Wow. That elephant's hung like a horse.
- John Craft
THAT is why you always march the male ahead of the female elephants. Lesson learned I guess... I'd rather not see the shot 5 seconds later.
- Rafael Robayna
"Valleywag picked up a FriendFeed discussion between a few of us yesterday regarding the bailout bill within which Scoble blames 'people like [me]' for the coming 'breadlines'. It rings a little hollow considering where I’ve been on all this and where he’s been (i.e. nowhere), but it brings a much more important issue to the fore..."
- Anthony Citrano
From the article: "So, all of you: call your legions to arms. Tell them a national emergency requires that they spend an hour a day seriously evaluating the American way of life, thinking critically about where we stand as a nation, how we got here, and how they might help in the rebuilding. This is not politics; this is hardcore societal bodywork."
- Ontario Emperor
I've been talking to people at Fast Company and Inc here in NYC today. There are two problems. 1. The very real credit crunch. The Congress can get us out of that one, maybe. 2. Our fear. We're now all hoarding and preparing for the worst. I know I'm not spending money on projects that I was planning on doing (like I need to fix a shower). That too will cause harm to our economy and is something we can do something about, but, tell me how to get me over my fears and my hoarding impulse?
- Robert Scoble
Thanks Anthony, very well said. Glad this came around again.
- jcunwired
@Robert: Glad to see you're on a more even keel today. Credit will tighten but not stop. Things will get worse before they get better. I'd have to refer you to a therapist for the fear issue. I have faith that we're strong enough to get through it. The Bay Area survived the web 1.0 dot com crash. It wasn't easy (I was out of work for 11 months and had to go back to my old career for half pay) but ... we make due, we soldier on, we rebuild. Corny, I know. [edit] And a dose of lolcats ;)
- AJ Kohn
AJ: oh, we'll get through it. We made it through the depression and the civil war (where we killed six million of each other). We'll make it through whatever comes next. I might have to bring my family over and sleep on your couch, though. Hope you won't mind. :-)
- Robert Scoble
That's a small part of the current problem, Robert, for sure. But my goal with this piece is to move beyond this singular symptom (the financial crisis) and address the root of the disease.
- Anthony Citrano
First Twitter, then the economy. Damn you, Robert. ;-)
- Chris Baskind
The root of the problem is that we are human.
- Alex Scoble
This is why I think we need to create a "couch for Scoble" room ;)
- Les Zaldor
@Robert: Sure, come by! Not that I have much in my apartment and the 12 year old IKEA couch isn't too comfy.
- AJ Kohn
@Anthony: Well written BTW. I feel like this is an opportunity to change the way Americans have been living - to stop living beyond our means and start living sensibly. And perhaps this creates an atmosphere where we speak up - loudly and boldly - when we see something going off the tracks instead of sitting back.
- AJ Kohn
@AJ - thank you. That is exactly what I am hoping for.
- Anthony Citrano
@Gregory I had a feeling you might like this post. :)
- Anthony Citrano
Robert, you get over your hoarding impulse by spending on things that lower your expenses over time. There is no shortage of those: Fresher produce (ie. locally grown), energy-efficient appliances, more durable clothing, etc. For your specific example (a shower), look into water-efficient shower heads.
- Michael R. Bernstein
Those are all optional expenses. Won't be happening anytime soon, sorry.
- Robert Scoble
Oil should start its well awaited decline towards $50 range
- imran
Keep dancing around it guys; but, do know that we're dancing at the edge of a cliff.
- Anthony Citrano
Anthony: I thought your ideas are good, but we're not ready for that yet. It's amazing to me that so many on Twitter and here (er, around the world) are just encouraging the total burning of our economy. So, I figure, we need to go through a year of burning. Burn, baby, burn. Hoard, baby, hoard. Then we can have a real conversation about what to do now and how to build a new economy on top of the ruins. In the meantime, hope your house doesn't get burned down in this mess that's coming.
- Robert Scoble
Yeah, I was talking to my mechanic yesterday ... he still feels that a bailout is for "someone else." I mean, yeah, we're *all* feeling the effects of high gas prices, but the effects of the "credit crisis" ... You'll forgive me if I say that "main street" hasn't felt that yet. So (to hack up yet another political quote) main street's quite ready to say "thanks, but no thanks" to that bailout for noone ... and let the markets spin for awhile.
- Joel Bennett
@Gregory: Consumer revolving debt will top 1 TRILLION by the end of the year. I simply don't think anyone truly understands the effect of offering so many so much credit.
- AJ Kohn
Nice to see people finally talking about the substance. I wrote an in depth piece today on the natural selection of a market recession. We can attenuate some of the acute pain, but we can stop the cycle of disruption. We ensured the intensity of the coming chaos by trying to forestall it. Now the deadwood has to burn. There is a silver lining. http://www.chriskenton.com
- Chris Kenton
from twhirl
Chris - thanks. I am not terribly optimistic that my rallying cry will do much - but here's hoping.
- Anthony Citrano
Robert, food and clothing aren't 'optional'. Spending more for fresher food makes you healthier and increases your productivity, and reduces your future medical expenses. Spending more on durable clothing saves money on buying replacements.
- Michael R. Bernstein
Catharsis has its own merits. :) People will listen when they're affected. Compared to the conversation I saw three weeks ago even after the initial crisis started, there's now a chorus. Keep up the cries.
- Chris Kenton
from twhirl
The initial crisis started well over 25 years ago, but I take your point. When and if they do listen, it may be too late.
- Anthony Citrano
Anthony - funny picture!! hilarious!! ha, ha!!
- Susan Beebe
The underlying issue isn't hilarious, though, is it? I wonder what percentage of FFers are bothering to actually read the piece... the silence is deafening.
- Anthony Citrano
Thanks Anthony, this is a strong call to arms to invest our time in campaigns, issues and nonprofits. Have any favorites that you personally choose to invest your time in?
- Jason Wehmhoener
I think a point that can be difficult to grasp is that there are other measures of a society's health beyond personal wealth. Finances are easy to express in nice simple integers, but the degree to which individual people will be able to weather the inevitable changes of our times has to do with a great many more dimensions than those determined by money alone.
- Jason Wehmhoener
I was raised by teen parents who were by definition poor. However, my mother is a librarian, and I was taught that knowledge is power. She was right. I'm doing very well financially now, in spite of having dropped out of college as a freshman for financial reasons.
- Jason Wehmhoener
@Robert - I missed your earlier suggestion that "we're not ready" to stand up and take personal responsibility for our future. That may be true, but if it is, it's heartbreaking - and we deserve what we get.
- Anthony Citrano
Oh, my, http://www.cloudcontacts.com/ totally rocks. They scanned 1,100+ business cards in just a couple of days and WOW does this make them more useful!
Each contact has a picture of the scanned card. Plus a file I can import into Outlook or Gmail. Plus a link to all the social networks that the service can find for that person. I totally want to follow everyone here on friendfeed.
- Robert Scoble
This is Allen Stern's company and it rocks. Yo, Allen, you are onto something here. You can build a real social network: made up of people I've actually met (and I can prove it).
- Robert Scoble
used the service myself, love it! go allen!
- sean percival
Thanks Robert! Glad you like the service.
- Allen Stern
That's cool Robert! Dynamically build a socnet based on your collection of biz cards. Wow. Allen you rock. I've got a pile of biz cards from the past 15 years sitting around doing nothing. Would be interesting to see what kind of patterns might be extracted in such a system.
- Brian Daniel Eisenberg
Not to be cynical, but I couldn't find anything in their FAQ, or their Privacy Policy that prevents them from using the information from your business cards in the same way JigSaw does. That seems like a pretty significant oversight of disclosure. Are they creating a master database from all the cards they collect, with names, contact and job titles?
- Chris Kenton
from twhirl
Chris: interesting question! I'm sure Allen will answer that soon. I don't care, really, because I've noticed that business cards go out of date very quickly. That's why I want them hooked up with LinkedIn and Facebook because those are kept up to date much more often than business card databases are.
- Robert Scoble
From the Terms and Conditions page: "CloudContacts may, now or in the future, use the submitted card data to market to you, and provide you with information about, our products and services, including but not limited to our Service. In addition, the card database may be opened to the public at which time all customers will have the option to opt-out or at any point in the future. All...
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- Brian Daniel Eisenberg
Brian-- Thanks for pointing me to that. Not sure, though. "The card database may be opened to the public at which time all customers will have the option to opt-out or at any point in the future. All public contacts may also opt-out at any time." Does that mean that when you submit your cards, your submission opts your contacts in to a public database, to which they have to then opt out...
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- Chris Kenton
from twhirl
Cool service. Yo Allen, will it ever be available for non US citizens?
- Nir Ben Yona
mmmmm, Amazon's mechanical turk is a more efficient way to do it. 100 cards for $ 29.95 is $ .29 each, very expensive.
- Sebastian Wain
Thanks everyone for the feedback. Let me answer your q's... @Nir - we have processed many orders from other countries - as long as the cards use latin/roman characters, we can process them (no Japanese/Hebrew/Russian yet..) @Loic - sure, we can handle your cards including the ones in French - and we will not be selling your data to any 3rd party or anything like that. Thanks!
- Allen Stern
@Allen. I appreciate the follow up on not selling data. Can you shed a little more light on the opt out policy for non-customers whose cards are uploaded? When and if the database goes public, is the policy that card data will be public unless someone asks specifically to opt-out? Or is the policy that uploaded card information will not be public unless a non-customer opts-in to have their information public? Thanks.
- Chris Kenton
from twhirl
So we all get them, but do we use them? If we want to know something about someone don't we simply google them? Probably too simplistic.
- Sheryl
I really like Cloud Contacts, think it's a really nifty and useful service. Louis Gray introduced me to Allen at SXSW and we had a great chat, turns out we're both from New York (originally in my case).
- Eric Berlin
Thanks Eric - was great meeting you as well.
- Allen Stern
I'm confused, we have a card scanner at work where we slide in business cards and it imports them into excel, word, pdf, and makes them into address labels which feeds into the label maker. It's just a thing we bought at the local office store, does this do something different?
- Steve C
Allen- I'm still hoping for some light to be shed on the opt-out policy for non-customers whose cards are scanned. If I hand my card to someone who eventually uses your service, and you take the database public, all of my contact information will be publicly published until i ask for it to be removed? I think this is a really fundamental issue, and it's only scratching the surface. Will...
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- Chris Kenton
from twhirl
Seriously business cards in a cloud? Talk about tenuous links to a hot industry. What's next Buggy Whips as a Service (BWAAS).
- James Ketchell
i think i would like to use your service Allen, but this question about pissing off people ala Jigsaw is the one thing that stops me. also, i'd love it if the URLs on the cards were followed and semantically analyzed for tagging the person by topic
- Marshall Kirkpatrick
@steve - we save you the time of the scan, the accuracy of the scan and provide contact pages for each person with tons more information than what's on the card. @chris - not sure how much better i can answer the question - I am not publishing your specific information (or the information from your cards) - i hope that helps answer your question - looking forward to your order!
- Allen Stern
@marshall - i like that idea and have added it to the idea list - I am coding as quick as i can -- first up are connections to the web email services via api and categorization.
- Allen Stern
what would make it really valuable on the "find social links for the people scanned" would be if it regularly rechecked. After all, that is the bit of the job I dont get around to doing, searching old contacts to see if they have joined anything - they might not have been on twitter, facebook etc. then but perhaps they joined last week? That kind of search is already hard work to do manually when entering the cards in the first place, but it is just not something you can do manually every 3 months.
- Joelle Nebbe (iphigenie)
OK. I've posted 4 times here asking for a basic answer to a fundamental question about the logical extension of your service, and you won't address the question. I don't want to draw conclusions, but I can only assume you're creating what you hope will be a viral service to get people to not only provide you with a mountain of business card data, but to actually *pay you* to upload it...
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- Chris Kenton
from twhirl
Thats cool... I am way to lazy/false_busy to ever get all the business cards together, but very cool.
- Cody Heitschmidt
Chris - I believe I have answered your question already but let me try again. I would/will never do anything that I don't want done to myself - I am not posting (and do not plan to post) any personal information from any of the cards to the public. I have revised the terms page accordingly.
- Allen Stern
Allen, I don't believe you ever answered Chris' question. Even your last post says "do not plan to" rather than "will not" - I won't even bother to go check out your revised terms page - I don't see how it could settle anything when you avoid the issue in open discussion. For one hypothetical: you sell the venture and there is no restraint on the buyer just because you said trust me for I'm a good guy and I've told you thrice "I have no plan"
- David HC Soul
Allen--Thanks for following up. Look. I run my own business. I'm not into going around throwing stones when I'm sure someone will find some stones to throw at me. What ever you do is between you and your customers. I'm just pointing out what I know will trip some people's wires.
- Chris Kenton
from twhirl
"That's not a photo of New York. It's actually many photos of New York, textured on 3D models in Google Earth's latest update. And it's truly nothing short of amazing."
- Chris Messina
from Bookmarklet
Wow! I loaded up after seeing your post, and was like, whatever. Went away for coffee, came back, and photo reality was staring back at me. Thanks for the heads up. Beautiful!
- Chris Kenton
from twhirl
Totally agree here. LinkedIn should not try to be Facebook.
- Louis Gray
Mostly agree. I agree that it shouldn't try to become an ad-driven destination site. But I would appreciate a few more tools for connecting with my professional network. For me, only about 30-40% of my professional contacts are active on Facebook, FriendFeed or Twitter. And the email basis of communication via LinkedIn fits the style of the rest.
- Chris Kenton
from twhirl
My family communicates via LinkedIn, specifically BECAUSE it's not Facebook.
- Helen Sventitsky
Robert - the physical meeting will never be replaced. Yes, we can use email and im and web conferenceing and social network, but that face to face meeting bridges gaps and builds confidence like nothing else. For instance, I collaborate with the entire Lotus community year round, but Lotusphere is still packed because drinking a beer together builds bridges like no other
- John Head
from twhirl
Call me crazy (happens all the time), but I think there is something to be said for meeting in person. Do you have to be in the same room to get business done? Heck no, but meeting someone face to face takes a relationship (business or otherwise) to a whole 'nother level. Otherwise, why else would everyone make such a big deal about people with only online friends?
- FFing Enigma (aka Tina)
Paul: If that's true, people like Scoble and myself wouldn't bother traveling to these shows. And we do. Skype is fine, but it doesn't replace tradeshows.
- David Risley
David: yeah, you're right. It doesn't replace the $500 a night hotel rooms, the crappy food, the 2-hour taxi lines, the 2-hour waits to get into decent restaurants, the 1-hour lines waiting to get a badge. I'm sorry, I forgot about all those face-to-face in-person one-on-one experiences.
- Robert Scoble
This discussion has been going on a long time. Have any of you experienced the Bioneers model?
- Kenley Neufeld
John, Not to disagree with your but that can be done without a tradeshow. Most of the things I would want to see first is relevance and what will it do for me? That can be handle with a video conference. Then if I like what I see we meet up no more wasting money on ideas that I don't think will work!!
- Paul
John: you're right, of course, but most of us get more out of small events with, say, 200 people. Just like an Apple press conference. Or a Facebook one. Or an EA one. They don't need to go to the massive trade shows anymore.
- Robert Scoble
+1 Tina. Face to face is better than an eMeeting anyday. And this from a guy whose clients are all 8300 miles away from his office. :-)
- vijay
Scoble: (1) You travel. A lot. Why don't you just Skype everybody then? (2) $500/night? You know, there are cheaper options. ;-)
- David Risley
Who gets face to face time at a big trade show besides the people like Scoble? Me? I don't think so. For us it's like a big mall around Christmas time, except you can't buy anything and you can't get anyone to help you. It was different when they had enough money to put a little scmoozing on the lame masses, but now...
- Eric @ CSTechcast.com
Good Point Eric. I agree on all that. We don't get face to face time at these big trade shows and it doesn't help them that much in the process it is like a hit or miss.
- Paul
The really big shows like CES are much more impersonal. There is definitely more value in the smaller ones, in my experience.
- David Risley
Robert - I don't go to a conference of 5,000 + like Lotusphere for the news from IBM. I go to meet the developers, learn, and network. I generate 50% of my yearly rainmaking from 5 days in Orlando every Janurary. I also get new ideas from the product showcase that spark things I want to do. Maybe there is a difference between something like CES and Lotusphere and TechEd. But I think those become more valiable going forward, not decline
- John Head
from twhirl
John, If you need ides I suggest doing a podcast or even blogging. I find I get some great content when I blog and it brings out even more ideas from time time. That is the only way I get new ideas is to use Friend feed!! ;)
- Paul
Paul, good point. Getting active in the space brings great data and you're giving as much as receiving. My podcast attracts very smart people I wouldn't normally get a chance to chat with,
- Eric @ CSTechcast.com
I do blog. and I do get ideas from twitter and FF and FB and all that jazz. But the most profitable and most reward ideas of the past 5 years have all been face to face generated
- John Head
from twhirl
But Robert, why do you travel so much then? Face to face is important.
- ChiliMac
from twhirl
ChiliMac: actually I am going to cut down on conference travel. Turns out that it's not very good for my business. I don't get the best interviews at conferences. Also, when I do get a scoop Techmeme puts Gizmodo at the top anyway even though Gizmodo didn't attend the news event, so I might as well stay home and reblog press releases. Just kidding.
- Robert Scoble
ChiliMac: face-to-face is important but not that important anymore. And, if it is important it is far more efficient at a 1000 attendee event rather than a 200,000 attendee one.
- Robert Scoble
I'd go further than that. I think the ideal face-to-face event is 25-40. I started running elite retreats in Hawaii last year with 15 CMOs, and it was incredible.
- Chris Kenton
Chris: I agree. Actually I like dinners with four people. Then the conversation never splits.
- Robert Scoble
Interestingly, there is a lag on trends like this to the enterprise. At work, trade shows in 2008 were among the most successful revenue drivers. Still. But in the last downturn, they went almost to zero, so we're being careful on the budget.
- Louis Gray
How can it be important but not that important? Either it's important or it's not. There's a big difference between a voice on a phone and a face to face communication. Yes, 90% of communication is non-verbal. It may be a priority to cut back on travel, but that doesn't negate its importance.
- Bwana ☠
Bwana: it is important but not "stand in a two hour taxi line" important. Especially when the economy sucks and especially when there are a lot better face-to-face venues like smaller events, stores, and private meetings.
- Robert Scoble
It may not be important to some corporations, but companies like Apple who have so many fanboys - it matters. Macworld is important because it's apart of Apple's culture. Apple needs to do something, like put on their own show. They can't lose their core crowd.
- John
"when there are a lot better face-to-face venues like smaller events, stores, and private meetings." And these are face to face right? Why wouldn't Skype work for those as well?
- Bwana ☠
A different perspective: I spent a lot of time in retail auto sales, managing a sales department. Very, very rarely was a sale made 'over the phone.' The best sales tecnique ever invented was the 'puppy dog:' have the customer take the vehicle home overnight. My point is trade shows are for buyers and sellers to get together. That you don't get good interviews, Robert, is because you...
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- MVB (Curmudgeon of FF)
"Look techdork, technology doesn't solve problems - humans do!" --Chris Brogan. ;-) Some of the best relationships I've formed have been in person, shaking hands, face-to-face, at trade shows.
- Jesse Stay
I've been organizing some trade shows and I'm convinced that they're relevant, if only to gather with some people that might still not be that comfortable on Social Media, like some investors.
- Paul Papadimitriou
One must be the change that is needed. For simple information exchange, flesh nor paper nor petrol is needed. Save the body for only the best of times.
- david beckwith
Robert - if you stay home, won't your videos/interviews get even more insulated to SV? I am far more interested in whats going on outside SV
- John Head
from twhirl
That would be a cool video. What I love about CES is the 'Asia' rooms, where the suppliers and factories being out all of their toys. It's not covered by the main tech media as it isn't as 'flash' or 'pizzazz'--it's not done with professional PR in mind. But back there is where you find some really geeky stuff -- diamonds in the rough (there is also a lot of silly junk back there too -- it's a hunt).
- Andrew Leyden
Any bets on the size of CES this year compared to last? I remember the Western Cable Show in '01 compared to '00, and it was stunning.
- Chris Kenton
from twhirl
it would be cooler to follow around, whomever has replaced Sharper Image as the cool tool shop. - BB will survey what's marketable in large quantity.
- clarke thomas
That's the real work of CES. It would be a fantastic video (if you edit it and don't post everything you shoot).
- Michael Markman
The other unreported but cool thing is that hotel at CES that is taken over by the high-end stereo geeks. High end in like $45,000 for a turntable. There are some funky things down there. (they take over the old hotel because the walls are very very thick and they can blast music in one room without distorting the sound in another).
- Andrew Leyden
I would use Google FriendConnect if Facebook hadn't pulled out. They took with them a whole lot of the benefit. Shouldn't it be possible, through the Facebook API, for Google to put FB back in the mix, with or without consent? If so, would that be game, set, match?
- Robert Clockedile
I had planned on adding the Facebook connect plugin for Wordpress until I found out it created user accounts in Wordpress. I don't want that kind of clutter in my DB. Hopefully a simple alternative becomes available soon.
- Mark Krynsky
Great, only now I understand your twitter message (I should have checked here first!) thank you for the link. So yes, I have GFC, but here's what I really have to say about it: http://blog.go2web20.net/2008...
- Orli Yakuel
Currently using Google Friend Connect at Keener Living: http://www.keenerliving.com/ Plan to implement Facebook Connect as well within the next couple of weeks.
- Bruce Keener
Great time to be in Paris. Can almost smell the chestnuts roasting. Enjoyed La Coupole in Montparnasse.
- Chris Kenton
from twhirl
Why are you making me jealous! It's the one place I dream of visiting but have never been to. Must make it a point to go and quit dreaming. Take lots of pics!
- Adriana
I agree -- great time to be there. A little cool (but I came back to Canada last year after Paris in late November to -20c and snow so in comparison not so bad), but with the right clothes there I kept warm. Getting into museums and other venues was dead easy -- no crowds.
- Brian Sullivan
I'll be there for New Years. Tell me if there is anywhere I should go. I am also doing London, Budapest, Vienna, and Prague. First time for Europe.
- Daniel Zarick
What are people's opinions on the best blogging platform for someone who is a beginner but who doesn't want to be hit with nasty technical limitations if things go well?
I had issues with wpress... just wouldnt go right.. so host own using blogger... tho I have had experienced bloggers thinking mine was a wpress one :o) Not to hard to make it look less like a blogger one! :o)
- Rob Sellen :o)
wordpress.com is the best for beginners. Later, if the learn more and want to do more, they can easily migrate to another platform.
- Bora Zivkovic
Does Drupal count as a "blogging platform"? It's certainly very extensible though, which helps with mitigating "nasty technical limitations" for what it's worth.
- Tyson Key
I've hosted on Typepad and Wordpress for years. Can't say enough good things about Wordpress. Dumped Typepad.
- Chris Kenton
from twhirl
Thats not really true.. stick a total newbie on wpress... say nothing, see how they fare... blogger is the easiest by a mile.
- Rob Sellen :o)
I agree with Tyson if the future limitations is the major concern. On the other hand it´s pretty easy to export from Tumblr when you want to move on (but i guess that is "micro-blogging").
- Thomas Bøhm
Dont get me wrong mind.. not saying blogger is better or anything, or not to use wpress... just its not so eay to use for some.. you lot are a bit savvier.. :o)
- Rob Sellen :o)
By far Wordpress.org plenty of tools for beginners to ease use.
- Maria Reyes-McDavis
why do people keep saying that??? stick a total newbie on a pc... get them to try settng up a wpress blog how they want it.. watch them look puzzled... I have done it.. sat there and watched someone try it...not saying thats the case for everyone... just that a broad assumption like that is misleading.
- Rob Sellen :o)
you don't stick a newbie on a pc, you sit WITH the newbie on a pc and guide their hand, teach them the basics. Once they get those - and it takes 15 minutes - they can go it alone and explore easily, no matter how tech-unsavvy they are.
- Bora Zivkovic
You can... but i wanted to see what was confusing him etc... he knew that too ;o) I did help him in the end.. but needed to know what he was doing first ;o)
- Rob Sellen :o)
Wow - thanks for the feedback! I got the impression from my own researches that WP was best, but I didn't want to be blinded by slick, however the group seems to be confirming that it's as good as it looks. I also realize that 'beginner' is a bit vague. In this case, the beginner is me, and I am a beginner blogger, but not a beginner techie. That said, I don't want to invest a lot of time at the command line - I just want to do some writing.
- Robin Barooah
Give it a go... :o) good luck, sure any of will help if we can :o)
- Rob Sellen :o)
break a leg media style ;-) Let us know the address when it gets going properly!
- InPerpetualMotion(Gina k)
I love wordpress. However if you want to have the run of the house in terms of control and a great developer community to stand behind, i would look at ExpressionEngine. It comes standard with a blog, but is really a full blown CMS.
- Sean Scott
wow, crazy. tell her to contact me if she needs any development
- Jason Pratt
I am trying to remain personally optimistic, but I don't believe the bottom has been reached.
- Louis Landon
This is what I love about being a student and working with other students. I can do everything much cheaper. $1 mil would probably fund my current business for 2+ years easily.
- Daniel Zarick
It'll get worse before it gets better. Next two quarters will be tough.
- Patricia
@Louis Landon Me too. I still hope thing will get better.
- Marcel Janus
how people/firms/investors respond in bad times is much more telling of their character than how they respond in good times. they're doing it because they think they can get away with it. that window will close.
- Bryce Roberts
Look, things are really bad and getting worse. They will eventually get better as Patricia says, but it will be hard for very many people. No one is really insulated, but there's no point in panicking or worrying about what you can't fix. However, we all should try to understand WTF happened and learn from it. I just shared a speech today by Charlie McCreevy of the European Commission in my timeline that everyone should read. It's simple and clear.
- Dominic Jones
I don't doubt that VCs are having a tough time, but Intel Capital wanting to lower the valuation to $1 doesn't mean Intel Capital is having a tough time. It means some of the previous investors who participated in the rounds leading to the $5 mil are no longer putting in more money, and Intel wants to squeeze them out. They don't want to carry nonperforming investors. Those other VCs might be shutting down, I guess.
- DGentry
You kinda get the feeling that the 'world' is on hold until someone, anyone, suggests a REAL solution. Crazy stuff
- Charlie Anzman
I have to say I agree with Denton. Value of a company is still consistent with the market. At the end, you're only worth what somebody's willing to pay.
- Patricia
I also agree what Denton and Patricia have said.
- imabonehead
I recently had one of those 'holy shit' idea moments, and I am wondering if I'll even be able to get seed capital.
- Michael R. Bernstein
In many ways this is just a sign of a smart VC is it not? I'm hearing that most VCs are going to be lowballing valuations in 2009, using the economy as the 'excuse'. Extend your runway if you can and wait until the funding environment isn't as unbalanced.
- AJ Kohn
I can understand if the lowered value was just 1M but from 5 to 1? That's gotta suck
- Canada's Web Shop
Well the other thing is that VC isn't always the ideal expansion route. Everybody gets excited about, because it can be useful and it can be the right thing - but as somebody mentored by quite a few successful serial entrepreneurs, and a few VC, everybody says the same: don't do it unless you have to. The barrier of entry and costs of web business are so low. I went three years self...
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- Patricia
@Chris: Absolutely. I'm not saying there's not a real risk. The risk/reward ratio is steeper in this environment. But VCs are going to over-correct IMO, both to protect against risk and maximize reward.
- AJ Kohn
As someone working on his own startup right now I can say categorically that if you are looking to raise VC money you are nuts. There IS NO potential for massive growth right now... there is no expendable income in the economy. Bootstrap - find partners and customers... sell what you can and try and survive. That is all.
- Brian Roy
As CEO of a startup, I gave up on Venture Capital in September. Anyone paying attention could see the signs of slowing investment since the spring. But September slammed the door. What worries me now, though, isn't the VC markets. What worries me is the credit card market. AMEX is slashing credit limits, which will hurt small businesses and slow innovation far more than any VC slowdown....
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- Chris Kenton
from twhirl
So a good time for the super rich to help small businesses then ;o)
- Rob Sellen :o)
The first question you have to ask yourself is - can I do this and generate profit (or at minimum be revenue neutral)? If not you've got big problems. You have to do whatever you need to do to get to profit... NOW.
- Brian Roy
Biggest way for them to boost revenue NOW would be to better track what they do, what works, what don't.. to much is simply wasted. Plough whats wasted into what works..what you KNOW works.. :o)
- Rob Sellen :o)
Oddly enough, this is the time when you can actually build real businesses and not starry-eyed-shoot-for-the-moon efforts.
- mikepk
Lol.. but shoot high... no point shooting low... fail often fail fast... :o)
- Rob Sellen :o)
You can shoot high without drawing the "hockey stick", "we're going to grow to 20 million users worldwide in a year" statements that are necessary for VC funding. There *is* a middle ground, but problem is, if there are enough VC backed companies giving away everything for free to get "eyeballs" they suck out all the oxygen in the space. It's tough if you're not trying to be the next Google.
- mikepk
But you have to remember - it is DEAD on both sides. You can't raise capital and you have to be able to sell it to someone... who is buying? I'm not saying don't do it (hell I'm doing it right now). I'm saying get realistic...
- Brian Roy
All you CAN do is RAISE the VALUE you give. :o)
- Rob Sellen :o)
I almost think that VC's are trying to take advantage of the poor economic climate and steal deals away from hard working entrepreneurs. A 80% drop in valuation is brutle, and I hope this particular owner denies Intel the deal.
- Jeremy Campbell
from twhirl
If so, need to proove the real value of what you have and get the VC's wanting to invest in you... YOU as a biz be the picky one.. zig zag whatever ;o)
- Rob Sellen :o)
It may be dead on both sides, but even in a downturn, if you can provide real value people will pay for it. This is especially true if your value proposition is based on boosting the efficiency of your customers to help them in the downturn.
- mikepk
In the height of a cycle, with everyone trying to "shoot the moon", you can end up with VC backed companies giving away your value proposition for free to get traffic. This not only invalidates your value prop, it also has the unfortunate side effect of raised expectations of what should or should not be free. It's not sustainable and we're going to see a collapse of a lot of free services (IMHO).
- mikepk
mikepk - I completely agree... but if you are doing free to attract huge subscriber base that isn't happening. Someone I respect yesterday told me to go "free/premium". I said no. Because in this environment there is no way to cover the operational costs of the free. 1) Find a way to add value 2) Sell it
- Brian Roy
Interesting conversation this is ggetting to be.. 1, increase value of what you have 2, sell it!!! sums it up.. as i been saying but in more words. :o)
- Rob Sellen :o)
@Rob but timing is important too. You're not the only one who controls the value of what you offer (unfortunately). Other companies can deflate your value offering to zero by giving it away for free. Even if they themselves can't sustain it, they have money to *outlast* you. Now with the downturn, I think the everything free model will dry up, and people will have more control of the value proposition they can offer.
- mikepk
Of course all of that is just the market at work. The "build the next google startup" VC-cycle phenomenon has interesting market effects though. :)
- mikepk
The other aspect about this market that's getting interesting is the strategic and M&A activity. If you built your company on fluff and spin, good luck. If you built your company but thinking carefully about your business plan and investing wisely in your technology, you've got a good shot at getting strategic investment or getting aquired. Once again, value creation is your only leverage when the chips are down.
- Chris Kenton
from twhirl
So you diversify, provide a UNIQUE value the "others" dont have... better customer service would be a huge start! ;o)
- Rob Sellen :o)
when the market was high you had VCs with a lot of money, and over-valued companies flush with cash. Which meant your business plan could be just to gain traction and buzz (also known by the technical expression "we'll get cool and google or aol will buy us") - neither flotation nor purchase are likely to be credible options to a VC now, which means they will want to see old style...
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- Joelle Nebbe (iphigenie)
which to me means I would like to see friendfeed making money somehow, as I would very much like to keep it in existence and see some of the clever social grid filtering they are thinking about.
- Joelle Nebbe (iphigenie)
BTW. I had a smart VC tell me over the summer they could give me funding, but thought it would be a tactical mistake--that we'd be walking into a buzz saw. Like it or not, once you take the cash, the clock is ticking, and a market downturn is no excuse for missing numbers. If you're going after money, you need a business plan that will perform in the current environment--why else would...
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- Chris Kenton
from twhirl
... really good at scraping up bacon and LOLCAT images. ;-)
- Chris Baskind
I have a new slogan. FriendFeed, free crowdsourcing at its finest!
- Mark Krynsky
Increasing the number of people doesn't necessarily make the selection of material better. Plus, you also end up with a lot of duplication.
- Morton Fox
Morton: heh, the repetition tells me it's important! :-)
- Robert Scoble
Morton, with the new grouping feature, the duplication just bubbles the story up again. This promotes the "importance" angle while complimenting the "freshness".
- Rob Diana
Jason: here's the deal, though. I have 4,800 smart people reporting to me. I've hand picked them all. No stupid people allowed. And even there I've taken the best and put them in a separate list of only 200 people. I'm getting news that never makes it to Techmeme.
- Robert Scoble
DON'T touch the ink!! Whatever you do, don't get any of that ink on you: it does NOT come out of clothing. Also, it never properly dries, so you'll get that ink all over yourself, your car, and your house.
- FFing Enigma (aka Tina)
Can't blame you. Newspapers, despite their declines, still command a LOT of influence. Fun to see where the magic happens.
- Hutch Carpenter
The facilities manager was happy to see us. As if someone still cared. Said "all we do is talk about death here." he remembers the day when they had 14 people working in his department. They now have four.
- Robert Scoble
I grew up around the Modesto Bee. Those presses were noisy, and exciting to watch.
- Russellreno
My Dad was asst editor for Star Ledger in NJ. Love his stories. Real salt of the earth type stuff.
- Hans Eisenman
I dare you to scream at the top of your lungs: "Print is dead!!!" ..Double dare..
- Bwana ☠
I worked there 93-95. Hope you saw the cool robots in the paper storage room. They are mesmerizing. And there's nothing like the rumble in the floor when the press is running. There's a reason why newspapers are called the Daily Miracle.
- Charlene Li
I still love print. and always will love the feel of a newsroom. nothing like it. best rush on earth.
- Erin @queenofspain
I interviewed the Publisher, who was very realistic about economy and future of news and an Emmy-award winning photographer. Good stuff, now onto Facebook.
- Robert Scoble
Bwana: they would have said "tell us something new."
- Robert Scoble
Ask if they've made the newspaper physically narrower. I've got a bet with someone.
- dkb
Robert, how much of the reduction from 14 to 4 is a result of technology advances, and how much is a result of declining revenue?
- Ontario Emperor
When I was a junior at Cal, working at the Mercury News sounded like a dream job.
- Louis Gray
Robert - Sounds like fun... you do have a cool day job!
- Susan Beebe
I love the Mercury News. Got to tour their offices back when I was still a wee journalism student. They were my first choice for my internship but apparently they're EVERYONE's choice. LOL I ended up elsewhere.
- tinypants - Hagitha of FF
Take a picture because the future of newspapers is a weekly/monthly print run and that's it! the day of daily printed papers is coming to an end.
- Jason Calacanis
National daily papers will continue, Locals will move to 'Examiner' Commuter 10-minute read model.
- Cliff Gerrish
For nostalgia, see the film "Farewell, Etaoin Shrdlu" (1980), documenting the last night that the NY Times used hot lead typesetting.
- Michael Markman
Hey, quit calling my profession dead! Trying to make a living here! Damn punks and your web machine boxes. You aren't going to line your bird cages with web pages in the future.
- Kevin Leroux
Naturally, it probabaly works way better than in an iPhone. Right?
- Roberto Bonini
I couldn't agree more: the GReader interface on the G1 is really *really* nice. Actually, I kinda like it better than the standard web interface. I can zoom through new items and star items of interest faster on the phone than I can on my computer. The ability to open items in a new browser window also makes it usable for actually reading, and not just skimming posts.
- FFing Enigma (aka Tina)
I like the browser a bit better in the iphone (easier to click on links) but I love the keyboard on the g1. Its a toss up.
- DeWitt Clinton
Everyone should be testing their site via Android now, wrote up directions for testing via a PC here: http://bit.ly/jztO Pretty slick.
- Ben Hedrington
I couldn't live without it myself. Works beautifully on both iPhone and Android, though as DeWitt says, it's a bit easier to hit the links on the iPhone (of course, my G1 is a prototype whose touch screen is a bit screwed up).
- Joel Webber
I'm pretty much paralyzed by the iPhone/G1 choice, and as a result I'm muddling along with my trusty Treo. I've switched entirely to the Gmail/Google Reader platform (from Outlook) so the G1 is pretty appealing, but I'd say 80%+ of my handheld use is SMS, and the landscape-flip-out-mushy-keyboard-only keyboard of the G1 scares me. Please tell me what do to. ;-)
- Ken Sheppardson
I'd prefer a t-mobile contract over an AT&T contract, all other things being equal.
- DeWitt Clinton
I also have a 2G iPhone, but I'm mostly using the G1 now. The iPhone is, honestly, still a lot slicker for many things, and I'm basically split on the keyboard issue (I can type a bit faster on the G1, but I don't have serious issues with the iPhone). The clincher for me is SMS and GMail/GCal support on the G1 -- I can't use the iPhone's crappy mail app, and absolutely *love* having a direct window onto my GMail account.
- Joel Webber
The thing I love most about mobile reader is the "mark these read" link (as opposed to the "mark all read" it makes it much easier to go through incrementally. I wish they'd port that over to the main Reader interface.
- felix
@ken I'm in the same boat. What's the viability of a future software keyboard for portrait use of SMS?
- Chris Kenton
from twhirl
Chris: I had an eval iPhone for a few days when they first came out and it wasn't enough time to adapt...didn't come close to the tactile feedback you get using the inside corners of your thumbnail on a good portrait Treo/Blackberry style keyboard... but I suspect it's something I could get used to if necessary. I believe there are plans in place for a software portrait mode Android keyboard, not exclusively for the G1, and I'd expect to see something no later than 09'Q1
- Ken Sheppardson
That's why we stopped talking to VCs. The one's we really want to work with are focused on helping their portfolio companies through the worst of the downturn. A few that we talked to were just plain mercenary. Our path now is 1) focus on customers and revenue. Cash flow rules. 2) if you can, find some strategic investment with partners, or, better yet, pre-sell volume at a discount for...
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- Chris Kenton
from twhirl
Hm. They cite a survey on the effectiveness of PR fielded by a PR company. The results are such a surprise.
- Chris Kenton
from twhirl
... and having just looked more closely at what they do (http://tinyurl.com/6rc3bx) I'm not so sure I'm a fan of their 'DIY PR' approach. They themselves say PR is about people, but it looks to me like their model bypasses human beings?
- Brendan Cooper
from twhirl
Because they are laying off all of their marketing and PR staff.
- Devlin Dunsmore
from twhirl
"There are not enough qualified PR individual consultants to help smaller companies with smaller budgets." There is a reason for that and the post gives it. PR takes time. Isn't this a market failure? Expensive consultants are not the answer to everything - why not think about having a PR person in house?
- sofiagk
So is it worth it to hire an agency for $10k? Despite the listed downsides...its seems the funding benefits still make it worth it. Take things one step at a time - lead generation funnel comes after getting the coin.
- JP Adams
You dont need a 10k PR agency to get results. There are always people coming out of agencies and setting out their own 1-2-3 person company. They are clued up, eager, and far more flexible and creative, and yet they still have the contacts. Back when I ran a web agency our PR worked for a combination of money and contra deals (web/tech/it costs a lot too!) and got us a lot of the coverage we needed, bbc, radio, events etc. We had to be clever, being self financed.
- Joelle Nebbe (iphigenie)
No I don't think you need that kind of money early on. You just need to be flexible and invest your time. Get someone inhouse to build connections online and the media - if you product is good it can be done. It just needs a lot of time and enthusiasm. When you do have the money, maybe you can consider bringing in the big guns for specific campaigns I think.
- sofiagk
I think that is a useful thing to keep in mind for a tech startup - your knowledge and skills are also extremely expensive out in the marketplace, and your PR agency might need you to learn to navigate the new space as much as you need them to get you the attention of the fickle media. It is an option and I suspect contra deal/bartering will make a comeback in the current climate
- Joelle Nebbe (iphigenie)
...merge and create double-the-mediocre quality cars...
- Glenn Batuyong
from twhirl
What they need to do is build better cars, period. There's a reason Honda is kicking ass in the market.
- Tyler Hurst
from twhirl
I think Microsoft should buy them instead of Yahoo. Then we could have SUVs running on Vista. Now that's synergy of vision.
- Chris Kenton
from twhirl
Chris: Ford lent me a new Flex SUV (which was mondo awesome) and it had Microsoft Sync running in it. You talked to it to do various tasks like switch on the radio or increase the temperature, etc.
- Robert Scoble
Robert: No question, innovation's cool. I just find I like it better when the basics work too. It seems so many American companies have a hard time getting the basics right, and expect us to be wowed by shiny new objects.
- Chris Kenton
from twhirl
"Israel said today US president-elect Barack Obama's stated readiness to talk to Iran could be seen in the Middle East as a sign of weakness in efforts to persuade Tehran to curb its nuclear programme. "We live in a neighbourhood in which sometimes dialogue -- in a situation where you have brought sanctions, and you then shift to dialogue -- is liable to be interpreted as weakness," foreign minister Tzipi Livni said, asked on Israel Radio about policy change toward Tehran in an Obama administration. Her remarks sounded the first note of dissonance with Mr Obama by a senior member of the Israeli government since the Democrat's sweeping victory over Republican candidate John McCain in the US presidential election on Tuesday. Asked if she supported any US dialogue with Iran, Ms Livni replied: "The answer is no.""
- Sean McBride
from Bookmarklet
So: who is going to make American foreign policy? Tzipi Livni or Barack Obama?
- Sean McBride
Israel has nuclear power too. Is it OK for USA to speak to Israel [and finance its wars]?
- ĎÚβĨŐÚŚ Dod
This is what to watch closely: will the Israeli government and the Israel lobby effectively bend Barack Obama to their will on this issue? Will Obama cave in to the Rahm Emanuels at the highest levels of the Democratic Party? Will neocons succeed in expanding the Iraq War to Iran? The drama is about to unfold.
- Sean McBride
I swear, I wish we would just let that whole chunk of the world do what it wants and mind our own business. Too much mythical thinking.
- Neal Jansons
Mythical (Armageddonist) thinking in the Mideast could destroy the United States and the entire world. That's the main drift. We need to disengage.
- Sean McBride
One doesn't need to be a clairvoyant or psychic to predict that Israel and Old Testament cultism could serve as the trigger for a global nuclear conflagration during the next few years. Millions of Old Testament cultists have been entirely forthright in agitating for such a scenario.
- Sean McBride
come on! we need open dialogue amongst all countries...enough division already! PEACE!!
- Susan Beebe
This all stems from "we don't negotiate with terrorists" - which was and is fine. But when you start labeling EVERYONE you don't like a terrorist all of a sudden you can't talk to ANYONE. We need to re-think it from start to finish.
- Brian Roy
Exactly, that's exactly right, Sean. People need to recognize that certain belief systems want nothing more than to destroy the world to complete their story. When those people are in power, life becomes very dangerous.
- Neal Jansons
Susan -- I share your vision and passion! :) Seriously, what is so difficult about sitting down and thrashing out differences among conflicting parties, nations, interests and groups? Talk it out, dialogue it out, engage in face-to-face discussions. Scream if you want, but, goddamit, engage.
- Sean McBride
Neal -- one of the deepest thoughts I've encountered recently: "certain belief systems want nothing more than to destroy the world to complete their story" -- beautifully stated, especially the "complete their story" phrase. Can you imagine the human race self-destructing because some people are locked in cement in a crazy narrative meme that requires Armageddon? They need to "complete...
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- Sean McBride
If you consider the theology, it makes sense. They are the "Peoples of the Book". Their system differs from others in that while the philosophical religions (Taoism, Buddhism, Jainism, etc) and the pagan religions past and present based their systems on an interaction with existence, Abrahamic religions have a system based on an interaction with a tale, a particular narrative, an abstraction that does not depend on any interaction with existence.
- Neal Jansons
They must adhere to the story, which has a beginning and an end. They thus must assert the beginning (despite all evidence), act in the present, and try to bring about the end.
- Neal Jansons
@Sean - I really don't fault the belief systems themselves. It is what happens when they become political. Unfortunately organized (by humans) religion is political by nature. Theocracy blended with nationalism is the recipe for never ending war.
- Brian Roy
Neal -- Abrahamic cults: the triumph of abstract ideology over empiricism and reality. Infants are controlled by their narratives. Adults control their narratives. Magical thinking vs. empirical/pragmatic thinking. When your magical thinking includes Armageddon as the deterministic climax, you are a menace to the rest of the human race.
- Sean McBride
Brian - I strongly believe that people should hold whatever belief systems they want, and say whatever they want, but when their belief systems compel them to seize authoritarian or totalitarian control of the political system, and to use that power to drive the world towards violent catastrophe, then, Houston, we have a problem. Then it is time to organize politically against them, and to oppose them in the strongest ways possible that are consistent with the democratic process.
- Sean McBride
It's funny how everyone says "It's not the belief systems". Why not? Explain to me how this set of statements about the nature of reality, time, morality, and destiny do not lead to beliefs that are dangerous? No one ever burned a library or systematically tortured people for Pan or Buddha. The premises lead to the conclusions, and the premises are themselves foul. Might as well say fascism as a theory isn't the problem, it's just when people who believe in fascism get into politics.
- Neal Jansons
Gregory - generally, "don't talk to the enemies crowds" are messianic cults that believe they enjoy a special status that separates them, raises them above, the rest of the human race. They often find themselves in intense conflict with the people they despise and refuse to engage with on an equal footing. "Unenlightened" and destructive don't even begin to cover it.
- Sean McBride
Neal - some belief systems are rotten at the root -- no doubt about it. Not all belief systems are created equal.
- Sean McBride
Neal - some people develop belief systems that are nothing but tools, instruments and weapons for preying on and plundering people outside the cult. Belief systems at their most destructive. They need to be called out and not treated with respect.
- Sean McBride
Israel has been running US foreign policy for last 8 yrs, they are nervous now.
- imran
Sean - I don't know, I try not to make claims about other people's motives, just what they do. They may well be sincere. I just don't care whether they are sincere. Any belief system, whether political, economic, or metaphysical, should be held responsible for the results of its ideas and their impact on people. I'm sure virii are sincerely hungry, as well.
- Neal Jansons
Neal - racist belief systems are often entirely explicit about expressing their hatred of other races and their intentions to plunder and exterminate them. The core values, motives and objectives are right out there in the open. Explicitly racist belief systems have played a major role in world history (and, not long ago, in Nazi Germany). With some destructive belief systems there is...
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- Sean McBride
Neal-- No one ever systematically tortured people in the name of Buddha? Dude, that's a little naive. Read up on Buddhist nationalism in Sri Lanka, which has led to violent attacks on Christians and Muslims, or Buddhist violence in Burma. Just as Christians don't live up to the peaceful precepts of Christ, there are many examples through history of Buddhists not living up to the precepts of Buddha, and using their cultural identity to ostracize and attack others.
- Chris Kenton
from twhirl
Chris- True enough, but I am saying the the actual teachings of the Abrahamic religions tell people to do these things. And as far as Jesus goes...sure, he said some nice stuff that should be obvious to anyone not in an ethical vacuum. But he also said some awful things. He was a racist (called the Canaanite woman and her daughter dogs and would not heal them until the woman acknowledge herself as a dog), he was brutal (Think not I come to bring peace but a sword), and the Hell mythos.
- Neal Jansons
Sean- I agree with all of that, but I hesitate to call the entire Abrahamic root cynical. There is a lot of heavy philosophical, mystical, and intellectual work there that seems pretty sincere.
- Neal Jansons
Neal - sorry if I gave the impression that the entire Abrahamic tradition is wrong-headed. It is also well-stocked with some of the most enlightened ideas ever generated by the human race. The trick is for adults to exercise their critical intelligence on the sprawling mass, and to separate the wheat from the chaff. Many streams in the Jewish, Christian and Muslim traditions have been embarked on that quest. Abrahamic fundamentalist cults do not speak for the Abrahamic (monotheistic) tradition as a whole.
- Sean McBride
Sean - Well said, and I definitely agree. However, there is the issue of identity politics. The people who are not the nutjobs still identify with the nutjobs enough to sway their opinions on many issues.
- Neal Jansons
Web 1.0 was about getting a page up. Web 2.0 was about adding interactivity and people to those pages. Web 3.0 will be about getting rid of the pages.
- Robert Scoble
Next up? The "Social Web" in which the walls come down, and a new open stack (OpenID, OAuth, Portable Contacts, XRDS-Simple, OpenSocial, microformats) enables seemless interoperability, with users in control.
- John McCrea
Smartass answer: Web 3.0. Real answer is about what Scoble said, 3.0 will be about the semantic web and bringing pieces together.
- AJ Kohn
I don't know Robert--they've been talking about getting rid of the pages since TechWeb '96. What was it then? Windows DNA?
- Chris Kenton
from twhirl
Chris: everything old is new again. :-)
- Robert Scoble
Another half-hearted 3.0 def. is when Brands get into the SN space in a real way. Call it 2.5. Whatever. Has a modicum of truthiness.
- Marko Bon
On the enterprise side, SEO and SFA both took root right after the DotCom bust. I've been placing my bet that the next big enterprise transformation will be social relations management--moving beyond social media monitoring and metrics. http://is.gd/3JdQ
- Chris Kenton
from twhirl
The final stage of development on the infrastructure side for the most part, and the fruition of the audience as users in that new environment.
- Patricia
The eradication of the fixed workplace and the complete disintermediation of information. Doing away with major networks, newspapers, magazines, web sites and, regarding mobility, really allowing people to do what they do wherever they want to do it, from a knowledge worker perspective, at least. Anticipate a number of 2+point releases prior to 3.0.
- Wilson Craig
I think it will be the advent of the truly "device-independent" web. No more separate sites for phones and computers. We'll see full location awareness, pages will be replaced with streaming, constantly updated personalized content (RSS/FriendFeed/Twitter combined and on steroids).
- Kenton
Follow-up. Microformats are a pre-cursor for how the semantic web will deliver information. See Operator: http://tinyurl.com/yuwac7
- AJ Kohn
Great Depression 2 = dislocation of large chunk of US workforce & turbo-charging of indie work-for-hire and affiliate mrktg workforces.
- Rob Sterling
" Cockroaches are infamous for their tenacity, and are often cited as the most likely survivors of a nuclear war. Some even claim that they can live without their heads. It turns out that these armchair exterminators (and their professional brethren) are right. Headless roaches are capable of living for weeks. To understand why cockroaches—and many other insects—can survive decapitation, it helps to understand why humans cannot, explains physiologist and biochemist Joseph Kunkel at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, who studies cockroach development. First off, decapitation in humans results in blood loss and a drop in blood pressure hampering transport of oxygen and nutrition to vital tissues. "You'd bleed to death," Kunkel notes. In addition, humans breathe through their mouth or nose and the brain controls that critical function, so breathing would stop. Moreover, the human body cannot eat without the head, ensuring a swift death from starvation should it survive the other ill effects of head loss
- Susan Beebe
from Bookmarklet
SUSAN! I just had a heart attack. That picture popped up when iTunes opened with the volume full blast and I didn't know and I jumped out of my chair!
- Trish R
Ahhhh.. I read the first paragraph and screamed!
- Daynah
Interesting graphic. Shelly Palmer had a piece yesterday on the chain from economic slowdown, to consumer buying behavior, to slowdown on technology innovation. Interesting post: http://is.gd/3ZDK
- Chris Kenton
from twhirl
The data used seems pretty arbitrary to me; I detect cherry-picking.
- Robert Hafer
I still argue someone should start a venture based on Identity Escrow. A secure 3rd party that accepts your name, age, and a credit card if you want, and in return provides a unique code that is your passport anywhere, so you no longer have to dish out private information and credit card numbers all over the Web. Web sites would only have your code, on top of which you could choose to...
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- Chris Kenton
from twhirl
Dennis, it's a rollercoaster! The market is still struggling to find its bottom. I think that a weekend off will be good for the market.
- Robert Scoble
The way things have gone, I wouldn't be getting too excited just yet. I feels like one blow after another.
- Greg Gannicott
Can you say "we don't know which way we really want to go"?
- Alex Scoble
Its a head fake. Better then any move Jordan or Pippin ever gave.
- Greg
No, it's profit-taking from the shorts, the drop will resume afterwards.
- Prolific Programmer
Don't take this the wrong way, Robert, but read the history of major market downturns. When there's this much volatility, we haven't hit bottom. Big meetings over the weekend, IMF, World Bank. If I were a betting man, I'd say Monday will gap down ugly. More volatility. A rally or two. But trending down until the volatility works itself out of the market.
- Chris Kenton
from twhirl
Anyone for a bet that this isn't the bottom? Look at the companies leading the charge and look at today's losers. Energy and Utilities down 4%
- Steven Cains
The volume of trades is staggering. 500m shares on Dow, 3 billion! shares on NASDAQ (that's almost 30 times normal volume for NASDAQ)...a lot of money is changing hands out there
- Alex Scoble
Chris: I am still predicting more downward pressure. We haven't seen earnings reports yet and I'm expecting them to be brutal.
- Robert Scoble
Wow, did Bush say the right thing for once?
- jcunwired
The market is bouncing up and down around break even point right now
- Alex Scoble
Jody: No. This was hours after his speech.
- Robert Scoble
And Robert, the market has already factored in a lot of the fallout from weak earnings in this mess.
- Alex Scoble
Now if it will just bounce up to where it was on Wednesday, we'll be getting somewhere.
- Jason Wehmhoener
It's wild too watch has come off a bit but holding up pretty well
- Trevor Cook
Yeah, Nasdaq is still up a little on the day. It's not bouncing around nearly as much.
- Alex Scoble
This volatility is incredible. Wall Street has absolutely no consensus on which direction it should be moving.
- Geoff Schultz
S&P 500 still hasn't made it into positive territory. The swing will continue until it does.
- jcunwired
You spoke too soon! It's back down again!
- LarchOye
from twhirl
Darn you, Scoble for being positive, let them have their misery! Bahahaha
- Mike Lewis
Alex: I'm hoping that's the case, but I don't think we have good enough visibility into what those earnings reports will be yet.
- Robert Scoble
Google is showing down just over 100 now.
- Alex Scoble
Google will show price changes for another 15-20 b/c of the lag behind the market.
- FFing Enigma (aka Tina)
Google switched over to real-time stock quotes a couple months ago.
- Brian Newman
It still lags behind the market a bit, Brian, I think because the trades on the Dow have to be entered in manually still. Now showing down by 112. NASDAQ still showing up by 4
- Alex Scoble
The disclaimer on finance.google.com says " Delayed at least 15 minutes unless otherwise indicated."
- FFing Enigma (aka Tina)
i think the catalyst for this upswing is termed "a three day weekend"
- Terence
* Real-time price data represents trades which execute on the NASDAQ and NYSE exchanges. Volume information, as well as price data for trades that don't execute on those exchanges, are consolidated and delayed by 15 minutes (NASDAQ), 20 minutes (NYSE). http://www.google.com/help...
- Brian Newman
Looks like it might have actually been an up day for my investments. Looks like Dow's final number was down 128.
- Alex Scoble
It was very cool. I bought into AAPL again at 91.86 at 9:30 this morning. Not too bad.
- Louis Gray
Yup, it's official. Dow down 128. NASDAQ up 4 and S&P down 10.
- Alex Scoble
what a roller coaster of a day for the DJIA!! Louis got a nice bargain on that apple share price!
- Susan Beebe
Is it possible to have financial whiplash?
- Steven Perez
Great day for the day-trader eh? ;-) Weeeeeee!!!
- Jesse Stay
Yes. Because customers are disappearing. My brother's bar's sales are down from $15,000 a week to $9,000 a week. His bar is worth far less today than it was a year ago.
- Robert Scoble
Some yes, most no. Apple lost almost 50% of its "value" yet are selling more products than ever. The Dow is a place to go gamble, not a place that reflects "value".
- Jeremy Toeman
@Robert: are Bush, Bernanke & Paulsen paying you to go help spread fear and doubt???
- Jeremy Toeman
Jeremy: Apple's stock was hammered in expectations of future sales results. Lots of people right now are hoarding. They can't afford a new iPhone or a new Macintosh. So, the expectation is that Apple will report bad numbers next time they report. If you think they won't, I'd buy Apple. Yes, it is a gamble, but then getting out of bed is a gamble. :-)
- Robert Scoble
Jeremy: you started hammering on me about this on Monday. The DOW has gone down almost 2,000 points since then. I am not a propogandist. If I see the world sucks and is going down, I'm going to say so, even though it pisses you off. When I see some reasons to be optimistic, I'll report those, too. My mood is switching, stay tuned. But to ask me if I'm bought off by Bush is just laughable and makes you look like a jerk. Which I know you are not.
- Robert Scoble
@Robert: I know, that's MY point! The company is no less valuable than it was before 6 weeks ago. Their stock value does not imply their ability to generate a profit. Of course it's a gamble, the Dow is just as "real" as my multi-billion dollar portfolio on hsx.com... except I can't make $0.01 off that unfortunately...
- Jeremy Toeman
Well, if projected profits based on consumtion fueled by bad loans inflated the stock market by 25%, then the current stock prices are more accurate.
- Jakop Dalunde
Jeremy: you're wrong. But that's OK. Let's get together in six months and see how profitable Apple is. When people are losing their jobs, not able to get personal credit loans anymore to buy gadgets, and are starting to compare Apple's new $800 netbook to ones that are $400 or less, we'll see how Apple's profits come out. I think they are headed for big troubles. You don't. It's a gamble. Let's see who is right. But to say I'm bought off by Bush and Paulson is just lame in this week where I have been right.
- Robert Scoble
Wouldn't you have to look at historical Profit/Loss Ratios to decide?
- Todd Hoff
Alex: wrong. Have you looked at sales? I have. You have not. These companies are worth less today than they were two months ago. Customers are disappearing from the market. That means companies are worth less. Geeesssh.
- Robert Scoble
todd: no. The market is pricing EXPECTED profit/loss ratios, not what happened four weeks ago.> The market has fundamentally changed. These companies are worth less today because CUSTOMERS HAVE LEFT THE BUILDING!!!
- Robert Scoble
You can never be right when talking about markets, but you can be wrong...this week you just aren't wrong. In a month no one will remember this, but we will remember the guys that caused this mess for a long time. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki...
- Alex Scoble
Robert: there's NOBODY OUT THERE saying "things are rosy", myself included. but, unlike many of us, you are PROACTIVELY telling people "we are in a death spiral" - not "I'm nervous" or "I think things are looking bleak" but a statement written as "FACT", "We are in a death spiral". You are then actively seeking conversations where you can share gloomy stories. So congratulations on "being right".
- Jeremy Toeman
Alex: everyone will remember this market in a month. Come on, please do be serious! Jeremy: it's funny that you all love it when I talk up your companies and am positive there, but when I see a major shitstorm and tell you that, you can't handle the truth. There's a reason that people listen to me when I say something is "cool." Cause I don't blow smoke up their ass like you're asking me to. This market is in total crisis. When it stops being that, I'll be first to tell you.
- Robert Scoble
Jeremy: since I started saying we're in a "death spiral" it's gone down almost 2,000 points. Yes, I am right and you were wrong to tell me to back off. When will you get that?
- Robert Scoble
This is one of the few times I have to agree completely with Robert (sorry Alex). The stock market is a measure of expected earnings or sales, and sales are going down and about to go down even harder across the board. I am working overtime at my job to make my payments that just jumped a couple hundred bucks and so are millions of others. I can promise you that any gadget I see is just window shopping atm.
- Aaron Krug
The reason I reported that is because I had visited Harvard and many businesses and I was reporting what I was hearing from my sources. This was all in FriendFeed, not on the front pages of the Wall Street Journal. Of course it was my opinion. Geesshhhh. You were wrong. Suck it up and admit that. This still has downward pressure on it.
- Robert Scoble
Robert, we will remember this market for a long time, but in a month no one (but you) will remember that you were weren't wrong about it's overall trajectory. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki...
- Alex Scoble
I would characterize it as a bad downward spiral. It is a spiral in that it spins around and sucks other aspects of the economy in with it. But I really hope it is NOT a death spiral because that implies that it will keep spinning down until the entire economy utterly crashes.
- David Muir
Aaron: that sounds reasonable. Certainly the market is starting to look interesting to investors again. I wouldn't be surprised to see it jump on Monday as investors catch their breaths and realize there are some good bargains to be had now. But I'm really worried about financial reporting that's coming up in a couple of weeks. I think that's where we'll test under 8,000. But I'm sensing the plane is pulling out of a death spiral, if only slightly.
- Robert Scoble
You tell 'em Rob! Part of the problem with this country is that Americans are so accustomed to being sugartalked everytime there's a problem that adversely impacts their lives, and then you get a global financial trainwreck like this market, and you tell 'em like it is, they can't handle the truth. +100 @Robert Scoble
- J. D. Ebberly
Robert: let us agree to disagree. You get to say "I'm right" a lot, and I get to try to help do something about it. Deal?
- Jeremy Toeman
Jeremy: you don't help anyone by blowing smoke up their behinds. You help people figure out how to navigate the truth, not trying to bend the truth. Do you see that yet?
- Robert Scoble
yeah, but you should ask the question the other way round: were companies really worth 25% more than they are now two weeks ago? Maybe we're seeing some reality here ...
- Ivan Pope
from twhirl
It depends on how you define worth. Most people that invest consider worth to be growth and income potential which help to increase the value of the stock, in which case, yes. If you define worth as strength, then no, many companies are still worth what they were. If you have money to invest in a bear market, buying strong companies all the way down might pay off nicely. But you have to consider how the market for the companies' products might change over that time and estimate how long the bear will be.
- ·[▪_▪]·
I'M NOT BLOWING SMOKE. Jesus dude, do I have to write "EVERYTHING SUCKS" *constantly*??? I have said, virtually EVERY TIME, that we are clearly in bad times. How can you fail to see that??? The ONLY difference between you and me is I am not out using my influence to OVERTLY STATE "We are in a death spiral", whereas you seem to feel its the 'truth' and must therefore be propagated. It's as if you are in defiance of the concept that fear begets more fear, and panic causes more panic.
- Jeremy Toeman
Panics cause people to think banks will fail. As a result, people tend to get nervous about their banks. As a result they withdraw money. As a result banks lose stability. As a result, people get more nervous. As a result, banks fail. Didn't you see Sneakers??? :)
- Jeremy Toeman
There's a difference between blowing smoke up people's asses (oh everything's fine), fear mongering (WE'RE IN A DEATHSPIRAL, RUN FOR THE HILLS!) and calm rationality (things are not looking good, and I don't see that changing for at least the next 6 months, but there is light at the end of the tunnel as this economy produces leaner and more efficient businesses that can take advantage of the inevitable upturn) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki...
- Alex Scoble
Robert, I worry about reporting as well, but I think the hits are going to keep on coming. We may pull out for a bit now, but we are shaping up for a seriously bleak holiday season, usually one of the biggest times for most companies (shoot, I help clients who ONLY advertise during the holiday season). When the 4th quarter results hit they are gonna hit hard, and I doubt very seriously we will have recovered from this initial hit by then, sending us further towards the bottom.
- Aaron Krug
Jeremy: the problem is you are asking me to be a propogandist and not report what I'm seeing. I'm seeing a death spiral. You keep asking me not to report what I'm seeing (like anyone really cares what I think anyway, if you think I'm having more than 1/10000000000 of an impact on markets I will say you are smoking crack). That is wrong. Sorry, dude, it is wrong. And for you to keep saying "stay calm and optimistic" is, well, wrong.
- Robert Scoble
Robert: no, i am NOT asking you to be a propagandist, I'm asking you to NOT be a panic-causer. That's all. I've given you case after case as to why it's bad. Others (+100 Alex!) have done the same. Yet we can't make progress. You seem utterly driven to spread fear. So I give up, I won't fight. You go ahead and do what you think is "right".
- Jeremy Toeman
The premise of this question could easily be reversed. Were companies two weeks ago really worth 25% more than they are today because of the Dow?
- Chris Kenton
from twhirl
Chris: in hindsight, no. But the market was different two weeks ago. There were more customers. Today the customers have disappeared. So, the market changed.
- Robert Scoble
Since several here told me to "stop being so doom and gloom" earlier this week (like my brother did) the market has gone down more than 1,000 points. Hey Jeremy, Alex, and Jesse, let me know what to do now. :-)
I think that when people stop telling me to be "cheerful" that we're near the bottom. Over the last week I've argued that we haven't yet faced our fears. We're getting closer, but I think the storm hasn't even arrived in Silicon Valley yet. Until it does there will be more downward pressure on the market.
- Robert Scoble
You should hang your head and survey the chaos you (yes, only you!) have caused with your incessant doom-mongering. Then do what TIna says.
- WorldofHiglet
I'm excited because I have good credit, am in need of a house, still making the same with a raise/promotion pending, stocks that will recover are getting cheaper, and I work for an optimization company. These are good times at the moment (for now anyway).
- xero
The 90s were bad and now is not fun, but the storm will pass, as it always does. And no, I don't really think it's your fault or that telling people it'll be bad is wrong. But I do think that there's Panic on the Street of London.
- WorldofHiglet
WorldofHiglet: hey, if only I had that much power. :-) I'm saving my alcohol for when I really need it. Right now I have too much work to do finding out what's going on in the economy and trying to bring innovative approaches to you.
- Robert Scoble
Keep covering your assets. If history is any guide, this isn't over. We'll see rallies, but we're also likely to see more drops like today through November.
- Chris Kenton
from twhirl
xero: let's see how you feel in six months. Right now I'm in the same boat as you. I'm doing very well. But it's all an illusion if my job evaporates.
- Robert Scoble
Oct 1929 crash didn't hit bottom until April 1932. feel better<g>?
- MikeAmundsen
And? What's your point? My point was that you saw no way out of this mess and that you said it wouldn't end (death spiral). It will end. It just will cause a lot of grief before it does. And yelling at the top of your voice "WE'RE DOOMED!" isn't really helping the situation. Take a deep breath, count to 10 and look at the good things in your life before you post another doom and gloom message.
- Alex Scoble
From Wikidpia about the great depression: "The snowball spiral The Great Depression was not a sudden total collapse. The stock market turned upward in early 1930, returning to early 1929 levels by April, though still almost 30 percent below the peak of September 1929.[6] Together, government and business actually spent more in the first half of 1930 than in the corresponding period of...
more...
- Johnny Worthington
In early 1930, credit was ample and available at low rates, but people were reluctant to add new debt by borrowing.[citation needed] By May 1930, auto sales had declined to below the levels of 1928. Prices in general began to decline, but wages held steady in 1930, then began to drop in 1931. Conditions were worst in farming areas, where commodity prices plunged, and in mining and...
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- Johnny Worthington
Wow - you're doing it all just for me? *sigh* I'm just so flattered I don't know what to say! :)
- WorldofHiglet
yeah i liked all the people pointing out that the individual day drops weren't nearly as bad percentage wise as in the past -- does it really matter if it happens in a day or in a week?
- MG Siegler
I think dance naked (again) in a world gone mad...
- thomasrdotorg
from twhirl
What did being doom and gloom get you? I mean, you don't want to be known as the Eeyore of the Internet ;) In all seriousness, some will panic, some will cry the sky is falling. It'll be difficult for a lot of people but we're part of a boom and bust economy. The bust is here ... the boom will return.
- AJ Kohn
Alex: when I say "death spiral" I mean that we're in a downward spiral for the forseeable future. I am not changing my approach. I believe we're going to see at least two quarters of really nasty financial results which will keep us headed in downward trend. I do not see how we're going to pull out of this and neither does anyone else who is in power that I'm talking to. And, yes, yelling DOES help people. You idiots were telling people to buy into this market. That was idiocy four days ago. It still is.
- Robert Scoble
Those people are the ones who are in denial. We are in a very bad time and things are just going to get worse.
- Mathew™ one of a kind
This market has a LOT more downward pressure to bear on it. We have NOT seen financial results from most publicly traded companies yet. When we do we're going to hear that it was a pretty bad quarter and that will push people's fears further down. We're getting closer to a bottom, though. Even in my deepest "doom and gloom" I never expected us to be headed to $8,000 this week. Wow.
- Robert Scoble
It's not idiocy to buy into this market, unless you think it won't go higher ever. In which case you might as well burn all your cash, because then we are all screwed. People should just use dollar cost averaging when they buy into the market. This crap will pass and if you aren't getting in while the getting is good, then you are missing a huge opportunity.
- Alex Scoble
AJ: what did it get me? My credibility because I didn't try to falsely blow smoke up your ass and try to get you to invest your money at $10,000 only to see the DOW go down to less than 9,000.
- Robert Scoble
While I like a good Scoble fight as much as the next guy... Listen folks; most of us have never seen this type of economy disruption in our lifetime. That's the scary part: we just don't know. We all have our opinions. Is it better to keep it to yourself or to warn others? Not for me to decide.
- MVB (Curmudgeon of FF)
Robert: I also happen to be one of the best people the company has, I survived two rounds of layoffs in my last company. But, all of that could change at any minute. Things happen. But I always think anything could happen at any minute so I try not to worry about it too much. Besides, you're never out of a job, just in-between employers or getting a much smaller paycheck for a while. Press is always needed.
- xero
Morgan: I have video of me speaking at Cisco. Valleywag is bullshit.
- Robert Scoble
Mark: the thing is I talk with about 50x more people than my brother does. And people in positions of power and who have visibility into what's going on. THAT is why I'm "doom and gloom" and continue to be.
- Robert Scoble
@Robert: Well I wasn't doing that either. Heck, it's bad business to tell anyone else where and when to invest. We're probably pretty close in our views of where the economy is going. It's our reaction to it which is different. Even in the best of times security is an illusion. You can lose your job, you can have medical problems. Trust me, I know. I'm a paranoid-optimist so it's easier for me now that the bad times are here.
- AJ Kohn
Alex: it's idiocy to buy into this market THIS WEEK. There is absolutely NO reason to do that. If people had listened to you they would have seen an additional destruction of 10% of their capital. Capital that most people might need to survive a long-term shitstorm, like what this is looking like. Personally, anyone who recommends buying THIS WEEK is an idiot. Park your money and wait for a little clarity.
- Robert Scoble
You might miss out on a few small gains, but there is still HUGE downside and downside momentum in this market. Anyone who recommends buying into this market should be treated like an idiot. Sorry. I should have been stronger about this on Monday than I was.
- Robert Scoble
Robert, if you need the money within 5 years you shouldn't have it in the market in the first place. But people should not be putting 401k money entirely in to cash, for instance. Particularly if their retirement horizon is greater than 10 years out.
- Alex Scoble
And investing out of fear won't get you anywhere either, but you are free to do whatever you want. I'm continuing to put my 401k and IRA money into the market because it does nothing for me sitting on the sidelines and the upside to this market is getting bigger every day. :)
- Alex Scoble
I decided I'm not going to worry about it. We are going into this whether we want to or not. I think it's up to everybody whether we recover or not. I'm going for that route. :) From now on I'm focusing on what to do to get through it
- Patricia
Tell us how you really feel Robert ;) Perhaps this week isn't but soon. The market is the lowest it's been in 5 years. If you have money and a long time horizon, there are buying opportunities in the near future. It's difficult to predict the bottom, so you can only hope to buy near the bottom. Those with a stomach for risk buy on the left side of the "U", those with less on the right side of the "U".
- AJ Kohn
Alex: I agree, but I would not be moving things out of cash right now. In fact, at this point, it's pretty hard to do much of anything. It's probably too late to get out of the market, so just stay in and ride. We'll be close to a buying decision in the next two quarters, but not this week.
- Robert Scoble
Robert: Then we agree. Like I said your choice. You have chosen to speak-out because you have a large audience and among those in your audience are people for whom you care, and you want them to do the correct thing. I get that. I also happen to agree that this isn't a "hiccup" and the DJI will be at 11000 next week. Were going into the 7000's and then start from scratch, maybe even lower.
- MVB (Curmudgeon of FF)
Alex: if you had put all your money in on Monday you would have lost another 10%. You have never changed your strategy. At some point I'll buy in, and when I do I'll have more capital to do that than you will. :-)
- Robert Scoble
Chris: no alcohol today. Too much to do. Gotta go get a tire fixed on my car. Sigh.
- Robert Scoble
I don't know. Web entertainment is cheap. Maybe our industry will see an uptick. Entertainment has been recession proof over the years from what I've heard and internet falls into that more than ever. :) There was just a study that more people would cancel cable before they'd cancel web. If the web stays busy, maybe $$ will stay with it.
- Patricia
I've never told anyone they should go "all in" in this market...Dollar Cost Averaging...say it with me now folks. And that's advice from Bob Brinker, not just me.
- Alex Scoble
Patricia: today I interviewed World Golf Tour, a free online golf game that's awesome. They are going to ride this out very well. People who can't afford to play real golf anymore will come here and play virtual golf. There WILL be winners in this market. But that's a topic for another FriendFeed post. Right now I want to beat up my brother a bit for being too optimistic too early. I think when he finally throws in the towel and decides things suck (downsizing wedding, for instance) that'll say BUY.
- Robert Scoble
Alex: dollar cost averaging works. But I'd be conservative and only put at risk capital you won't end up needing in eight months if your job goes away.
- Robert Scoble
I won't be downsizing the wedding regardless of what happens. Postpone, perhaps, but not downsize. And I just love how Robert is making this seem like such a huge debate. I never disagreed with him that the economy is in trouble and that the market is in the crapper. I disagreed with how he said it (use of the word deathspiral for instance). I also never told anyone to BUY into this market. Again say it with me people, DOLLAR COST AVERAGING!
- Alex Scoble
Alex: if the largest decline in the market EVER is not a "death spiral" I don't know what IS a death spiral. And we're still spiraling down. By the way, if you are in an airplane and you are in a death spiral, it doesn't mean you crash. It just means that right now you have no control and the ground is getting closer. I sure hope the pilot figures out a way to get control, but for now we're in a death spiral and anyone who says we're not is blowing smoke up my ass.
- Robert Scoble
8 months? You shouldn't be investing money you need in next 1 to 5 years! That's what the experts I read have been saying. Like I said you are agreeing with me in your very own strange way.
- Alex Scoble
This is awesome! I'm guessing Robert is the younger brother - am I right?
- James Hull
James: Alex is seven years younger than me. Alex: cool, glad we agree on something, but just above you said five years. One year is a lot closer to eight months than five years is.
- Robert Scoble
Yes, if your time horizon for needing liquid cash is 5 years or less that money should NOT be in the stock market. Period.
- Alex Scoble
Robert: stock up on guns and ammo. And MREs. And a bunker. [/not kidding]
- Steven Perez
Steven: I'm starting to agree with you. But building a bunker ain't possible where I live and due to my under water mortgage I can't move even if I wanted to. Guns? That's why I hired Rocky. :-)
- Robert Scoble
Live for today Robert, fear and panic are never productive. Continue to do what you do best, bring us the interesting people and stories in the industry. You might die tomorrow too but you don't seem to be too concerned about that.
- Kenton
Kenton: Every day is a blessing. During the last downturn a lady hit me and totalled my car. Worth remembering that tomorrow isn't guaranteed is cool. Oh, I was very productive today and I'm not in a total panic. Even if the world ends I can't control it. I'm just watching and adjusting and trying to learn and trying to keep up on the coming storm.
- Robert Scoble
I've got an alternative suggestion. Forget the stockmarket. Go to prosper.com and put money there right now. I'm earning an average of 11% right now, and it hasn't changed in months.... course I suppose even that could go into the tank if people massively lose their jobs, but at least its not at the whims of what stocks people want to buy from day to day
- Justin Long
Robert, just what I've been saying - you have no control over it so keep doing what you're doing. Stay optimistic, prepare, come up with a backup plan, and then live life to its fullest. Look at the good things in life. I have a fear of flying. The only way I get over it is by not paying attention to it - I have no control over the plane so it makes no sense for me to waste my energy worrying. All you can do is have a plan, prepare, and look at the bright side of things.
- Jesse Stay
And regarding buying into the market, history shows in several years we'll be back above where we are now. If you buy for the long-haul (which I've been saying), now's an excellent time to buy. No one knows where the bottom will be, we just know that stocks are *very* low right now, so there are some great deals out there.
- Jesse Stay
Lastly, if you're still afraid of the market - a 6 month CD in these markets is always a good bet.
- Jesse Stay
from twhirl
Keep your cash, stock up on food and get real folks...the economy sucks
- Susan Beebe
Open an account at the Bank of Sealy Posturepedic. They have good rates on their mattress stuffing cd's.
- Paul
from fftogo
@Robert if it had gone UP by 1000 points in that same time, would you be posting about the "Heaven Spiral" (or whatever)? Probably not. I'm not saying that *you* can't be fearful, gloomy, etc, but I am saying (again) that when Influential People yell "the sky is falling", it makes it fall faster. Go read about WHY this is all happening, the root is a lack of confidence in the system. The more people believe banks will fail, the more likely they will withdraw their money, then banks *do* fail.
- Jeremy Toeman
Francine: heheh, I will plead the fifth. :-)
- Robert Scoble
For that price I'd better be served my Diet Coke by one of the Pemberton family.
- Paul W. Swansen
Paul: and if you want to buy a smores kit they are $40 for a Hershey's chocolate bar, a few cookies, a few marshmallows, and a couple of wooden sticks. I usually get around these prices by bringing my own smores kits and drinks.
- Robert Scoble
AIG hosted a conference for 100 independent insurance agents; no executives were involved. They had paid a deposit of $402,000.00 several months ago, so they would have been out that much had they cancelled. IMHO, I'm not sure it makes business sense to cancel rewards for the people who do the best job selling your products.
- Glen Campbell, esq.
Please note that I'm not trying to defend AIG; there is more than enough evidence to convict them of mismanagement (see the Waxman committee website). In this case, however, I think people should know the facts before commenting. Unless you're uninterested in the facts, of course.
- Glen Campbell, esq.
Glen: good point. But that said, what a poor PR move on their part.
- Robert Scoble
Absolutely. But it would be horrible for their business if they cancelled their sales conference. I'd hate to be their PR person. No way to win with that one.
- Glen Campbell, esq.
Brandon: believe me, they are charging what the market will bear. Like Francine notes I know the prices because I pay those prices once in a while. If the prices start to come down, I'll let you know. Vegas has already started reducing its prices for hotel rooms and traffic is definitely down there.
- Robert Scoble
Do you have to pay for insults too or are they included in the bill?
- Larry Kless
from twhirl
thanks for the response Robert. (sorry my FF comments have been mysteriously disappearing all day)
- Brandon
If your PR agency owns your social media program, you're in trouble. The whole point of social media is the connection with your customer community. You can't outsource that to an agency and hope to establish customer intimacy by proxy. Agency's have a role in helping companies understand the social media landscape, but not engagement by proxy.
- Chris Kenton
from twhirl