I have always found it odd that since the stock market is a reflection of the perception of traders, it is the traders that more or less determine the health of the stock market. Of course there are other factors, in this case they are actually real world factors such as people losing their homes and massive layoffs that affect spending power, but basically there is enough money among rich investors to bend the market to their will. Is this illegal market manipulation or a just more efficient free market solution than the bailout? - Devlin Dunsmore
Liked what you said, but I'm not hoarding. That only fuels the fear fire. - Kevin C. Tofel
oh, and look. They passed the bail out bill and the dow is still going down. That sure was a good use of 700 billion dollars. - Wizetux
Is this not the time for someone to step in and give us 'hope'? Take a deep breath, calm down. Or are we being sent the message and no one is listening? On the other hand we are in the free market and the market is supposed to be always rational :p - Sheraz Mahmood
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@Devlin but the trader's perception is generally based on the outlook of the companies they're trading which is based on the strength of economies. - ·[▪_▪]·
Positive news from my Grandma who lived through the Great Depression: It could be worse. - todd
For those who can master their fears, this is a huge opportunity. I can assure you Warren Buffet is on high alert and will be taking massive advantage during the downturn - and I can tell you SmugMug is planning on "doubling down" on super-star talent during the downturn, too, as we watch our competitors without business models flounder. The news is only doom-and-gloom if you look at it that way. Instead, look at it as a buying/building/solidfying opportunity. - Don MacAskill
Wizetux: it would be far worse if the banks weren't bailed out. Morton: my cash. I have some that was budgeted to fix a shower that we're not fixing. Kevin: it's time we face our fears and stop trying to pretend this market is healthy. The sooner we hit the bottom of our fear, the better off we are. - Robert Scoble
+1 on Don's comment. It is going to suck in many ways, but keep the long view and see how you can make the best of the situation. This is a huge correction to our market that has been building for a long time, but this too shall pass. - Jeremy Hall
Preparation is the arch-enemy of fear..... IMHO - Bwana McCall
Fear may be bottomless. Actively countering fear could work better. - todd
I'm at the point now where I only want to hear positive news about the economy, or at least my own future. I hope that in the short term my programming skills will prove useful to folks - in the long term, I know they will. - Emotion Tad
Don: that is great advice, but if you buy too early going into a downturn you can do yourself real harm. Let's say you think the market is going up from here and it goes down to 7,000. That isn't smart. I'd wait to see the bottom of our fears first. We aren't even close to being there yet. - Robert Scoble
Maybe I'll regret it but I've been buying stocks. Bought some AAPL today. - Mike Doeff
If you plan on buying, i think you can start buying soon and plan to dollar-cost-average all the way down. That's only possible if you think you won't need to touch any of that money for a few years. But it's a good way to buy into good companies. Another option, save and wait until things start recovering ~2010. - ·[▪_▪]·
Mike: if you have $10,000 to invest and think the market will go up soon, I'd dollar cost average into the market. There is no way to time this market. Now, what do you do if you are totally into the market and think it's going down to 8,000? Do you stay in for "long term" along with you guys? :-) - Robert Scoble
@Mike. That is a good thing. Buy low, sell high. And you won't regret it in 3 years when the DOW comes back up. - Wizetux
Wizetux: if the market comes up in three years dollar cost averaging in now will be MUCH better than buying all in today. - Robert Scoble
Dollar Cost Averaging means if you have $10,000 you don't invest all $10,000 today. You put $1,000 into the market every month (or, if you are more conservative, $500 every month). That lets you get your money into a market without trying to time it. If the market goes down to 7,000 before starting back up, then this strategy will make you a ton of money. Chances are this market is going down a lot further. The bad side is if it turns around and starts going up today. - Robert Scoble
I agree with scobleizer. If you're wanting to invest $10K, divide it up into weekly or monthly portions per investment over a year or two and invest it on a schedule. You'll be way better off than investing it all at once. - ·[▪_▪]·
Robert, I've been doing very small trades - not betting the farm. I still have some dry powder available if it goes down further. - Mike Doeff
This is painful...but there is no real solution around it...it will take time. I do not think that it is just the fear cycle. We need time to regroup, refocus and start innovating again. I think that this crash is the end of speculative markets. If America wants to stay ahead, we need to go back to innovation and productivity. The good news is that there are still tons and tons of problem to be solved... - Edwin Khodabakchian
At what point does the President Suspend Trading completely? - Christopher Welle
"The good news is that there are still tons and tons of problem to be solved..." Contrary to how I would expect for this statement to make me feel, it actually gives me some hope!! - Lindsay Donaghe
@Robert, except that over the long term, the market has been shown to return more on the dollar than that of the inflation of the dollar, so in the long (more than 5 years) run, buying now will always be better than keeping your dollars. - Wizetux
Christopher: why would the President do that? Does he have the power to do that? Wouldn't that freak people out even more? - Robert Scoble
But I also agree, that buying in small portions is always the better method. - Wizetux
Wizetux that's absolutely wrong. It is because you are averaging in the good years with the bad. If you can avoid the bad years your money will do even better! - Robert Scoble
Robert, He can. He can declare a state of emergency (i.e. Martial Law) and I believe that includes the markets. We can thank 911/The Patriot Act for that. Since congressman were apparently threatened with Martial Law if the bailout bill didn't pass, I wouldn't put it past the current administration. http://www.wikio.com/video/482... - Bwana McCall
Yeah, and if I knew what the lottery numbers are going to be tonight, then I would buy a lottery ticket. However, since I don't, I am going to play the option with the best return at my acceptable rate of risk. The stock market is not a a method to make quick cash, but something that makes you money over the long term. According to the last 50 years, the good year of the market have always out performed the bad ones. - Wizetux
Robert, you misunderstand me. I'm not pretending that the market is healthy because it's not. I'm simply trying not change my spending habits as a result. I've always been a saver and while I hate to see big unrealized losses, I have no need of my long term investments for 20+ years. My income hasn't changed (luckily) so I'm fighting to keep my spending habits at normal for as long as possible. - Kevin C. Tofel
Being that I am 27 years old, I can afford to have my money in the stock market because I have at least another 40 year to work and make more money. Now, I am not going to put all of my money there because I need to eat and I will loss more taking money back out of the market in the short term. Now, if I was 50 and looking at retirement in 10 years, I would only have a very little of my money in the market because it won't make enough there and the risk is too high. Thus I would buy CDs or Bonds. - Wizetux
isn't talking about suspending trading and declaring martial law a little premature? doesn't it add into the fear this post is supposed to help counter? - Jonathan Jesse
Jonathan, I didn't say it, the congressman did. I'll tell you one thing, it's best to be prepared than to be caught off guard. There's a difference between panicking and planning. But I'm just a fear-mongering, conspiracy theorist, don't listen to me :) - Bwana McCall
The fundamentals of many companies have been ignored. Now without hype being used to sell, you've only got the balance sheet. Have a look at what typically blue chip stocks have been trading at; 12-24 Price:Earnings. It's still a correction and it is justified - Cains
Robert, chill. Don't get people all panicky. Yes, the economy is taking a hit, but the Dow is only one metric. We need to be strong and willing to shoulder this burden together to turn things around. - Teresa Valdez Klein
Teresa: I can't chill. I've been reading the Wall Street Journal and the Economist and they aren't chilling. :-) - Robert Scoble
I didn't get out in January when I had some gains and it's too late to get out now, no point in buying high and selling low. I'm young enough that it's better for me to just ride out the storm. Plus I'm automatically doing dollar cost averaging via my 401k. - Alex "Maverick" Scoble
Alex: the market could go way down and stay down for a few years. As long as you can risk that, I'd stay in. Me? I don't have enough market money to worry about and I'm just staying in anyway. I wish I had gotten out earlier too, but that's water under the bridge. - Robert Scoble
Hoarding or Saving? Is this like Bail out or Rescue plan? - Cains
Cains: saving is what you were doing (or should have been doing) six months ago. Hoarding is what you are doing differently today. See the difference? I do in my own budgets. - Robert Scoble
“Okay, so I've turned my Twitter feed off in Friendfeed to minimize the noise. I'm trying to add content regularly and comment/like other folks content yet my comments suck. What gives?”
I'm with you on that. I followed a similar path, but unless you have something really riveting, you have an active tight network, or you are in the conversation starting elite, commenting seems to have dropped off a bit in FF. That's been my observation at least. - Jeremy Hall
Thanks Jeremy. I guess I just need to keep plugging away. Glad to know I've at least got company. - Aaron Strout
I had a lot of fun at first with FF participating in all kinds of pointless conversations. I find now I am hiding all the b-day wishes, funny photos, etc. and trying to organize my lists for noisy vs useful posting type people. I enjoy the fun sometimes, but for the most part I'd like my FF home feed to be useful. - Jeremy Hall
"Before, when ad agencies or publishers needed photographic content for a project, they would hire a photographer. In past years, this practice has been slowly replaced with stock photos." - Kol Tregaskes
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“The Scoble brothers are confusing me... I keep hearing that going out and buying stuff you can't afford is what's messed up the economy, but that saving your money is not supporting the economy because you're not spending it on "optional" things which puts people out of jobs... Which is it, guys?”
Buy stuff you need that you can afford. I don't buy the argument that we should spend money on things we don't need to prop up the economy. Investing promotes growth as much as, if not more than, spending. - Morton Fox
Both actually. Which is why it's pretty damn hard to guide the economy right now. How do you contract credit a bit at a time, without throwing the economy into shock? The problem is credit is getting cut back, and now that people are freaked out they are hoarding and that's going to throw the economy into shock. Or so my friends around FastCompany and Inc magazines are telling me. - Robert Scoble
You're trying to make sense out of not just one, but two Scobles? Brave woman. - Emotion Tad
Are they both saying that or are they each subscribing to a different philosophy? - Mattie Kenny
I'd go one step further Morton: buy stuff you WANT that you can afford. - Craig Eddy
We've swung too far to the other direction, where no one buys anything for fear of needing the money for the upcoming apocalypse. It's the economic equivalent of a punch to the gut and then an uppercut to the head. - Alex "Maverick" Scoble
I think the key phrase is *healthy spending* - Lindsey Smith
It's like that thing with the deal, you know, and you have to, like, force it to not contract but expand but not too much or else it'll contract and then the expansion will do that thing which Scoble is talking about. I think. - Glen Campbell
"no one buys anything"...I'd be careful of over-generalized "certainties". People who have secure incomes and no debt are still buying the things they want. Companies that have cash, no debt, and recession-resistant business models are going to make out great. - Craig Eddy
Craig, there are two extremes here. One where people buy way too much on credit, to the point that any economic problem can seriously mess with their ability to pay and the other where no one buys anything, because they are afraid of the upcoming apocalypse. Right now we've swung from close to one extreme back to the other. - Alex "Maverick" Scoble
Shouldn't saving, i.e. increasing the amount of money "for sale" if you will, lower the price of money, i.e. interest rates, and increase investment? - Mark Foundos
And it's not the only thing that's gotten us where we are. Again, people being overly leveraged isn't USUALLY a problem until the economy hickups somewhere else (like a spike in fuel prices, etc.). - Alex "Maverick" Scoble
This is a prime example of the Collective Action Dilemma which is a theory of sociology that says individual rationality leads to public disaster. IOW, what's good for each of us individually is bad for us all as a group. - Dawn
Woah Dawn - that sounds like it came out of some Objectivist book... - Emotion Tad
@Alex... people being "overly" leveraged IS usually a problem. There are advantages to using OPM at times, as long as the rates are good, you have solid collateral, and you have enough income/assets to weather a storm (i.e., continue making payments). But, too many individuals in the US, too many businesses, and too much of the government, overly leverage themselves... that's why we have a lot of the problems that we have. - £ogical €xtremes
@Alex people being overly leveraged isn't usually a problem until...??? That's like saying shooting up crack isn't usually a problem until you overdose. Leverage is a means of geometric acceleration, and it works just as effectively in reverse. If leverage lifts you up, it just as easily drops an anvil on your head. - Chris Kenton
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The other day I think it was Robert, but might have been Alex, that said that if we were to give everyone their slice of the $700B they'd just stick it in their savings account and that would be bad because they weren't spending it... but I have to agree with Mark Foundos... seems like putting money in the banks, which are currently hurting for lack of capital, would be a good thing.... - Lindsay Donaghe
Linsday, I said something similar to that, but I said that people would just use it to pay down their debt. Of course those of us without debt (I don't count a home loan as debt since it works for you in so many ways) would either go out and buy something that we had put off or put it in savings if that was our need. - Alex "Maverick" Scoble
Personally, if the government gave me $5k right now, I'd put it into the stock market. - Alex "Maverick" Scoble
Whatever happened to Le Tigre and Bunny? - Victor Ganata
"Bunny is married and has four children. Tigra moved to New York City where she became a general manager at the night club Spa/Plaid, and has recorded an album released in early 2007. Tigra has also recently done the jingle for Pinkberry. In the early 2000s, one of the DJs of Spa/Plaid was an aspiring music producer named Fancy (not to be confused with the 1980s Italo Disco artist)." - from wikipedia - Corie "Viper" Jones
So here is the 5D Mark II, which punches high in terms of both resolution and features, headlining: 21 megapixels, 1080p video, 3.0" VGA LCD, Live view, higher capacity battery. In other words, a camera that aims to leapfrog both its direct rivals, either in terms of resolution (in the case of the D700) or features (in the case of the DSLR-A900). - clarke thomas
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Okay, so the sound bites of "you are defined by who you follow, if you can't stand the noise, don't subscribe to many people" and "every subscription must be reciprocal" are contradictory. I see so many people claiming both as truths simultaneously. For someone new to FriendFeed, this is hell of confusing. I'd have to imagine that, to the uninitiated, FriendFeed looks more like a cabal than a place to get things done. - Mark Trapp
Mark: I don't buy into the reciprocation thing. That's only 1/3 of FF. The other 2/3rds? 1/3 is that it's an aggregator. No participation required other than you follow them (that's why TechCrunch is my favorite feed here, even though those guys don't participate here). The other 1/3rd? It's a search engine for the live web. No participation required there, either. FriendFeed does a lot, and that's why you get confusing advice. - Robert Scoble
Reciprocation builds corroboration and credibility. However, you'll create a useless echo chamber if you do not include your own take-- your own analysis of what someone posted. - Glenn Batuyong
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I also think it's all about participation, but I have a different rule than you on subscriptions. I generally don't subscribe to someone until I've interacted with them and they have proved entertaining or informative. I get subscriptions from people who don't participate in FriendFeed much if at all... I don't see a point in reciprocating. Mainly I just find new people in my FOAF . Eventually, that way, I end up subscribing to most of the people who subscribe to me. - Lindsay Donaghe
Because of the Friend-of-Friend flow, I'm much less likely to directly subscribe to folks that i don't actually know, either reciprocally or not. I generally only subscribe to folks that i've either shared a drink with IRL, or that i'de like to share a drink with. :) - Chris Hollander
Lindsay: I agree long term that participating does matter. I know I'm building new structures here because I'm subscribing to participants. - Robert Scoble
I don't feel a requirement to follow those that follow me. I have email notifications on though, and I do usually check a new follower out to see if I think their stuff will be of interest to me. If I think so, then I add them. I never have a problem with noise really, I'm good at skim reading. - Ian May
Robert: that type of contradictory flexibility gets me wondering about the overall value of FriendFeed: if a large portion of the people are expecting one thing (that this is a news dump), another large portion of the people are expecting another (that this is a big reciprocal party), nobody winds up being happy with the service as a whole. Almost like how spam is a necessary evil of using email: for FriendFeed, if you want to use it, prepare to spend a good deal of time filtering out everything you don't want regularly. I know you've called for it as filters, but man, what I wouldn't kill for SpamAssassin for FriendFeed: the problem is, spam is almost universally hated. A lot of the content that I can't stand stand is loved by a great many people. And I'm sure everyone has a similar situation. - Mark Trapp
My mantra: Friendfeed is what you make it, what you want it to be. Anybody who says different is trying to sell something. - Michael W. May
Mark: now you know why I've been quite consistent in asking for a much more full-featured database here. I saw this problem immediately back in February when I started showing FriendFeed to other people. When I can say to the database "show me all items that mention the word 'economy' with two or more likes and three or more comments" then I'll know we're getting someplace. - Robert Scoble
+1 Robert - I echo your feature request above :) - Susan Beebe
I wish I could "like" Robert's comment above, instead of just the main post... - Garrett Fitzgerald
I don't understand the concept of reciprocity at all. I subscribe to people I find interesting. After I interact with them for awhile, they may end up subscribing to me, or they may not need to because we may have a friend in common so they will at least see any post of mine that is commented on or liked, due to the FOAF feature. Honestly, I could give a rat's ass who is subscribed to me. - Laura Norvig
I side with Laura on this topic. I am here to learn and interact. - Mathew A. Koeneker
Agree totally with Michael W May with one exception. I've spoken with a number of people just discovering FF (Seasoned web vets). If you enter at the wrong time, you could have a confusing screen. Somehow there needs to be more guidance for brand new people so they don;t leave. - Charlie Anzman
Lately I've been really getting into FriendFeed. Part of the reason that I like the site so much is that it provides a far superior experience to graze Flickr than Flickr itself. Don't get me wrong, FriendFeed does not replace Flickr, rather it enhances Flickr and provides functionality that Flickr itself does not. With that in mind I put together another top 10 list, this time "The Top 10 Reasons Why FriendFeed is a Better Place to Browse Flickr Photos Than Flickr Itself." - Thomas Hawk
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you forgot the "super great" part Mona. hahaha! good stuff TH. - Carlos Ayala
Definitely agree with your comments - FriendFeed is a much better way to spot some of the great pictures on Flickr that get lost otherwise. - Richard Peat
I agree. I only wish it could be possible to enlarge the photos streamed from Flickr into FriendFeeed. - Nick
I agree with you Nick. If Flickr images could be imported big like SmugMug's are that would be *kick ass*. I suspect though that this is a Flickr RSS limitation though more than it is a FriendFeed sort of thing. - Thomas Hawk
My reason #11: Friendfeed has a snappy UI while Flickr is too often too slow. - Ole Begemann
I agree. I have discovered a lot of great photographs through Friendfeed, along with some excellent photographers. - Trish R
with Friendfeed , I can custom tailor the photographers that I want to view and also , I see more favourited photos on FF , that I would normally miss on Flickr . - johnpiercy
I love being able to see all of the photos that people add as favorites, it makes discovering photos much easier - William Spaetzel
I'm subscribing to my contacts photostream with RSS. I'm not sure, but I think it allows you to view more than the last 5 or 10 uploads. - Rutger Blom
the picture with the five birds on the single limb each with a bee in their mouth is quite the money shot. i wonder how common it is to make a shot like this with this species. - Carlos Ayala
These sites always make me want to get into photography but I always feel like I can't financially afford to. It's such a $$ hobby :( - Soup
Totally agreed Amy. I think I'm gonna save it for retirement :P - Shey
I bookmarked this link when it came out, still useful to refer to today. Amy, Photography is a pricey hobby but it doesn't have to be. Most point and shoots can take some good pictures these days. - Michael
