According to Yahoo! analysts are expecting a .05 per share lose on revenue of 48.6 Million. For guidance they are expecting a 2 cent lose with revenue at 47.4 million in Q2. You can use the following link to listen in live to the call. http://investor.tivo.com/phoenix...
- Davis Freeberg
Seeking Alpha has the complete transcript from last quarter's call. Questions that I'm hoping we'll see answered are 1.) What needs to happen to create stand alone growth 2.) when does the mythical Comcast/TiVo DVR rollout, 3.) When can we expect to hear a final ruling on Dish and is there any price that TiVo will settle or is enforcing the IP too valuable? 4.) Any updates on international expansion? http://seekingalpha.com/article...
- Davis Freeberg
From the earnings announcement it looks like some of my questions are already being answered (sort of). They will be launching TiVo/Comcast in New England over the summer, but still won't commit to a nationwide rollout.
- Davis Freeberg
"Comcast will soon present its customers with the option to use the TiVo HD retail box as an alternative to a digital adapter provided by Comcast, with details to be announced soon." - Not sure what to make of this. It could help solve their stand alone growth issues if you count them as stand alone sales.
- Davis Freeberg
"TiVo subscribers have downloaded approximately 50 million pieces of TiVoCast" - This is an amazing stat at the Streaming East conference TiVo said that they had approximately 900K boxes hooked up to broadband. This would suggest that the avg TiVoCast user has downloaded 55 programs each.
- Davis Freeberg
Comcast deciding to offer TiVo as it's primary Tru-way DVR is a huge statement on how innovative TiVo really is
- Davis Freeberg
The 8-K has more juicy details . . . "As of April 30, 2009 our total subscriptions were approximately 3.2 million. TiVo-Owned subscription gross additions were 37,000 for the quarter, compared to 48,000 in the first quarter fiscal year 2009. TiVo-Owned net subscription losses were 30,000 compared to 17,000 in the first quarter of fiscal year 2009. Our monthly churn rate increased to 1.4% for the quarter ended April 30, 2009 as compared to 1.3% in the year ago period, but improved as the quarter progressed. The installed base of MSO/Broadcasters’ TiVo subscriptions has declined to approximately 1.6 million from 2.1 million a year ago." http://www.sec.gov/Archive...
- Davis Freeberg
For the first time since April 2005, TiVo now has more stand alone subscribers than MSO customers.
- Davis Freeberg
ARPU for stand alone customers this qtr. came in at $7.65. This is down from $8.20 a year ago. ARPU for MSO customers came in at 0.93 per sub compared to .89 a year earlier. I'd really like to see TiVo somehow close the distance between this gap.
- Davis Freeberg
Looks like the dreamy Erica Ogg at Cnet is also tuning in and doing updates. She says the quarter's a disappointment, but I'm not sure that I agree. Will have to hear the call first. http://news.cnet.com/8301-10...
- Davis Freeberg
The market has traded more shares above their close then below in the after market. We'll see if that changes after the call.
- Davis Freeberg
The call is finally starting, they're going through the legal mumbo jumbo about how we can't sue them if they are wrong.
- Davis Freeberg
Tom Rogers says the 1st quarter was "solid". Points out $200 million in cash.
- Davis Freeberg
expect a ruling on Echostar "very soon"
- Davis Freeberg
TiVo continues to fortify their position as a one stop shop for an advanced TV service. Would be nice to hear the actual financials on the ratings data.
- Davis Freeberg
TiVo will be the only DVR offered by Comcast, that sounds pretty big to me.
- Davis Freeberg
Blockbuster will be adding their content to TiVo "later this year" (assuming their still in business of course) Blockbuster will also be selling TiVo DVRs. Should be good for TiVo, but won't help people rent more DVDs.
- Davis Freeberg
the only third party DVR? I wasn't on the call i'm just reading the recap trying to figure out what they meant there.
- Richard Lawler
I'm not exactly sure, I want to go back and see the transcript. He phrased it carefully and mentioned a new tru-way market, so hard to know what it means.
- Davis Freeberg
Rogers is stressing their work with Hollywood towards making advertising more effective. This is always a hot button issue for bloggers, but I'm all for more couch commerce.
- Davis Freeberg
The new retail marketing with Blockbuster is good, but they also lost Circuit City and other retailers as partners over the last year.
- Davis Freeberg
Revenue was increased because of "mass market deployment" with Comcast, that has to be a good sign that something is coming.
- Davis Freeberg
Without the stock based compensation TiVo would have been profitable. That should be good for their cash flow, but their marketing numbers are way down.
- Davis Freeberg
$215 million in cash and equivalents. Forget who should acquire TiVo, the real question is who should TiVo acquire. My vote is for Friend Feed.
- Davis Freeberg
Stand alone ARPU fell primarily because lifetime TiVo customers use the DVR a lot longer than 5 years.
- Davis Freeberg
Sounds like DirecTV isn't going to be coming out in the next couple of months. That would probably leave the start of the Fall TV season for their rollout.
- Davis Freeberg
Analyst says most of us thought we'd get a ruling by late May, looking for details on the delay? - Rogers is skating around the questions, Basically says it's out of their hands and expect in a near time frame they'll get a ruling.
- Davis Freeberg
Tony Wible is congratulating them on the qtr.
- Davis Freeberg
Beware the rise of the independent cable companies. TiVo is encouraged by small and medium sized cable operators being interested in offering their DVR. They've signed up one customers, more to come. Great for operators who can't invest in Tru-Way.
- Davis Freeberg
They're going true two-way further down the road. We'll be the "primary" DVR. The "only" DVR that they'd market to customers.- Sounds like it would start w/ a test market and then hopefully rollout.
- Davis Freeberg
lolz - one of the analysts had them on speaker phone. - wants to know how they are spending their R&D money.
- Davis Freeberg
We are in a period right now where TiVo distribution is challenging and just putting into place relationships that can take the marketing burden.
- Davis Freeberg
"There has been a shift in R&D to some of our non-retail elements of our product." - More software improvements?
- Davis Freeberg
During tough time in economy, TiVo's churn remained constant. Most subscriber based companies would kill to have churn that low.
- Davis Freeberg
Cox rollout still hasn't changed. Trials continue, 1st availability to consumers is in the 2 - 3 month time frame.
- Davis Freeberg
Analyst is asking whether or not TiVo stopwatch is doing anything. Rogers is avoiding having to talk about it by saying it's still not material. Sounds like they are crushing Neilsen.
- Davis Freeberg
Sounds like they are having somekind of stopwatch rollout in the summer for local markets.
- Davis Freeberg
People who already have a DVR will continue to use Comcast basic service, but going forward they would only offer TiVo. This will add a lot of subscriber grwth when it rolls out. I could even see Comcast offering a free TiVo upgrade to keep customers from churning.
- Davis Freeberg
TiVo is talking to small cable companies to get data that Neilsen can't
- Davis Freeberg
Online sales of DVR are stable. Represent 1/3rd of sales which is what it's been historically.
- Davis Freeberg
Ugh, "early next year DirectTV will be available" :( Economics of new arrangement will be higher
- Davis Freeberg
Analyst trying to get a sense of how much TiVo gets paid from cable operators.
- Davis Freeberg
Feedback from independent cable companies was that the lack of VOD made it difficult for them to market to their subscribers. Just another friendly reminder for how Cable Labs has frozen out competitions in the DVR market.
- Davis Freeberg
Rogers is discusing a conspiracy theory. Cable has sown the impression that there isn't a difference between TiVo and a DVR. He's probably right, but I tend to be a sucker for these theories.
- Davis Freeberg
The call just ended. Thanks everybody for tuning in.
- Davis Freeberg