Robert Scoble

So, argue with me. Why are we NOT in a downward spiral that there is no end in sight to? - Robert Scoble

“Guess the way to think about it is we took everything we saved the last few years and instead of putting it into things that grow and make other things (like technology, better food, etc), we put it into something we didn’t need more of: a bunch of tract homes in Antioch. And those don’t give anything back. It was all well intended and set up for about 10 years — lets give homeownership to more people — make it easier, but like most good govt intentions it backfires. Now we’ve got a blackout and a lot of spoiled food to clean out and repurchase. Let’s say the good news is regular people wll be able to afford to buy a house for real this time. No mortgage = you are a queen.” - Mona N.

via my 'smartest' friend (Stanford econ grad with an MBA from Wharton) He lives in Manhattan and is employed by one of the biggest investment and securities firms. He's also appeared a few times on MSNBC. - Mona N.

What about Cramer telling folks to get the hell out of the market? Coming from a man who pumped up the market for the past few years. - Aviv

Robert I am more with Jeremy. Down 10%. Not good to be sure. BUt a good data persons says: 10%. Ok that is steep but it is NOT 50% - the energy of the conversation, the panic stuff, that would equate to 50% from a data point of view. - Roxanne Darling via twhirl

Robert, I think the issue is that people are already afraid, you throw out more reasons for them to be fearful, and they are afraid of that. Honestly, I'm worried about what's going on but, I try to provide solidarity to the people around me. As such a big pillar of the blogging community, I think that maybe they just want you to try and be solid. I respect you for your unflinching honesty. - James Fuller via twhirl

Robert: I agree. The truth is the truth. We often don't understand the "principle of bread dough" when it comes to our own country's actions financially or otherwise. (Anyone who bakes, knows what this metaphor means) Or put another way, its like disturbing the water table: you can't dig in one area and not think someplace off site will not be affected. Re: home ownership. Everyone needs a home. The problem lies in elevating the cost of the high end so that the low end becomes increasingly.... - Melanie Reed

Crammer didn't tell people to get out of the market. He said you should have a cash reserve for 5 years to plan for the worst. He said definitaly not to pull out your 401k if you are more than 5 years from retirerment - Robert Hafer

Aviv: Cramer was right, based on this week's performance in the markets so far. - Robert Scoble

talking about fear - yours, others is not the same thing as saying we're in a death spiral. being positive about the future does not preclude talking about your fears. i see it like this. things are bad. they're gonna be bad for a while. not a lot of this is within our control, but some is. i am focused on identifying that which i can control and dealing with it. i am also working to keep from allowing my fear to gain too much control over my actions. - MikeAmundsen

Robert: of course he was, but calling doomsday when it's, well, actually doomsday, is not really all that difficult. Some smart folks have been predicting this for many months (even years) now, but as you can imagine they weren't the most popular ones at dinner parties. People were too afraid to think about what's going to happen. - Aviv

Mike: so far my only actions has been to put off some major home repairs that aren't totally necessary in order to have more cash on hand. Problem is, one little action like that repeated by everyone causes plumbers to get laid off. And the cycle continues. Roxanne: the stocks I track have lost about 30% of their value so far, or more. Nvidia, for instance, used to be at 40. Now it's about 8. That's not just "10%" and I don't see any resistance to it going down more. - Robert Scoble

Robert: Do people not realize that with outstanding debt, what we robbed from Social Security & Medicare, the US is in the tank for $53Trillion? This will be a wake up for many... - Mark VandenBerg

unattainable for larger and larger groups of people who miss even that entry. The more luxuries we demand in our society the more we take our eyes off what we really need. Why should we begrudge making it possible for everyone to afford a home if it means we do without some things that frankly we don't really need? - Melanie Reed

Robert: i hear ya. right now some of your actions might cause some pain for others. that sucks. i'm sure you only do this cuz you need to. not everyone will be in the same spot. some will be able to do things that help others in important ways - even it that it not monetary. and i think that's important ot keep in mind. the 'solution' is not tied only to money. i found some changes i can make to improve our family's lifestyle even while we adjust where/how we spend.i see others doing similar things, too. - MikeAmundsen

I think it's more of a call for you to report on how people are trying to correct the economy instead of just saying that it's going under. Shed a little hope and optimism on the situation instead of more fear. - xero

xero: the problem is that most everyone I talk to is still in the middle of fear. It's not known how deep or destructive this crisis will be. It's clear it's one hell of a storm coming though. I said it's like having a Cat 5 hurricane coming directly toward you and the best you can do is hope it doesn't swamp the levies near your house. - Robert Scoble

My portfolio is down avg 37% and one of my stocks down 82% ... I sold some of my tech stocks two weeks ago; glad I did. Looking at BIDU and GOOG now, might get some tomorrow. They will go up again. Companies need the leads they get from search engines. - Julio F ~ @SocialJulio

To add, have you evaluated your investment strategies? (long term, short term, etc.) And are you sure the recent events will impact you in the long term? Bigger picture, you guys. Look at the bigger picture... - Mona N.

@Mona: +1 - MikeAmundsen

Julio: I would dollar cost average back into the market. I'm still seeing a LOT of downward pressure on stocks. We haven't yet faced the true bottoms of our fears. Plus, if financial results come in at the end of the quarter and they are bad, GOOG could go down even more. - Robert Scoble

Mona: the market probably won't come back up a lot for at least two quarters. First we need to really get to the bottom of the market (we ain't there yet). Then we need two quarters of better than expected results to really see a good move upward. Maybe even one, if we push this sucker down enough. But I'm hearing of lots of layoffs coming through. Those will be tougher for people to recover from. - Robert Scoble

Really, you have to start with yourself. In your own mind, try to see clearly into the future instead of buying into fear, uncertainty and doubt. When you get that confidence, take to your blog and help people understand what they can do. This is the approach I'm taking right now, including a post today which you can find if you want to read it. not to be cliché, but it starts with you first, then everyone else... - Aaron Brazell

Aaron: good advice, but that requires a bit of self delusion. I'm not quite there yet. :-) - Robert Scoble

LOL - some would argue that you've been there since your Microsoft days! ;-) - Aaron Brazell

I went 100% into cash Apr 2007 because I didn't want the risk of being in the market given an unpredictable housing bubble (Also left the market in Feb 2000 except for $20,000 which did terribly). Many friends in the Bay Area sold their houses 2-3 yrs ago & started renting. I've been watching the market to see if I want to cost-average in... S&P is down 36% (996, high 1556 in July 2007). - Mitchell Tsai

Robert: And that's only four quarters. Are you planning to retire any time soon? I sure as hell hope not. And as a leader in the tech industry, people are looking at you to tell them: "Look, everything is crap right now, I'm not sugar coating anything. Things ARE going to get tough. But this what you can do and how you can do it. There *is* hope." You have such a large voice and a huge presence. Don't use it to instill fear, but use it to tell people be realistic but optimistic, and we will pull through. - Mona N.

...unless you truly think we're not. - Mona N.

I'm with Mona on that. - Aaron Brazell

Aaron: leaving Microsoft was the best thing I could have done for me and my family. Since then I've gotten to meet Queens and Presidential Candidates, not to mention the world's smartest geeks. All stuff I would never have gotten to do if I had stayed at Microsoft. And, if I get laid off, I can always go back! - Robert Scoble

My Microsoft joke was a joke. :-) - Aaron Brazell

Yeah, I figured. But it deserved a straight answer. :-) - Robert Scoble

International markets are simply responding to what happens on Wall St. Forget the Nikkei, it's an outlier, the other markets reflect more like 5%, in line with the results from the US overnight (here). Right now, the US moves global markets, not the other way around. - Warren

i wonder if someone will give me a loan so i can invest in the market right now... - George Lee via twhirl

Robert, I'm not going to argue with you on the facts. Right now, it's an emotional issue with you and everyone else. My one observation is that you seem much more pessimistic than most of the people I work with, and I work for Yahoo! - Glen Campbell

I promised myself I would stay out of this but I have to at least say this: Robert - who is to say the "truth" you are "reporting" is the right "truth"? Surely you don't see yourself as a economy expert able to say what is and what isn't the "truth". Honestly I wish you'd stop talking about the economy and fear and get back to talking about those "world's smartest geeks" and companies and what not that you report on. People look to you to talk about all the cool tech stuff happening not for you to continue to spread FUD about the economy. Seriously - you can make a difference here. Either you keep spreading fear or you start talking about cool shit to help people take their minds off that fear. - Brandon LeBlanc via twhirl

Here's a reason for hope. There is still liquidity in some sectors. Monster just completed it's acquisition of ChinaHR for $174M - http://online.wsj.com/article/... - Aaron Brazell

Brandon: that's an interesting point. But if my truth is not the right truth, put out an alternate view of what you view as truth. Don't tell me to shut up. And I refuse to be typecast into a little box of only doing PR for startups. If that's what you think I'm all about you are definitely wrong. By the way, if you want some good news you should read this: http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2008/1... from Fred Wilson, VC. - Robert Scoble

There is more to the economy than people's stock portfolio. Mine is down on average 18%. I don't like it but really, the hyberbole here is not in synchrony with the math. The markets are more driven by psychology than math. We can manage our psychology, if we want. - Roxanne Darling via twhirl

Better yet - http://www.rgemonitor.com/ - Aviv

I love how we can have "conversations" thanks to FriedFeed. If this was a topic on a blog, I would read it, but not participate... not sure why... - Julio F ~ @SocialJulio

it is scary down in So Cal too, but somewhat depends where you are and who's talking - Barbara Duck via twhirl

Robert, with your awesome contacts and press pass, I would like to see you post some stuff as to what we as common tech folk should do, and when. Something helpful with much information that the geek factor can use to in protecting ourselves. What to plan for? What companies are doing in tech? Does Cisco see a down turn, if not now when? What should we look for in the companies we work for as signs of coming cuts or something. Just keep a close eye on things for us. - Chris W

The reason why I think it's irresponsible to fuel fear is because at this point most of the downward pressure is being caused by fear. Leadership is about finding the opportunities right now and pointing them out... - Joi Ito via twhirl

Robert: That's the kind of confidence this market needs. We need more Fred Wilsons. - Aaron Brazell

As I understand it, Robert is saying (and please correct me if I'm wrong) that we are possibly in deeper trouble than we realize. Now I agree with everyone that we should have hope and look forward to a recovery but I believe Robert is kinda calling for a deep and frank examination of the fundamental issues underlining this in an attempt to ensure this doesn't happen again. Glazing over the eyeballs and only looking forward won't expose the weakness in the system, a system we all have responsibility for. - Johnny Worthington

John, I think most of us in this conversation are not suggesting ignoring the problem and hoping it goes away. I think most sober people would agree that that is precisely the attitude that got us here in the first place. I also don't think that people calling for Robert to step up as a leader are suggesting he pretend nothing is wrong. Tho I disagree with his politics, Giuliani instilled a much higher confidence on 9/11 than Bush did. Simply because he was a leader when people needed a leader. :) - Aaron Brazell

John: I certainly am looking for more pushback than I'm getting. That lack of serious pushback (and pushback does NOT mean telling me to "shut up", but providing evidence that I'm wrong) is really freaking me out even more. The fact that I have to go and find my own "anti" evidence is telling me that we aren't really having a good conversation yet about what's going on. That too tells me that there's more downside because if FF'ers aren't able to articulate where the economy is going I have little hope. - Robert Scoble

Robert, I wouldn't get too uptight about Friendfeeders not being able to articulate complexities about the economy. Certainly, Fred is an exception. He's a VC used to looking at big numbers. I think most of us are still just digesting it all and we don't really know what to think. Like I mentioned earlier, my gut says we're near the bottom. Don't ask me to explain that though as I don't know if I can. - Aaron Brazell

Robert, my point wasn't you to go off an do PR for startups. My point was you have the power to influence folks here in such a way it can help ease fears. I don't think you're all about PR for startups. Why I like reading your stuff is because you point out really neat stuff YOU think is cool. You thought some of what Seagate is doing with storage was cool and you talked about that. BTW I never told you to shut up. Would never do that. I simply asked you to focus on something else. I'm just adding my thoughts here is all. And regarding what "truth" is the real "truth" - I don't have enough information or knowledge to state what I might think the "truth" really is. I was just posing the question to you really. - Brandon LeBlanc via twhirl

I think it's worse than most people can even understand. I thought the downside exposure was the housing bubble burst, until I learned about the credit default swap (CDS) market. It is a huge, never regulated ponzi scheme built on top of the mortgage market that dwarfs the mortgage problem by 10x. The CDS market has collapsed and frozen the commercial credit market. This American Life has an incredible podcast about this. Links and a summary - The Crash of 2008 Explained http://ta.gg/1h8 - Alex Nesbitt

Aaron: I don't think we're at bottom. I think it might solidify at 9,000 for a little while, until financial results start coming in. Then I wouldn't be shocked to find us at 8,000 or below. Once we hit that bottom then I think we can start talking about rebuilding the economy. But that's just my opinion and, you know what they say about opinions! :-) - Robert Scoble

Robert: if you're looking for folks to tell you it's not gonna get any worse i suspect you're out of luck. if you're looking for some predictions about wher the bottom is, i don't think it's pretty early for that. i, personally, think we'll see resistance@ 9000. i can't get my head around the int'l economies, tho. Pakistan and Iceland are teetering this morning and Europe is just starting to deal. - MikeAmundsen

Well, things need to get cheap again before people can buy again. I'm talking stocks obviously. With little to no credit movement, it's going to be hard for investors to move expensive stocks so that correction will continue to happen. I think what you will likely see is a comfort level set in with the downward trend. It's OMGWTFBBQ when it sets in, cuz we're not used to it. A few weeks of big losses almost makes it normal and confidence will come back, bargain buyers will emerge. - Aaron Brazell

Robert, you have a great deal of influence - why spread fear when you can help ease people's fears instead? - Brandon LeBlanc via twhirl

That's why I think we are nearing bottom. - Aaron Brazell

Well, here's something to think about Robert: of all the banking crises around the world from 1970 through to today, the average amount injected by governments to bail out their banks has been something like 6% of GDP. Your bailout is, (perhaps not) coincidentally, 6% of your GDP. So either you've got it really bad, and 6% isn't enough, or the bailout will work once its effects flow through. - Warren

it is scary down in So Cal too, but somewhat depends where you are and who's talking - Barbara Duck via twhirl

Brandon: simple: I'm not a propogandist. The day I become one is the day that I lose all that influence you ascribe to me. And, finally, we all have equal voices here on FriendFeed. If you see that I'm wrong, put out an alternate theory! - Robert Scoble

Sorry about the duplicate post, - Barbara Duck via twhirl

You don't have to be at rock-bottom to cost-average in...just as you don't have to sell at the tops. Or mimic some institutions and slide in-out positions partially (e.g. 25-50-75% at a time). You don't make the maximum gains, but you can be happy about "hey. I pulled 25% out, and bought back in x% cheaper in one month". Gives some happy news in a down market. I started investing just after the 1987 crash (86 college grad), so I grew up on down-markets. They're opportunities! - Mitchell Tsai

Scoobie, you were moaning that McCain was going to win 2 weeks ago - and you knew more about that than you do about the economy. Just do your job we subscribed to you for and shut up about all your amateur feelings. - Morgan Warstler

Mitchell, you should write a nice confidence-building post, some how-tos, etc and relentlessly spam twitter and friendfeed with stuff that will help us all get our wits back. :) In the meantime, I'm going to bed because it's 3:20am and that doesn't instill confidence in my tomorrow :) - Aaron Brazell

Waht blows me away is all the money going towards R and D, millions, but someone has to be able to afford the end result product or service somewhere down the line - Barbara Duck via twhirl

We're not in an endless downward spiral because eventually it'll get to zero and stop. Okay, seriously, there are still real assets out there. What's happening is the leverage applied to those assets is going away. We should not get too far below 1:1 or else... I'll buy it up. - Morton Fox

Aaron. Stop-losses are a classic exit technique. You can also use multiple stop-losses (e.g. 1/3 sell at -15%, -25%, and -35%). That set doesn't help you now that the market is down 36%, but consider a new set of stop losses at -36%, -40%, and -45%. If the market tanks & goes down 60%, you'll be patting yourself on the back. If the market goes up tomorrow after selling 1/3 at 36%, you can be sad about taking a little loss, and happy that the other 2/3 has recovered. Find happiness either way. - Mitchell Tsai

If you are down 36%, you need a 56% gain to recover. But if you are down 50%, you need a 100% gain to recover. That 14% difference is crucial. Difficult lesson of stocks - "Sell your losers, Hold your winners". I didn't think the potential gain in 2007 (given China's boom and the sky-high stocks) was worth the possible losses from a crazy housing bubble. Yeah, I've only made a lousy 4% in 2007 and 2008. I think in 1991 I made -1%, and was happy I beat the -4% S&P. - Mitchell Tsai

I actually have to agree with you Robert. - Mathew Ballard

Well this whole conversation, after sleeping on it, is changing my form. http://technosailor.com/2008/1... - Aaron Brazell

.. and the tsunami has not hit europe. yet. i'm simply tryin' to take cover, and abandon all investments. then, we'll see. - Marco Scano

I think fear is good, because we've been on such a high for the last few years. "Irrational exuberance" in the housing market is as much of a problem as it was in the tech stock. Getting back to the fundamental with a balance of fear and greed is not neccessary a bad thing. - Eric Lau

My thoughts here: http://www.jeremytoeman.com/wh... - Jeremy Toeman

They have a point because fear feeds on itself. We are seeing politicians play on our fears right now, trying to use fear to their advantage. But fear mostly comes from the unknown. We should discuss our fears. Understand them and then realize that the worst case scenarios aren't that bad. - ChiliMac

FriendFeed should add a time stamp at the end of each message ... Robert, I did not buy GOOG ... saved a few dollars; Thanks! - Julio F ~ @SocialJulio