tom matrullo

If the American auto industry is no longer a viable business enterprise, no amount of government financial aid is going to save it. It's over. They blew it a decade or two ago. - Sean McBride

Except if they did the right thing and started making green cars. The only reason they didn't was to appease Dubya's oil barron bosses (that is, if you believe Bush's entire presidency was pwned by the oil industry). - V for Veselka

I'd rather this bailout not happen, but at a minimum the government shouldn't just give the auto industry money for "business as usual", which is clearly a failing model. Just as they changed the rules of the financial bailout to spur institutions to resume lending, if the auto industry wants our money, they need to give something back in return. We can start with accepting higher CAFE standards and add elimination of the tax breaks for large vehicles (like huge SUVs) that are falsely classified as "agricultural" vehicles. Ideally, there'd be some mandate that a meaningful percentage (5-10%?) of every company's model line will run on non-fossil fuels by 2012. That's eminently doable. The gov't has the leverage right now to make a backward ass, hidebound industry move forward and they should use it. - Kevin Pedraja

+1 Kevin - todd

Propping up these dinosaurs is the worst thing we could do for our economy in the long term. - Chuck LeDuc Díaz

+100 Chuck - V for Veselka

This is not a black and white issue. The auto industry was quickly retooled to make tanks and aircraft for WWII. Without an industrial base America is extremely vulnerable. Secondly, these are jobs and taxpayers and productive citizens, without the industry, we have a few million more unemployed. - Phil Boiarski

If you want to pump billions of taxpayer dollars into the auto industry, don't subsidize Hummers and Corvettes and inferior fit-and-finish sedans. Give it to the people innovating and working aggressively to reduce dependence on foreign oil. Help them start scaling up quickly so they can take over the responsibility of supporting the component and subsystem suppliers. Some candidates: http://venturebeat.com/2008/01... - Ken Sheppardson

We're actually doing a pretty good job of making tanks and aircraft right now. - Chris White

Phil, thanks for making sense. The people who think we could turn away and let the auto industry fail are, for lack of a better word, wrong. You wouldn't want to live in the US after that happened. The aftershocks would take down the entire economy. - Dave Winer

Bravo Phil, a more cogent argument for a socialist industrial economy hasn't been made since Leonid Brezhnev. And for the record, I'm a communist. - Chuck LeDuc Díaz

These bailouts, every one of them, simply enforces incompetence and stupidity in business. If the weak ones fail, the industries become stronger. Specifically to the auto industry, wouldn't the suppliers stay in business making parts for other companies? Wouldn't the other auto companies need to increase production/distribution? - Mark VandenBerg

Mark: Unfortunately one of the issues is the auto industry has excess capacity. We just don't need as many vehicles as the industry can produce each year. - Ken Sheppardson

No doubt a bailout will be bad for the country, but a failure would be worse. Do you think your pride could handle selling them to the Chinese or Japanese? If they would buy them (a big if). Those people have to work, and Detroit still sells half the cars in the US and there are lots more people who work for companies that depend on them. Figure out how to wind them down over 20 years, and let's do it, but we can't handle the shock of an immediate failure. Not when the cost of propping them up is so small. - Dave Winer

Some auto industry experts say the outside risk is 40,000 jobs. It's not like the entire auto parts, services, sales and auxiliary elements will just go away while everyone takes to riding bikes. - tom matrullo

+1 Kevin and Dave. The auto industry is vital to the American economy. Period. There should be conditions for the investment, but the industry as such is just too important to fail. If auto makers fail, I want it to be because there's a viable industry or other manufacturers around to replace them. A sudden failure would be devastating. - steplow = Steve Lowe

Dave Winer: on what grounds do you believe the bailout will work? What is the track record of the people who brought the American auto industry to this pass? - Sean McBride

Bailout or no bailout these rotting carcasses of companies will fail. - Brian Sullivan

It is a strange belief indeed that the government can save an industry which can't save itself. Is Barack Obama smarter about running the auto industry than the current management? - Sean McBride

I just keep returning to "creative destruction" that free market folks *used* to chant as a mantra. If there is any worth there, some other company can purchase it, and if not, let it fail. And I'm incensed as a taxpayer that I could end up propping up a crappy business that I wouldn't even by a product from! - Jason Kaneshiro

The bailout won't work -- it won't make our auto industry work. But... None of the auto companies are selling cars now, not the Japanese or Koreans or Europeans. No one is buying so no one is selling. Do you want to have an auto industry if the economy comes back? Or do you just want to give up? The other countries aren't going to let theirs go under, because its suicidal for them to. We won't either Sean. We're not stupid (at least not that stupid). - Dave Winer

Exactly, Brian. They all are beholden to the UAW which has bled them dry, while producing substandard products under the protectionism of tariffs. Why prolong the inevitable? The only problem I see is funding the pensions/healthcare for the retirees. Maybe that's where the 'bailout' money should go. - Mark VandenBerg

Ahhh, the UAW comes into it now. And that's why I said yesterday we need to invest in the Republican Party -- because the Democrats can't not bail out the unions. So four years from now the Republicans may well win the White House because someone has to tell the unions the bad news. Or maybe Obama will. That's his most turdlike shit sandwich. - Dave Winer

For those in favor of bailouts, what companies would you not bailout? - Chris White

So Dave -- you are arguing for a bailout that you claim won't work -- and you think that is not stupid? - Brian Sullivan

It's not a bailout, it's a loan with interest that the industry has a spotless record of paying back - Erin Kotecki Vest

How can the American auto industry pay back the loan, when it doesn't seem to be able to make products that people want to buy? That's how it got into this mess in the first place. - Sean McBride

The only possible way that this can work is for the US government to ban all auto imports immediately and put severe restrictions on "foreign" companies manufacturing in the US forcing Americans to choose between no new cars/trucks and inferior products (even then they might choose not to buy) - Brian Sullivan

I'm not arguing for anything -- you guys don't make the decision, we're just kibitzing here. The discussion here has absolutely no consequence. As soon as I'm arguing for things that becomes work. :-) - Dave Winer

Dave -- I admire your boldness in staking out a strong position on this issue. :) I also think it will be a nightmare if the American auto industry collapses. I'm just not convinced that the government can save it at this point. It has been making bad decisions for several decades now. - Sean McBride

Sean I'm absolutely sure the government will prop up the auto industry. It's not that I want it, it's just that it's so obviously going to happen. Just as I'm absolutely sure that we'll still have troops in Iraq at the end of 2009 (another hot potato/no win/shit sandwich). - Dave Winer

Dave -- your predictions are probably correct -- I'd bet on it. - Sean McBride

I suspect we're already in the "catastrophe" stage unfortunately. - Dion Hinchcliffe

LINK! :) - Andrew

not sure on the link. I heard it on CNBC. I'm sure there's a story out there somewhere on it though. - Thomas Hawk

I really hope the Obamas invite George Clinton at some point. Really. - Bob M. Montgomery via twhirl

I wish Obama would drop by the VP's office and ask 'So Cheney, what's in the safe?' - Kevin Fox

Watching on MSNBC right now... - ♫ Rahsheen™

Heard about this on the way home. Apparently Barbara is going to show Mrs Obama around the "living areas". So tell me Americans while the ladies are discussing curtains and wallpapers is it just the husbands who discuss the "economy and Iraq" or are there teams of advisors/commentators going to talk about all the important stuff while the President and President Elect talk about more day to day stuff? - Rob Brammeld

Bush and Obama can watch the Three Stooges together! ;-) - Igor The Troll

CNBC showing video of Obama and Bush walking down a hallway to the Oval Office now. - Thomas Hawk

Will there be high-fives in the Lincoln bedroom between the Obamas? ;) - abacab

@abacab LOL. I'd love to see Obama dive onto the bed :) - Flippity

I'm not sure that traditional newspapers can survive on online income alone. And I don't see a viable financial model for traditional hardcopy newspapers. I wouldn't be too surprised if both industries go buh-bye. - Sean McBride

One cannot overstate just how dim-witted American automotive companies have been during the last decade or two. They failed to compete effectively against Japan and Korea, and they ignored the need to develop new technologies that are not petroleum-based. I've been predicting their demise for years now. - Sean McBride

I hope not. It's one of my biggest wishes to help print media make the digital move. Part of the problem is that they're such large companies and many make foolish moves, hire the wrong kind of people, etc. to do it. Blind leading the blind. One of the initiatives I would love to see Obama's tech campaign take on is better adoption and adaption to the new platform (the internet). The sooner we do, the better our economy will be. - Patricia

Patricia - traditional newspapers may be too slow, lumbering and entrenched to make it over the hump in competing with news and opinion services which started on the Web from scratch. I still follow the New York Times Technology and Science sections as feeds, but not much else in the way of traditional mainstream newspaper sources. (I used to read five hardcopy newspapers a day more than a decade ago, before the Internet took the world by storm.) - Sean McBride

@Sean, I know. It breaks my heart. I grew up with my nose in the newspaper. It's a type of journalism and window to the world that blogs regardless of size have never been able to duplicate - they simply don't have the money. We'll lose tons if we see their demise. What I do think though is that larger ones like the Times can make the move to digital well - if they're smart. Sadly, local news and smaller papers may struggle, but their audiences may also be among the last to adapt/adopt to digital anyhow. - Patricia

Patricia - sometimes I can't believe the magnitude of the information revolution we've lived through in such a brief time. It almost seems like a dream or a hallucination. I can't say that I've come close to digesting it. - Sean McBride

Regarding newspapers: how do they deal with the Craigslist challenge? How do they survive when their advertising revenues are disappearing? - Sean McBride

Sean, totally agree. What's so sad is that many focus on such a small, small part - failing to see the great migration to an exciting new communications platform that is truly happening. The internet is not here so people can have facebook. It's here to replace or modify ALL existing information/communications infrastructures - and how it works is truly amazing. Yet, nobody pays attention to this - and therefore, it will tear down models and hurt economies instead until we do. It'll always, always do what it is intended to do regardless. How we adapt is up to us. - Patricia

Regarding the newspapers surviving - the internet is nothing more than a new platform. Many industries like media and TV have not had to "migrate" an audience to a new platform in 40+ years. The approach has to be with the understanding that the internet IS here to replace or modify old platforms. it is not here for any other reason. Retail saw it, and mastered it - and thrived. Some losses came, but minimal in comparison to music. Music refuses to accept the platform, and now, it's losing. Print is the same. TV is faring well, but the disruption of it's market is only starting. it is coming solid out of the gate. To answer your question, newspapers shouldn't look at CL because it's just classifieds. it should look at the larger picture: it's platform is dying and it needs - deeply - to accept the new one that is emerging. - Patricia

Patricia - my view of the Internet is that it is radically revolutionizing and restructuring human civilization as a whole. We ain't seen nothing yet -- the process is still in its infancy. Global group intelligence in real time may lead to a rapidly self-evolving global superintelligence. Lord knows the full implications with that scenario. Science fiction writers can speculate. - Sean McBride

The immediate business implication: Google may become the most powerful company in the world. - Sean McBride

I agree. It's scary! It goes so far beyond the immediate. That is why it pangs me that again and again, tech voices are fixated on small corners when there are so many larger elements that will truly affect people. Google is in an outstanding position of power, and is well connected with the right powerful people. - Patricia

If you're looking at the small corners exclusively, you are definitely going to be rolled over by the tidal wave. :) The genius of Sergey Brin and Larry Page is that they have been able to see the big picture with unwavering concentration. They are mowing down the competition. And if I understand Larry Page correctly, they are just getting going. - Sean McBride

Yep. The future of the web is NOT Mark Zuckerberg, facebook, social media, etc. It's just a snapshot of the current times, and possibly a look at the future. But far larger and more important is the bigger picture. Last year, a telecom company and an internet company competed for the first time. Epic. Yet nobody in web 2.0 even noticed. - Patricia

From my view, the future of the net lies in the convergence of artificial intelligence, cloud computing, data mining, machine translation, natural langage processing, recommender systems, Semantic Web, social media, text mining and related research fronts. What do you get when you pull all these technologies together? A global superintelligence. A grandiose-sounding phrase, I know, but it may become real. Some folks refer to this meme as the Singularity. See Ray Kurzweil and Kevin Kelly. - Sean McBride

I love it, Sean. Brilliant. I see it as a device agnostic, fault resistent, less expensive, more efficent communications infrastructure that will enable TV to work during a natural disaster and communications abilities in even the poorest of nations. What sits on top of that is like the windows and doors on a house. The web of the future will be very different - and very similar - to what we know and use now. - Patricia

Sean, you've just described SkyNet! - Peter Simard

Peter - then perhaps we'd better figure out ways to keep it under control before it takes control of us. :) - Sean McBride

not sure about the entire American automotive industry, but GM is predicted to go bust by 2010 if there is no capital injection from gov. (posted a news article on this yest.) dont think newspaper industry will disappear anywhere including America. Alternative news sites, blogs and other online and social media are not and will not turn mainstream before yet another generation, entirely bred on the Internet, becomes adult. - Hayk

the bastards have already guzzled 25 billion. take some more, it'll only push down your funeral date a few months. - ♣genieyclo♣

let them die, it is natural, like trees in the forest ... jobs issue and political fallout will adjust in the same natural manner - Gregory Lent

Yes on newspapers in 10-15 Years. No to automobiles... they only change their fueling. - Ryo

@Gregory, I think for newspapers, they don't have to die. They just need to evolve, and I think we should help them! - Patricia

Ryo - automobiles will survive, using new sources of energy. The current American automobile industry is another matter -- it grew fat and stupid and lost the ability to innovate and compete with foreign manufacturers. - Sean McBride

I think both US auto and newspaper companies will survive - just not in current form. Both need to evolve. - Mike Reynolds

I think both industries could disappear. I feel comfortable imagining the unimaginable. Radical and unbelievable dislocations happen on a fairly regular basis. The numbers are not adding up for the surivival of these industries. - Sean McBride

Who two years ago could have imagined the collapse of the investment banking industry in 2008. - Sean McBride

I think there will be a lot more nonprofit and subsidized journalism (see for example Pro Publica: http://www.propublica.org/). As for U.S. auto manufacturers, General Motors and Ford alone account for over 500,000 employees. Add in suppliers and other businesses dependent on the auto manufacturers - I can't see a politician risking a "U.S. to GM: Drop Dead" headline. - Steven Kaye

Pics! - Spencer

Interesting - isn't it true that a majority of Asians (a majority of the world in fact) is lactose intolerant? - Brian Sullivan

A majority of Chinese are lactose intolerant and most don't even know it. Milk is for cows. Period. - Carolyn Chan

take your time: there's four or five thousand years more historical development there. - tom matrullo

I didn't bring my camera, but it looked pretty much like the American one. Brian, don't know. - Robert Scoble

Are you loving China? Isn't is fascinating! - Francine Hardaway

Brian: I don't know if the ice cream had melamine in it, but I doubt it. - Robert Scoble

please tell me you have video of chinese kids juggling ice cream in cold stone creamery... - Chris Hollander

wikipedia "The frequency of decreased lactase activity ranges from nearly 5% in northern Europe to more than 90% in some Asian and African countries" - Stowe Boyd

Chris, sorry, I didn't bring my camera equipment to dinner. - Robert Scoble

Are you/did you get jetlag? The Chinese love touristy things like Cold Stones as much as anyone. I had the same Melamine thought Brian did too! Also, I hear raw vegetables are pretty much out, as in some places they fertilize with human waste.Other then that though, I would love to try all the great food I'm sure you'll get to see. - Will Higgins

Robert. I was in Shanghai in September. I had my mind blown away by the number of myths I held that were destroyed as a result. If you get a chance make sure you go to Hangzhou for a walk. - Jon-Paul Bussoli

Carolyn -- my understanding is that most of northern European descent (and descendants of a few other herding peoples around the world) are lactose tolerant as adults. Most infants everywhere are also lactose tolerant to age 4 as well. The cheese/milk related diets around the world came to prominence because of the imperialism of northern Europeans. - Brian Sullivan

The food in Shanghai is too sweet for me. - Jauder Ho

Oh, and here's a good sign of what's different in China. http://bit.ly/j64K - Jauder Ho

@Scoobie, this is a more profound comment than ANYTHING you said about politics. It also happens to be true. China rocks. Stick to your knitting. - Morgan Warstler

Will: I have had very little jet lag. Gregory: we talked at length about melamine tonight. If you eat at Western Restaurants most of their ingredients have been imported, so risk is low. Of course, if I drop dead in a week you know the truth. :-) - Robert Scoble

Morgan: hey, I predicted the political outcome quite accurately long before it happened and made $200 as a result. Politics and tech are pretty intertwined, so you'll hear more, although I'll try to keep it down to a minimum. I'm pretty tired of talking about politics. Oh, except, EVERYONE I meet here is an Obama fan, which is driving my producer batty because he supported McCain. I think it's quite funny. - Robert Scoble

Robert: don't be a wuss, eat out - the best places to eat are the local shops, especially the dirty ones'. Go eat of the street food. - clarke thomas

clarke: I will, although Rocky isn't into it. Last time I was here I got very sick at a Microsoft dinner, so there! (then I went to work for them which got back at them, I'm sure! Heheh). - Robert Scoble

What's up with everyone thinking China is all filthy and crap, Robert who's been there says that it's pretty much the same here and there..dunno why some people can't except that. - ♣genieyclo♣

genieyclo: the myth is partially correct. You need to be careful of where you eat here and avoid some foods. So far so good. - Robert Scoble

Don't get sick Robert! - ♣genieyclo♣

@robert, not even a cameraphone? you've changed... its like i don't even *know* you anymore!?!?! - Chris Hollander

Chris: my cameraphone has a dead battery. I forgot my other camera, sorry. - Robert Scoble

i can confirm Robert has very little jet lag. he only knocked out for a little while in the cab yesterday. heh. it's a ton of fun having him and Rocky in China. - Christine Lu

How many people have you seen that are overweight? I guess not many. That'll be a big difference between the countries. - Toby Graham

Toby: not many overweight people are here, but more than last time. The country is getting wealthier and is importing more western eating habits. The kids are overweight here, too, albeit not at same rates as US ones. - Robert Scoble

genieyclo: You do have to be careful. In places like China or Mexico, locals have built up immunities to bacteria that you may not necessarily have. So no street food unless you want to chance being very very sick. - Jauder Ho

My friend from Beijing always cautioned when eating in China, "don't eat any meat without a back bone in it." hmmm - Susan Beebe

if you tip them will they sing like in the U.S. stores? - Randy Ksar via twhirl

Looking more and more like Larry Summers for Treasury Secretary. I never thought Rubin had a chance anyways. Being on the Board of Citibank in one of the worst financial meltdowns and authorizing the pay packages that he did prior to the meltdown tainted Rubin in my opinion. - Thomas Hawk

@Thomas: Agreed that Rubin was a long shot. It's unfortunate though, the guy *is* very smart (having met him on one occasion and hearing from friends in D.C. who interfaced with him a number of times.) - AJ Kohn

Rubin is indeed smart and probably would have been one of the best people for the job. Unfortunately though, I think both his previous affiliation with Goldman Sachs and certainly his seat on Citibank's Board of Directors would have made an appointment politically unlikely. It would be interesting to see what might happen if Buffet were asked. A very dark horse candidate out there and someone who previously has said he doesn't want to work in politics, but could he turn something like that down. - Thomas Hawk

We didn't start the fire. It was always burning since the world's been turning... - Robert Haas

i don't think they are done in, it is still a symbol for a kind of mind that exists, a type ... would like to see some third party action .. polarity has to yield to a kind of multiplicity, messy i know, but so is this - Gregory Lent

Hubris. - Chris Baskind

Katrina. That was their The End moment. - Bora Zivkovic

You'd think that the repeated record-setting fundraising by Ron Paul would have created a 3rd party movement. Not so much, though. Sad. - Robert Fischer

I agree with Bora. Katrina was the beginning of the end for the Republican party. - Jeff Jones

Katrina woke people up. But, really, it was the way they governed. I will never forget my President coming to town in 2006, telling a big campaign crowd that voting for the Democrats would give aid and comfort to our nation's enemies. Vile, fascistic, and un-American. A dark chapter in our nation's recent history. - Chris Baskind

http://img.dailymail.co.uk/i/p... - grant

@Chris +1 -- The Rove strategy of hate-mongering and Dixiecrat-pandering is really what killed the Republican party. Exponentially increasing the size of the government hasn't helped. The small government/states rights, socially liberal (insofar as gov't is concerned) people like me no longer are at home in the GOP. - Robert Fischer

Robert Fischer - I agree with all your points, and Grant: "Mission Accomplished" should definitely be added to the list, along with Hurricane Katrina (thanks, Bora). - Sean McBride

Thinking about all the factors -- arguably Karl Rove and his hate-mongering methods bear primary responsibility for the ruination of the Republican Party. He has been the lead Republican strategist for the last eight years. (But even higher powers have been providing his paycheck.) - Sean McBride

it was both parties, pelosi rolled over and so did the dems .. it is us - Gregory Lent

A preference for ignorant force over informed action combined with absolute contempt for the people they were pretending to serve. - tom matrullo

The Republican party relies on a core block of hard line bigots - homophobes, xenophobes, racists - whose numbers have been waning for the last three decades. American society is becoming more pluralistic, and their response has been to ratchet up the "Real America"-ism, which alienates the larger majority of minorities. - Eric P

Extremists have driven moderates out of the party, which means that there are now no brakes on the extremists. That's a recipe for self-destruction. The GOP has become the party of Armageddonists, secessionists and Sarah Palin groupies. The smart folk have departed and will not look back. - Sean McBride

absolutely, Sean - that's why I'm thinking there'll be a new party before it's all over. - Anthony Citrano

I've met her. She's as partisan as I am - Erin Kotecki Vest

Her husband's with the local RNC, no? - Helen Sventitsky

Exactly. - Lindsay Donaghe

This is the main reason why I cannot vote Republican. All this Religious BS needs to be a peronsal matter and not be made a qualifier for a Presidential candidate. - PC Easy via twhirl

This is the price we pay for making education a luxury item. Idiots get in power, mismanage the economy and we all lose. If we don't deal with the education problem we will be perpetually hamstrung by a dumbed down media feeding simple soiutions to credulous people at a desperate cost to us all. - arasmus

Hit it, Hitch, and hit it hard. Sounds like the old smart Hitch before 9/11 drove him off the rails and into the camp of the neocons. - Sean McBride

"A Nation’s best defense is an educated citizenry" -- Thomas Jefferson - ĎÚβĨŐÚŚ Dod