"Not trying to feed panic here, but scenarios that just a year or two ago I would have given 1000-to-1 odds now feel considerably more likely. I hope each of you have at least considered a personal plan for facing a financial system seizure. This is really a very precarious and historic moment." - Anthony Citrano

I'll be honest and no, I don't have a plan in place, but then my advisors have suggested not to panic and everything is just fine, don't worry. That advice doesn't exactly inspire confidence :-(. Not sure what I should/could do faced with that situation. - Sally Church

@Sally: I think they are right that panic will not help. But they are absolutely WRONG that everything is just fine. I don't mean to shriek and say the sky is falling, but scenarios that were unthinkable (or unspeakable) just a year ago are now scenarios worth considering. Many families who live in flood zones have flood plans. We have entered an economic flood zone. Thus, it might be time to give some "just in case" thought to "what would I do if..." - Anthony Citrano

Why aren't these journalists / bloggers analyzing the candidates' economic plans, instead of spreading more light to the current 'panic'? Irresponsible. - Mona Nomura

Fear itself is what will bring real disaster upon the heads of the unwary. Every person who looks at the news, the papers, the internet with a fearful eye will find plenty to fuel their growing unease. As this pressure builds up decision-making becomes clouded and the more people take the attitude that they must protect themselves above all things the worse things will be both for them and society as a whole. Yes, being prudent is good. Shoring up your position to the detriment of others is not..... - WorldofHiglet

...Although the state of the global economy looks bad, the longer term view is unclear at this stage. One thing that is certain, though - fear-mongering will become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Those of us who lived through the 80's will feel a sense of familiarity about this situation and it was the greed of the few that brought the economy down then. Panic gets us on the road to nowhere fast. - WorldofHiglet

@Mona: I assume that is directed at me, since I wrote this one. Plenty of time has been given (by myself and others) to the economic plans of the candidates, which are long term solutions. On the contrary, I think it's irresponsible that almost no time is being given to short-to-mid-term questions for individuals, such as: do you have a plan for a financial system hiccup or seizure?... - Anthony Citrano

... it's very possible we could face things like "bank holidays", credit line closures, transaction clearing problems, even a global market halt. Maybe a few days, but maybe weeks or even longer. Over years past, when some were screaming about the derivative and mortgage crisis, no one was listening. Now people are surprised the house of cards is falling. I don't want people to say they weren't warned about these very real - and grave - possibilities. - Anthony Citrano

It's not just to you, Anthony, but to media in general. Generating alarm is one thing, but causing fear and panic is another. Or am I misunderstanding the fundamentals of journalism where instilling fear causes more good than harm? I know you have been aware long before the actual 'collapse' per se, and I guess it's better than saying: "I TOLD YOU SO." haha. As for the political portion, I'm surprised there is still no word, even a gist of a plan, aside from the usual tax benefit / allocation rhetoric. - Mona Nomura

And @Mona: to be granular for a moment: the economic plans of the candidates are important to consider. But if you can't buy milk at the grocery store or fill your car with gas, or there is social unrest in your area, is your first instinct to stand around and debate the nuances of our trade deficit or tax structure? They're different problems with different time horizons. - Anthony Citrano

@Mona: legit. Which is why I am not encouraging panic, but planning; and why I drew the flood analogy. Scenarios once seen as 'fringe' have become very real possibilities. Certain scenarios that I would have placed at <.01% possibility a few years ago I place well into the double-digits today. It's not crazy to plan for natural disasters or the like, and for most people those odds are much more remote than these. - Anthony Citrano

BTW, The Economist conducted a survey among economists about Obama vs. McCain. About 80% preferred Obama. - Mike Reynolds

To draw one quick parallel: McCain's original defense for saying "the fundamentals of the economy are strong" is that while he knew they weren't, he didn't want people to panic. I say: responsible leadership doesn't encourage panic; but it should encourage honesty and help people consider what they might do for their own / their family's well-being... - Anthony Citrano

..thus, when a ship hits an iceberg and water starts roaring in, the highest calling is not to stand around and say how awesome the ship is and debate how future ships ought to be constructed. [Sorry I was so long winded here...] - Anthony Citrano

Anthony: Even if you comprehend the differences, teh more important question is: "Does the American population?" It's most likely coincidence, but it's odd how during election years, there's always a national 'crisis'. I sure as hell don't want a candidate chosen based on emotions rather than rationale. That's why I think it's important for more journalists to concentrate on the "Now what?" than: "This is where we're headed people, are you prepared?" - which in essence, mean the same things worded different - Mona Nomura

@Mona agreed, but there's layers to "now what?" There's "now what" next week; "now what" 2009; "now what" for the future of the nation. All are important conversations, but are not mutually exclusive and do not obviate a personal shit-hits-the-fan plan. To have a short-term personal plan for a true crisis has nothing to do with choosing a candidate or discussing long term economic policy. This is personal contingency planning; more "what if?" than "now what?". - Anthony Citrano

@Mona: also, you point out something important: "I'm surprised there is still no word, even a gist of a plan, aside from the usual tax benefit / allocation rhetoric" - that's because this problem is MUCH too large for the government to solve; another reason to consider what I've said here. - Anthony Citrano

So shouldn't it be the responsibility of someone like, who is aware, to educate those who are looking for immediate solutions to look beyond that, in lieu of providing short term answers? What is that going to solve? - Mona Nomura

@Mona I guess we see the "shortage" differently. I see no shortage of discussion about long-term solutions. Conversely, I've heard almost no discussion about short-term solutions to the immediate potentialities I've mentioned. I guess they're just still too unspeakable (or unsolvable.) Every time I fly, I have to listen to a flight attendant talk about "water landings" - something that's never happened in the history of the world - but this is somehow crazy? - Anthony Citrano

Education, knowledge, awareness = prevention. May not be the exact answer people are looking for, but I sure as hell don't want this type of crisis to be repeated. - Mona Nomura

Good thing I'm not a college senior looking for a job. Oh wait. I am. - Jamelle

even college-senior job-hunting is longer term than what we're talking about here. - Anthony Citrano

Exactly. So it's about tackling the problem from the root. Education and awareness - or lack thereof. - Mona Nomura

i think there are two different conversations going on here. Anthony is asking, what are you doing RIGHT NOW for you and your family? What he's not doing is giving advice on what TO do. Just went through a 3 week gas shortage here--as in YOU COULDN'T FIND IT. People were getting in accidents when they'd see a tanker pull up to a station... - jeneane sessum

I have no doubt that it's wise advice to have a plan in place to deal with a "financial system seizure," but I personally haven't got the slightest notion of what such a plan might consist of. In most of the U.S., if you can't buy food or fuel, you're pretty much hosed, it seems to me, and I can't imagine any amount of advance planning would mitigate that appreciably. - Nathan Rein

If that were food? Money in your bank account? People this isn't an "if" it's a "when." Panic if you want, or take a xanax and start thinking. I was asking for time- and location-based apps during the gas-out here. "GasHereGasGone" dot-com, because shortages are such a fast changing situation. One minute you have, the next minute they're out. - jeneane sessum

What I learned from that mini-experience: CELLFUCKINGPHONE. pay your cell phone / communication bill first, assuming the infrastructure holds. communication with others across geographies is invaluable. - jeneane sessum

Know what else happened during the gas shortage? merchants stopped taking credit/debit cards. Cash only. $20 limit. What's that say to you? keep cash on hand, for what it's worth, as long as it's worth it. - jeneane sessum

Here's what i'm doing. Hoping i can keep a job. Most people with a job and no need to move will feel little from this except the inflation. If unemployment goes to 10%+ start expecting to lose your job and hopefully you have enough savings to sustain yourself for a few years. I have no advice for all the others affected by the douche-bags that caused this mess. Maybe becoming homeless, migrate to DC and piss on congressmen every chance you get? - ·[▪_▪]·

Interesting. My own financial hardships of the last 3 years have, as I see now, prepared me for this. What Anthony is suggesting, and what I have lived through and continue to, is this; how ready are you to go 1 week, 2 weeks, 3 weeks without using your ATM and not having a credit card? If you were to take $300 today. Would you be able to continue your current lifestyle until Nov 1st? Have you ever been 10 days away from payday with no savings or credit card and been able to get by with what cash you had? - Adam Turetzky

I haven't had a credit card in 3 years. But @d[▪_▪]b ♫, when credit dries up of the magnitude we're facing, having a job won't mean a thing, because payroll won't roll. I think it will be better to be a solo something-or-other with a couple of years experience working without a net. Yeah. Like that. - jeneane sessum

Thanks, Jeneane and Adam, for getting to what I am trying to say here. People in this thread keep talking about longer term things - which are important but not what I'm talking about; I'm talking about short-term seizure scenarios. WTF are you going to do in the event your ATM card stops working, your bank is encumbered, flow of commercial goods is interrupted, public service personnel are limited or furloughed, etc. These can no longer be dismissed as far-fetched, fringe scenarios. - Anthony Citrano

in other words, if you or someone in your family needs ongoing medication or medical treatment, you're in trouble. - Nathan Rein

Anthony: I am not being flippant. Have you seen It's a wonderful Life? Why did the run on the bank happen? Because people panicked. Yes, there is a big mess here and yes having some cash around and thinking about how things might work if there was no gas/food etc are important things BUT if we all start taking our cash out of the banks what will happen? If we all start stocking up (and believe me, some would be stock-piling it up) then what would the result be? Level heads are what is needed.... - WorldofHiglet

I think you are right to discuss this and I do not think you are scare-mongering but the tinges of fear are there. Fear is what we need to get away from, because it achieves nothing positive. Getting the conversation going is good, practical advice is better. - WorldofHiglet

@WoH I hear what you're saying re: practical advice but frankly I felt that my approach of bringing the subject up rather lightly-and-politely without offering practical specifics seemed likely to engender a lot less fear than offering practical advice, which can start to sound frightening pretty quickly. - Anthony Citrano

@WoH: then let's be gritty-frank for a moment. The global banking system is facing potential cataclysm. Almost no regular American takes the threat seriously or realizes its possible implications. So, what's scarier: if I gently suggest to readers that they consider a "personal contingency plan" for economic seizures? Or if I'm asking them how much water, silver, and ammunition they have in the house? You can bet I'd be taking a lot of shit had I taken the latter approach. - Anthony Citrano

Anthony: that is why I said that getting the conversation going is good. I am not saying you are wrong about engaging anyone in a conversation about what might or might not happen. The important thing is that no-one knows how bad it may not be. Not you, me or any of the officials who advised on the Bail-out. And in itself that can be scary. - WorldofHiglet

But hoping for the best while preparing for the worst seems to be a reasonable way forward. In the end it comes down to this. What will happen if the global banking system collapses? We don't know but I am pretty sure that every government has a contingency plan that puts martial law in place before that happens. In which case worrying about your retirement fund is a waste of time. - WorldofHiglet

An approach to this whole situation is to look at it from a different perspective. What if we couldn't buy future financial peace of mind with our money? In reality, we can't now but we think we can. What if we had to go back to looking at living through the next season, the next 2 years? Would this be a total disaster or would it be the start of something better? - WorldofHiglet

Would cash be even worth anything in a situation like this though? Most likely, stocking up on staples like water and canned food seems like the best move for a worst case scenario. - Tsega Dinka

@WoH, agree, except you are giving the governments too much credit. They have little to no plan for - nor ability to handle - such massive contingencies. There just aren't the resources. It would be to each their own.. I also liked your point about such possibilities maybe being the start of something better - but that'd be on a much longer timescale. - Anthony Citrano

@Tsenga: the value of cash would depend on the nature of the breakdown. In a bank run/market closure situation (more likely, and would probably unfold quickly) assuming Treasury acts somewhat rationally, cash probably would be king for at least a while. In a hyperinflation scenario (much less likely, and also would develop much more slowly), it probably would not. - Anthony Citrano