good days I'm an agnostic, my bad days an atheist. On the whole all religions try to describe the same thing, make sense of our world and how we should conduct ourselves. I remember being at my Grandmother's funeral (Catholic) and thinking that the words (return to Christ etc) were so comforting ... and it was then that I thought they were wrong. Those words are designed to be comforting and that was by human design IMO. Seek god in your own way and live accordingly - see Stranger in a Strange Land. - AJ Kohn
Where do you get those statistics that geeks are typically athiest? Faith takes courage and conviction. I am a Christian as are many of the riders I know. - Dave Ploch
Sean, last I checked, 'universalism' isn't achieved by oppression, forced conversions, or the outright murdering of people of differing beliefs. Furthermore, Buddhism shouldn't be grouped with Islam and Christianity because Buddhism isn't a proselytizing religion. In fact, I would say that Buddhism and Judaism are more universalist than Christianity and Islam for this very reason. They say, 'You do your thing and we'll do ours.' Not, 'You do our thing or we're coming after you.' - Akiva Moskovitz
Faith mentality: don't question me, don't challenge me, believe and do what I say. Hacker mentality: question everything, challenge everything. Guess which mindset produces the more interesting creative work. - Sean McBride
Akiva: Judaism (especially in its Zionist mode) is an ethnic nationalist ideology or cult organized around the interests of a particular ethnic group. Ethnic nationalism is the direct antithesis of universalism. Buddhism bears little meaningful resemblance to Judaism or religious Zionism. Christianity and Islam have committed many crimes over the ages, that is true. Aggressive fanaticism and intolerance seem to be central features of nearly all monotheistic/Abrahamic cults. - Sean McBride
I don't want to seem ignorant or prejudiced, but is Judaism not highly non-universalist? Laws against marrying non-Jews etc. - Alexander Carlill
Alexander, the best way I can put it is how a Rabbi once put it to me: 'It's better to be a righteous non-Jew than to be a non-righteous Jew.' In other words, Judaism prefers people to follow a different religion that is better suited to them rather than be forced to become Jewish. To me, that's more universal. Live and let live. - Akiva Moskovitz
Sean, and there it is. I'm ringing the bell. - Akiva Moskovitz
Alexander: Judaism is intensely ethnocentric at the core, but various currents in the Jewish tradition have tried to move in a more universalist direction -- Reform Judaism, Reconstructionist Judaism, secular Jewish movements (how about Einstein?), etc. Notice how much of the Old Testament revolves around wars between "Israel" and other ethnic/nationalist groups ("the nations") -- it's the dominant motif of much of the Bible. - Sean McBride
Akiva: I see. I'm going to stick with atheism for the foreseeable future, but I think I'm relatively righteous... Thanks for the info. - Alexander Carlill
Alexander, oops, yep. I should've written 'a different religion, agnosticism, or atheism.' I did not in any way mean to imply that only religious people can be righteous. The two, sadly, are sometimes mutually exclusive which is something Judaism seeks to avoid. - Akiva Moskovitz
Akiva -- to which branch of Judaism are you referring? Some factions are incredibly intolerant; others are the soul of tolerance. Some of Israel's chief rabbis have made public statements that are extremely intolerant towards various ethnic and religious groups (including towards other Jewish religious factions). One finds the same problems in the Christian and Muslims worlds -- fundamentalist voices of intolerance often drown out more reasonable voices. See, for instance, John Hagee on Roman Catholicism. - Sean McBride
Sean, how about not hijacking this post to yet again aggressively espouse your opinions on Judaism (and Israel)? - Akiva Moskovitz
Akiva -- has the discussion suddenly become too sensitive for you in some way? You sound like you'd like to censor it. Let me ask again: which branch of Judaism are you referring to here? Orthodox? Conservative? Reform? Reconstructionist? Seems like a perfectly reasonable question. Also, a great deal of Christian fundamentalism in America revolves around Israel, does it not? Bush reportedly started a disastrous war in Iraq largely because of his religious beliefs. Iran may be next. - Sean McBride
Sean, it's very clear that you have a bone to pick and you can chase me around FriendFeed until your Keds fall apart but I am not going to feed your hunger. Thus, reasonable or not, I am not answering your questions. You seem only to be interested in answers that can fuel your soapbox, anyway. If this makes you feel superior or victorious, that's fine. That's a delusion I will lose no sleep over. - Akiva Moskovitz
Akiva -- you haven't replied in a rational way to a single particular point I've raised here -- your responses have been emotional. And this is very typical behavior for religionists of all kinds -- they have difficulty handling a rational discussion about non-rational beliefs. Judaism is a very complex subject -- the tradition includes numerous competing and contradictory factions. Overgeneralizing about Judaism, Christianity and Islam is an intellectual error, in my opinion. - Sean McBride
Actually, my responses have been very rational. I'm just addressing your motives and not your points. You just can't seem to understand the fact that you are not entitled to someone's answers just because you ask them questions. - Akiva Moskovitz
Akiva -- you're addressing motives, and not the substantive points being addressed in this thread? That is not how reasonable people conduct rational discussions and debates. If you can't handle logical, factual and civil challenges to your beliefs, probably public discussion forums aren't a favorable medium for you. :) For others here, I will simply reiterate: there are several strains of Judaism, some extremely intolerant, some very tolerant. This is a fact known to any serious student of world religions. - Sean McBride
Ah, more smug responses with implied insults. Gotta love the Internet. - Akiva Moskovitz
Akiva -- a simple question: is Judaism a monolithic tradition (as you have implied), or is it a diverse and self-contradictory tradition? Do the ultra-Orthodox agree with Reform Jews? Do the ultra-Orthodox even agree with one another? (They do not.) No wonder geeks and hackers for the most part try to steer clear of religious squabbling and wars! -- it tends to be a real energy-waster. - Sean McBride
Akiva: I wasn't accusing you of implying anything, merely commenting on my own situation. So no need to apologise. - Alexander Carlill
There is no more sacred honor and patriotism that is not sold or auctioned to the hoghest bidder. Take salary out of legislators, eliminate federal pension and health plan. - Alan Wilensky via Alert Thingy
Well they would surely pass what ever legislation they had pending so they could get back to their day jobs. Excellent comment Alan! - Earl E Morningwood
"oops, there I go again! Forget that I wrote that - selling mobile apps and systems to the service industry is a stupid idea, obviously. You can delete that comment." - Alan Wilensky
"I believe that there are sustainable, subscription-based mobile data businesses that can provide a rate of return greater than any portfolio based investment. These opportunities are all located in the professional services market for mobile work flow and work order management, and have been horribly under served by the big ERP companies, established mobile applications vendors, and the VC biz.
There are millions of independent, service based businesses that need better mobile apps, and they are willing to pay their 25-50 / mo. in perpetuity to get these services. What a portfolio! For a relatively small investment in a few J2ME apps backed by a hosted cloud type back-end, you can be sitting pretty with 30k subscribers.
Yet, this has been the hardest sell, to potential investors, that I have ever faced." - Alan Wilensky
"You, sir are the archetype of the former gentleman farmers who tended their fair properties in New England, and then served a few months as legislators in the nation's capital. Then, at the end of the legislative session, these fine men, taking nothing from the process but their sense of satisfaction in serving the public good, would return to tend their fields and lavish loving attention on their indentured. Some had offspring with the aforementioned, I surmise.
Instead of a pastoral, agrarian patriot, Fred Wilson, you sow and reap great ideas and capital; lead us, oh brave stalwart, lead us all armed with hoe, rake, and weed-whacker, and we Yankees all from New England, a militia of VC hopefuls, will march down RT 95 to the nation's capital and create a new fund of trust stored up for our fellow citizens. The true equity in our cause being a new era of honest political service, the exit being an end to the bought and paid for politician." - Alan Wilensky
"What has the marked the essential stench of today's brand of politics? I would say that it has been the gradual creation of a professional political class, i.e., the family business, which includes a revolving door of legislators and their staffs instantly transiting into high level lobbying and fed contractor positions. The ability to wield influence has become a goal unto itself, thereby creating an attitude of expediency to get elected, no matter what the rhetoric must sound like. And also, to stay in office, to align all one's moves to preserve one's office, so that any courageous act to truly serve The People, at one's potential political disadvantage, is no longer palatable to today's politicians. Self interest has permeated the society, starting with the politicians of this privileged professional class. It is obscene that one must raise millions to take a Senate seat, 100s of millions to run a competitive presidential campaign. The two current candidates have so many..." - Alan Wilensky
The conversational-centric-ness is making Friendfeed a pretty noisy place. I'm still trying to get use to the noise. On Twitter, it's like streams of silent messages; pretty much 'In space, no one can hear you scream'. On Friendfeed, it's like being in a bar on a Saturday night! - Yung-Hui Lim
I'll continue to use both - FF is quite nice for other reasons, and when Twitter goes down, it's still up. - Dossy Shiobara
Twitter is the Cliff Notes of Friendfeed. Quick and easy & you get the gist. - Stephen Terlizzi
For me, it's like friends with benefits and evaporates when my true love returns. - Francine Hardaway
FF is like digg with a twist. And you know who the people commenting on your posts. Well. most of the time. Would be nice to get a mobile widget of FF like Tinytwitter. Maybe there's one that I don't know about. - Carolyn
Twitter is like a topping on FriendFeed's pizza. Everybody loves pizza. Not everybody agrees on toppings. - Louis Gray
Yeah, FF is awfully noisy. I do like it better than twitter in some ways. But it needs a character limit for messages like Twitter. - Jason Huebel
FF is the Killer! It centralizes discussions and lets things bubble up to the surface! Everything is Transparent! - Igor The Troll
Twitter is my Best Friend... Friend Feed is my Book Club... there's more 'deep conversation' over here - but I don't always want every conversation to either be non-existent or terribly deep. Sometimes I just want to twitter like a little bird. - Lucretia Pruitt
they're becoming complementary tools for me - .LAG
I'm starting to get annoyed by the repetition of things here, i.e., if Louis Gray shares an item on Google Reader, then over the course of the day 10 or 15 other people share the same item (or Digg, Stumble, etc.). The comments fragment, and the number of items to browse through multiply. - Kirk Kittell
However, I like both Twitter and FriendFeed. They're different tools for me, and generally reach different subsets of people. - Kirk Kittell
I like FF - I love Twitter - FF needs to be organized differently, I think - it doesn't have the right logical setup for me - Susanne "Renee" Bullo
I'm a newbie on FF. I have twhirl configured to show FF side by side with Twitter. I like the conversational aspect of FF, the ticker-tape-like stream of thought of Twitter. - Mark Dixon via twhirl
I'm sure people will complain about twitter when it fails to work, but when they manage to kick themselves and make it work, people will flock back. Twitter can't be beat imo for mobile interaction, or to track things of interest, but both of these are down, so it has no value for me. As I said on my blog I quit twitter so if it works I'm happy but if it doesn't pan out I'm not disappointed - BCK
Dave looks like Loren still has a Love affair with you! What did you do to the guy? - Igor The Troll
Actually, who cares. Everything is a summer love. Some summers happen to be longer than others. So, excuse me but there's really nothing intellectual to discuss here as in which is better. Don't like it, don't use it. Simple. - Carolyn
"57 million Americans who own a car and have direct access to public transportation". This number sounds exaggerated. My guess is the number of Americans who can go from home to work via public transportation currently (in reasonable amount of time) is a lot lower. However, increased demand for public transportation due to high gas prices may push governments to invest more in public transportation (hopefully) - berkay
People underestimate the extent to which the american social and physical landscape has been influenced by the advent of the automobile and the availability of cheap gas. Adapting to the future realities of expensive gas is going to be very painful. Think about the formation of suburbs and the 40 mile commute. - Darryl Siry
It will interesting to see if corporations lax their telecommuting policies to allow employees to work from home or from local business centers. We may see a growing trend of a "connected" workforce that uses social media and open source applications to get work done. I don't have data to share, just my thoughts on the subject. - Larry Kless
Why is the oil industry the only one where they are artificially allowed to fix the price. Why no competition? - Chris Nixon
Oil is going up until locally produced alternative fuels become economically viable to produce and supply on a large scale. That couldn't happen at $2 gallon but at $7 - $10 a gallon it can. - Paul Short
u s/join the 209Club. Oil is going to hit the $200 mark soon !! - Peter Dawson
@Chris Nixon - There is competition, there are different oil companies, etc. But: There is too much demand yet limited supply. That's the basic principle of a market economy. - sebmos
@Paul Short - Locally produced oil isn't a real alternative. US oil companies won't sell locally produced oil cheaper - why should they? They ask for the price they can get, they don't care about the people. That's market economy. I live in Europe, we have even higher gas prices than the US, partly because we have way higher taxes on gas. You know what? Gas prices aren't a topic here. We buy less gas-guzzling cars for decades already. - sebmos
That's strange. I thought OPEC met every now and then to agree to increase/decrease oil production specifically in order to regulate the price. - Andy C
sebmos: what? Gas prices are very much a topic in Europe, too (at least in Germany they are). IMHO oil (and energy in general) is still too cheap. With today's prices, people are beginning to change their behavior. If the price doubled or tripled again, we would see radical change real fast. - Ole Begemann
@Andy C - No, that's what the western countries expect from them. The OPEC-countries want to control the oil price, but they have no interest in lowering it. They want to have it as high as possible (again: like any other company) without damaging their own future prospects. If they charged $500 per barrel, the world economy would collapse and they wouldn't sell anything anymore. So they can't increase the price indefinitely. - sebmos
@sebmos I get that, that explains why the price is high, but it doesn't explain why the oil companies can get together to set their price together. In any other indistry, that's called price fixing and is illegal...not for the oil companies though. - Chris Nixon
A few years ago, it was common sense that with the oil price rising above of $40/barrel, the world economy would collapse. (I remember the times when economical analysts warned of a price of more than $40.) Now they found out that they can increase the price, at the same time they found additional markets in China, India and other countries. Additionally, they didn't find meaningful new oil reserves. - sebmos
Oil prices are being set by institutional investors hedging against stock & real estate markets, devaluation, and inflation. It's not supply and demand any more than stock prices are supply and demand. Don't you wish you invested in USO in march? Check out this chart: http://friendfeed.com/e/a2dc54... - Chris White
@Chris Nixon - It's not the oil companies that set the price for oil, it's the oil producing countries. (Through OPEC, for example.) You can't control them, because they don't fall under US jurisdiction, and they would simply boycott the country. The OPEC would be illegal by western law, but nobody can do anything about it. It's doubtful though that even without the OPEC, prices would be much lower. They *can* demand these prices, and they don't have to compete because of the big demand. - sebmos
The only way to bring the prices down is to allow the prices to go up. A higher price is the only thing that will bring down consumption and in parallel fuel the development of alternate energy sources. More oil (Alaska) is not a solution, it is procrastination. So is Saudi's promise of 200k more Barrels. - Parth Awasthi
@sebmos Ahh I see. I get it now. I've spent a decade wondering that and it gets sorted out in half an hour on FriendFeed. - Chris Nixon
This is why oil prices are going crazy: http://www.mcadforums.com/foru... Well, in addition to the devaluation of the dollar caused by the Fed continuing to keep interest rates at ridiculous levels. - Chris White
From the article I posted: "According to the CFTC and spot market participants, commodities futures prices are the
benchmark for the prices of actual physical commodities, so when Index Speculators
drive futures prices higher, the effects are felt immediately in spot prices and the real
economy.So there is a direct link between commodities futures prices and the prices
your constituents are paying for essential goods." - Chris White
Oil. It's got to crash. I mean, come on! And when it does, a lot of funds etc, are going to be in a spot of bother. - john conroy
John, yeah, and when it happens, it will be all the people who jumped in late feeling the pain, because the guys who started it will already be shorting. - Chris White
Chris, if Interest rates are dropped again, there other side of inflation will raise.. - Peter Dawson
Peter, I want interest rates to go up. This is the only way to fix the economy long term. If we don't strengthen the dollar, we could be in a world of hurt for a long time. Imagine if OPEC switched to euros and China pulled out of US treasuries. Nightmare. - Chris White
@Chris White - You're right, the weak dollar doesn't help either. And you're right, future prices for oil affect the current price - but that's not really unexpected. If the price is known to rise within a week, speculators could buy a lot of oil now and sell it a week later. Because they do (or try) that, the oil price rises (because demand increases). That's not illegal, only immoral, but not even that a lot. It's simply part of the price. - sebmos
the dry futures contract is killing us - Alan Wilensky
The problem is, that there are so many factors. You can't fix the oil price without increasing the value of the dollar, bombing Chinese and Indian car factories, replacing SUVs with European or Asian cars, destroying the OPEC and nationalizing the oil companies. The US suffers from a perfect storm. Everything goes wrong that can go wrong. (And no, drilling in Alaska is no short-term solution and too little as a long-term solution.) - sebmos
This is going to crash, I can just feel it. Just like dotcom, just like real estate. It's not just oil, it's all commodities. - Chris White
Fred -- this is a great thread. You should blog this as an example of what FriendFeed is all about. - john conroy
For a crash, there needs to be a bubble. There is no bubble - just high demand and low supply. - sebmos
Well put, sebmos. The term "crash" doesn't quite apply here. "Big change," maybe. - Brent Newhall
Chris White those are interesting comments, because they imply the impact of positions taken in the market. Although I know only a little, Credit Default Swaps seems to have fed much of the crash in the real estate market. I also think it is interesting that the Oil prices have surged in the last year of the Bush administration. His friends must be happy. - terra210
@terra, yes especially the CDS vanilla flavour played by the far east markets have caused an impact to the to the US space.. actually I belive the US players are greedy for short term gains.. and played right into their hands.. time to think where does $$$ come from and where do they go. GDP is on the raise in Indian /China and this means more expenses for the EU /US consumer space.. - Peter Dawson
john, yes but are we ready for a black swan event in the financial sector ? - Peter Dawson
LIke I said earlier, I understand the arguments for increased demand by emerging markets, and I don't buy that it is causing the massive increase in commodities we are seeing in recent months. Just a difference of opinion I guess, and we will see who is right eventually. - Chris White
your twitter post shows up on FriendFeed anyway (where I am replying to it) so make your own conclusion - Brian Sullivan
Yeah, if your Twitter account feeds here, don't post here. Feed your thoughts in as far upstream as possible. Like I said on Twitter (half joking), post to your blog/tumblr and let everything else flow from that. - Ken Sheppardson
I post different things to different places, because different people follow me on each - Francine Hardaway
"I am astounded that each day, as I read the 90 or so feeds that cover the industry, that I am less and less piqued or astounded by what is offered as Web20 news. However, I am very interested in new technology for creating and delivering rich internet applications. These new companies are making the last mile to functionality more accessible for mid-lever business analysts and SME programmers.
I dont have a list here, but you know who I mean. Bungee, Iceberg, Gemstone, Heroku, it's a mix. Something big is going to happen in creating and delivering applications that will, someday, and for a certain class of Web accessible apps, make it easier to get "there"." - Alan Wilensky
congrats too. I love it that you refer to her as Gotham Gal. I have no idea why, but I like it. It has a nice edge to it; gives her edge too. Nice to see. - terra210
Wow-big congrats! Not easy. Happy next 21 years! - Mark Forman
@terra210 i copied that from jim cramer who called his former wife karen "the trading goddess" the truth is wives get the short shrift. everyone has a better half. so i gave mine a name, and she is my superhero, the gotham gal. - Fred Wilson
I use my laptop as my alarm. (Aurora FTW) - Erica Baker
I've been using my blackberry alarm as a backup since my regular alarm clock's battery backup started acting up. The BB alarm even works now that I have the BB set to turn itself off between 11pm and 6am. - Harvey Simmons
But how do you turn off the buzzer on email and only leave the alarm on? - leigh himel
Not a blackberry but been using my WM6 phone as alarm clock for same reason, battery failed in regular alarm, easier to figure out than hotel alarm clocks, + works Mon-Fri and do not need to set it every night. - Nick Cowie via twhirl
"I have such a model where the mobile (business) subscribers have agreed to pay 20-30 / mo. for the service. But no one will fund it. It's too practical and has a blue collar constituency." - Alan Wilensky
"Why do some mega sites like Ars load so quickly and some seem to stall - is it the widgets, the flash, the JavaScript? It seems that the services that have integrated the native installation of many types of blog bling (like Typepad), have no problem rendering these pages quickly, whereas some self-hosted MT and WP blogs take forever to load when so adorned.
Even TechCrunch, which I used to take note of as a fast loading site, is now so bogged down with crap. Part of this is always the client processing capacity, but most of my machines are fairly new." - Alan Wilensky
"Anyone that quotes or writes the word 'vacuity' is alright by me. I catch some TV shows like, "are you smarter than a 5th grader'. and these kids that mostly compete against 25 year old models and celebs are really smart." - Alan Wilensky
I wouldn't use virtualization in this context for anything other than prototyping configurations. - Kevin D. White
if the quantity is big (1000+), directly talk to Chinese manufactures for nice customizations and cool prices. depending on your grid's software infrastructure, should it can tolerate consequent and frequent whole node outages, go with the cheapest equipment but buy plenty. if your sw infra won't be happy with too many nodes failing constantly, invest on reliable storage options for the grid and quality PSUs for nodes. - Berk D. Demir
