Google Wave is going to have a problem penetrating large companies -- the user must install Chrome frame if they are using IEx (which most are). These machines are locked down. So Google must convince these companies to install it on all machines.
No I don't think it is a dud nor do I think it won't become popular but I do think the road to popularity and usefulness is likely to be somewhat rocky. In fact I am encouraged and am plotting to build a product based on it.
- Brian Sullivan