PREDICTION: The problem FriendFeed will have is when it will be very popular (mainstream if you want), there will be so much content that you won't be able to see eevrything. A page refresh and tons of content is published. We will for sure miss tons of good stuff.
a page shows say, 30 entries, between two refreshes, say there's 2000 new entries by friends and friends of friends... you see what I mean?
- directeur
from NoiseRiver
We need some way to lens ACROSS content, to view things based on value / ranking / medium, etc. Already there's more content in even my shallow feed than I can comfortably follow, and few of my friends even use FF.
- Alexander Williams
from NoiseRiver
I expect we'll see more than you realize. Likes and Comments keep stuff bouncing to the top until you get a chance to see it.
- Hutch Carpenter
I'm liking and commenting just to bounce ya twice. ;)
- Internet's Tad
Best guess is that hyper growth is already being foreseen with numerous solutions. These guys are good!
- Charlie Anzman
only if you subscribe to everybody under the sun. I'm sure scoble aleady has that problem here and on twitter
- Brett Kelly
Block and Hide aren't nearly good enough for the things I want to do when updates hit several tens per second. I, really, want things like Boolean filters of near arbitrary complexity, feedback learning, and flexible presentation ranking, just to stay sane.
- Alexander Williams
from NoiseRiver
I'm telling you guys - Lindsay totally pegged it. FF is the site that just DEMANDS an Intelligent Agent to sift through the volcanic soil to expose the rough diamonds. If the FF devs have half a brain, they have a genius or two slaving away on that right now.
- Internet's Tad
I agree, lots of stuff falls through the cracks through out the day. I think the 'best of' was added for this reason. I haven't really used it that much though.
- Tsega Dinka
but all the good stuff is reshared... personally my eyes are trained to scan content quickly and efficiently. it weeds out what i'm interested in and not. if all else fails, there's always the "BLOCK" or "HIDE" options...
- Mona Nomura
Resharing is data-cluttering, as I see it. I want a system that unifies references to URLs, for one. It tells me where that reference is made from (Rooms, friends, likes, whatnot), but only gives me a single thing to look out for any given referent. The actual rest of info is just useful metadata for building lenses out of.
- Alexander Williams
from NoiseRiver
You ask the wrong question with your prediction my multi-lingual friend -- the question is not whether we will see too much, but whether we will see enough? FriendFeed (with or without NoiseRiver) is an extremely good model for seeing "enough". NoiseRiver will allow the "noise lovers" to see even more :-)
- Robert Seidman
As more people join, simply being good at managing who you follow will be more important and should keep the noise down.
- Martin Bryant
Surely people like Robert Scoble are already at that level, he manages fine!
- Joe Dawson
Especially if one uses small screens and apps like twhirl to view the feed...
- Henk de Kruyff
from twhirl
We'll just need a CloseFriendFinder app to sit on top of FriendFinder
- Craig Thomler
I don't see the problem if there is the right method to represent the contnet, in a away that the fruition of it by the user would be easier...
- Edoardo Piccolotto
from twhirl
Yes. There is the potential for much more clutter here than twitter, for example. FF needs enhanced filtering tools.
- Ian Fogg
It's already happening for me. Need tags. Plus likes and comments only go so far. What if I like stuff only a few others like? How do I find that?
- Larry Huffman
if more of my friends were on FF I wouldn't be subscribed to so many people I don't know
- Samuel Bostock
the average user isn't going to be subscribed to that many people. and the mainstream will be much less "active" in terms of generating content than the hardcore early adopters. In short, I don't buy the argument.
- Jamie
The average user doesn't use the majority of features present on mobile phones. In Portugal owning a expensive phone is a status statement, but most of them could use the cheapest mobile in term of features used. With software and web services it's the same, people use just a subset of the features, and they have to be in front of them. Power users and all it's likes and dislikes are useful to test the limits of a application, but besides that are not the voice of God.
- Mário Pires
This is where the top posts of the day/week/month will come into play. I sure that someone will comment or like a post before it flits away. It does bear consideration though, put some brakes on the speed of posting perhaps?
- Mathew A. Koeneker
from fftogo
Maybe a combo of FriendFeed and Digg? people could set to only receive posts with X number of likes/comments...or based on the rep of the person posting...
- Craig Thomler
If i could create "groups" of people by subjects relevant to me perhaps it would be more manageable.
- Mário Pires
so there will be meta services (think summize). Cool. no problemo.
- john conroy
Just look at the Everyone feed. Only imagine articles with 1,000 likes (ala Digg) and 500 comments (ala slashdot). Some people may want the raw feeds, we'll need new filters/views/trails/signposts/guides/topics etc...
- Mitchell Tsai
I have the feeling that the FF staff will roll with the punches. Scalability!
- Steve Isaacs
@Robert Scoble: you WON'T be able to manage that noise. It's simply a mathematical fact. Say, you see 30 post, and between two refreshes, 20.000 entries are posted. The next page will show the last 30 of these 20.000 new entries. You will miss the entries in between. Liking or commenting from FOAF won't help. Because the flow will run... fast.
- directeur
from NoiseRiver
Prescient in Twitter's case. For awhile it was so for FF too. I don't know about now however; things are slower.
- Maxamad
Hi, mohomed! That's so old, how did you find it? :)
- directeur
I was looking for a post with an mp3 attached to it from awhile ago that I needed, but couldn't find it. It's some soft of new jazz from Turkey. A bald guy with blue was attached as an image holding some sort of instrument. But I stumbled across a bunch of good other old posts.
- Maxamad
EDIT: This was from July of last year, you necromancers, you. — Hee: Full Metal Jacket vs. Dumb and Dumber. @flickchart makes me smile. Dumb and Dumber obviously! (kidding)
Full Metal Jacket every time m8. The first hour, with the Drill Instructer, 'Private Pile' etc. is one of the best hours in Cinema
- john conroy
i would choose dumb and dumber given that choice.
- edythe
Full Metal Jacket because of Stanley Kubrick and Vincent D'Onofrio. (Anyone else see D'Onofrio in The Salton Sea? He can be a brilliant comedic actor on the dark, dark side.
- Sean McBride
A dagger to my heart, Polly! I'm still waiting for Gigli or Glitter or Crossroads to come in my match-ups.
- Mark Trapp
the only kubrick i've seen that i've liked is Lolita. sorry, mark. :(
- edythe
That's all right, Polly. I'm sure we'll get through these trying times. He's like Tarantino: either love him or hate him.
- Mark Trapp
I can't think of many Kubrick films I've seen that I didn't think were masterpieces; but I know that some people hate his movies. He ranks among my three favorite directors (with Alfred Hitchcock and Martin Scorsese).
- Sean McBride
I like the combination idea, Akiva. "Dumb Metal Jacket?" Jim Carrey travels upriver in 'Nam to return a briefcase...
- Karim
I'm a huge, HUGE Kubrick fan. Omg - 2001.
- Internet's Tad
OMG Karim you made me shoot milk out of my nose!!
- Nathan Eckenrode
Tad -- either you are a HUGE Kubrick fan (I am one) or you hate him -- he's a polarizing figure, like many great geniuses.
- Sean McBride
…am I the only seeing "July 2 from Twitter" as the time stamp on this?
- Hiro Asari
This was, in fact, from July 2, 2008. Flickchart has been around for like a year: I've been wondering why everyone's acting like it's new lately.
- Mark Trapp
Ug, please don't remind Nathan of the date. We were in beta "hibernation" for a while, as another review puts it -- as you no doubt realized at the time, Mark -- and mostly it was my fault. But Flickchart has, in fact, been reborn with speed improvements, new features, FF integration, and lots more on the way. Our official launch is imminent at long last.
- Jeremy Thompson
Ah Jeremy, I didn't realize that it hasn't been launched yet. I knew it was a private beta when I was using it, but I just figured you guys launched at some point.
- Mark Trapp
You certainly would've thought so. I think it's come as a surprise to both you and Nathan. :P
- Jeremy Thompson
And yeah, Hiro, the majority of our users now are from the past week.
- Jeremy Thompson
wordpress is the best imho. GoDaddy is okay hosting. cheap and cheerful, and will automatically set up a WordPress site for you if you like using their deployment wizard.
- john conroy
what about Blue Host ? what are the MUST HAVE plugins for wordpress.org ?
- Nishant
My favorite platform is wordpress. The ease of installation and relative power and flexibility. I've never installed movable type though so I can't speak to it. I run my own servers so I can't help with good blog hosting providers.
- mikepk
WordPress for me. I've used all of the above (be it only briefly for 2) and prefer WP.
- Kol Tregaskes
Wordpress. I've played around with using Oxite or dasBlog, but I keep coming back to Wordpress.
- Roberto Bonini
I just use GoDaddy to host my blog. Never have had any issues from them and they have been great thus far.
- Mathew™ one of a kind
I will say that Wordpress is much better then Blogger, but I haven't used any others.
- Mathew™ one of a kind
Wordpress, but it depends on needs, expectations. Why don't more use tumblr. A perfectly respectable blogging platform. And uh, I despise blogger.
- Rick Powell
I think that's one of its strengths, particularly for those just starting out. Add disqus to the theme for comments (easy to do) and there ya go, a simple blog.
- Rick Powell
IMHO, Habari is the best blogging platform available, though it is still young and so doesn't have the sheer numbers of plugins and themes that WP does.
- Michael C. Harris
I'm with Blogger. Had 2 times a wordpress self-hosted blog, and a wordpress.com blog. Too much work with updates and a terrible gui. on .com almost no customizing. Blogger has pretty much possibilities to customize (everything Javascript/HTML/Flash), is maintained and unlimited space for text. So I switched back and use Blogger now for about 4 Years.
- Ryo / Fuck Facebook
I use Google Blogger, based mainly on its ability to be free even when using a custom domain.
- DGentry
Have been exploring Typead / Posterous. Seem really good. Not sure about domain hosting though
- Nishant
We Dutch use Pivot and are as proud of it as of our national soccerteam. But Pivot speaks better English than those soccerplayers alltogether.
- Ton Zijp
I use and really like Dreamhost.com. I've heard Bluehost.com is pretty good too though.
- Jennifer Sardam
I use Wordpress+Dreamhost. Like Posterous very much. Would like to combine WP with Posterous
- Maria Podolyak
I use a2hosting.com for my WordPress sites, haven't had any major issues. Have lots of friends who use MediaTemple and bitch about it frequently.
- Aaron B. Hockley
"I doubt all this, and am generally dubious about Alex Jones. However Dugg because, now more than ever, we have to let everyone have their say, even fringe-dwellers. And because there may be a small kernal of truth in the generally mad New World Order thesis."
- john conroy
A famous VC told me this week that Facebook is raising another round of funding at about the $6 billion valuation mark. I wish I could invest! Would you?
not sure I'd invest as the upside would now be relatively limited
- Shannon Clark
He told me he was considering putting in $25 million. Asked me if I would do that with my money, if I had it. I said "yes." Of course it wasn't my money, but Facebook is the success story. Far bigger than Twitter and thanks to Thursday's announcement I can see a way for them to make a ton of money.
- Robert Scoble
I'm still not convinced that they will ever make decent revenue. That being said, if they were public I'd probably pick up a few shares.
- Blake
Blake: I wonder if we thought about that when the yellow pages first came out when the telephone was very new?
- Robert Scoble
Is there information involved in that yes that isn't public? Like what the books look like (how much revenue are they generating anyway?) - What is the burn rate? etc - or just because you think they will "get there"?
- Brian Roy
Brian: he didn't give me any other information than this. I'm just going over their growth rate, they are growing a service the size of Twitter every 10 days or so.
- Robert Scoble
what is their annual profit value? how much of that money would you be likely to get back in real terms - "potential" doesn't count, I would want a real idea on how much money their business is generating before ever considering investing. (I don't have the cash so it'd be a moot point anyway)
- alphaxion
I call Facebook "the velcro of social software services." They have tons of ways to hook you onto the service. Far more sticky than Twitter.
- Robert Scoble
Invest in a company that lost $8 billion from its valuation 16 months ago? No thanks.
- Mark Frost
alphaxion: in 1991 could you have answered that question for Google? No. That's why VC investing is risky.
- Robert Scoble
Robert: 25 million seems small for Facebook, considering their last round was $100M, but of course that is only one VC. Did he tell you how many where in this round?
- Daniel Brusilovsky
Mark: every company has lost billions in values in the past 16 months. That attitude toward investing seems pretty stupid.
- Robert Scoble
Robert - totally agree with the stick factor. My question is how good is the plan to turn lots of users into actual dollars. If that plan is good (in a non-obvious way) I'd invest.
- Brian Roy
Daniel: no, he just told me what he was considering. I'm sure if it's a $6 billion valuation there will be a large pool of folks in there.
- Robert Scoble
Scoble: Good analogy. I'd like to be optimistic about it, but I just feel in my gut that the whole social networking business model still hasn't been perfected. I definitely agree that Facebook will eventually crush Twitter.
- Blake
Brian: you have to read between the lines, but now they are letting brands be full members of the social graph. I see a TON of ways to make money with that.
- Robert Scoble
Brian: here's my audio report from the Facebook announcements this week. http://friendfeed.com/e... -- in there I explain a bit about how I think Facebook will make money.
- Robert Scoble
This doesn't seem like a good idea. $6 billion?! Robert, when you say Facebook's announcement last Thursday are you referring to the new page layout for companies? How much money can that bring in?
- Nidhi Makhija
Robert - agree. But revenue is about execution. So it isn't just seeing how you might/can do it but being able to get to it effectively. That is Google's genius. I'm guessing they have the team/leadership to do it... which is why I'd invest (once I heard the plan).
- Brian Roy
Nidhi: my bet? Over next 10 years? 100's of billions. Look at Google. Facebook is facing an opportunity that's in Google's neighborhood. Of course a lot of implementation is to come and they might not get there. But I see a way that they'll make billions.
- Robert Scoble
If they monetized as well/heavily as Myspace, they would only have $1B revenue. Is he really going to get a 10x return with a $60B exit? Common or preferred?
- Andy Beard
Brian: right. And who is on executive team at Facebook? They are executing pretty damn well. Just go see Sheryl Sandberg. She was an executive at Google and knows the secrets to delivering value.
- Robert Scoble
depends on liquidation prefs, but assuming i got at least 1x preference i'd be an investor for anything south of $10B. at $6B i'd be pretty bullish; that seems like a reasonable number if you look out 3-5 years.
- dave mcclure
A $6 billion valuation would make Facebook more valuable than: Salesforce.com, Sun Microsystems, or NetApp. In fact, you could buy Sun + eTrade + Sirius Radio + TiVo and still have more than a billion in pocket change left over.
- Louis Gray
Not a chance. I'd run screaming from the building before I invested in Facebook. Sticky does not mean profitable. I remember that 1.0 adage "Get the eyeballs first and then monetize". Lots got the eyeballs - few figured out how to monetize.
- AJ Kohn
Andy: the opportunity here is a lot bigger than $1 billion. MySpace is small change compared to what Facebook is going to do.
- Robert Scoble
Andy: When I go to MySpace it tells me NOTHING about my friends' behavior when it comes to other businesses. The social graph is very powerful for businesses. Much better than what MySpace built, which is why key executives are now leaving MySpace.
- Robert Scoble
I would invest. I believe Facebook is the OS for social media and something more. They are the White Pages of the Internet. And with an upside limited only to the imagination.
- Jeff Pulver
Robert - You'd really feel safe investing in a company whose valuation isn't stable though?
- Mark Frost
@Jeff - gawd I hope not .. if that is the case then the net is truly a wasteland
- Steven Hodson
Negative. not at $6bn. We have absolutely no idea what it's worth, let's be honest. Nobody does. It's a straight gamble. I'd prefer spend the cash on buying into cloud-enabling companies like Cisco and server manufacturers, and the best placed players in the cloud ie Google and MS. Maybe...
- john conroy
"going to do" ... Digg, Facebook, Twitter ... they all say they're "going" to figure it out. Show me a profit stream (even a small one) and I'd invest to help scale it but ... until then Cuba Gooding man ... Cuba Gooding.
- AJ Kohn
Mark: that's why it's investing and not a "safe bet." VC is risky. So is buying stocks in companies.
- Robert Scoble
Does anyone know for sure - does Facebook lose money every time they sign up a new user? In other words, is the reason they're raising money because their revenues are not growing to cover the costs of their growth?
- Simon Brocklehurst
...further to my comment above: I guess what I'm really saying is that at $6bn you're talking about a blue-chip, and Facebook isn't a blue chip. It just isn't.
- john conroy
Only tonight I glanced down my 'All Friends' list in Facebook and noticed how many have no status. They have not logged in for 7 days or more. In many cases a lot more. The fascination is on the wane. My money? No chance.
- Darren
Robert: Oh I know that, I'm just speaking as someone with a very light wallet. ^_^
- Mark Frost
Darren: tell me how that is any different from this: http://twitter.com/TechCru... -- I bet your Facebook friends are more engaged with you than these Twitter followers of TechCrunch. Click on 100 followers of Techcrunch. How many have more than one Tweet? 2%? 10%? Not more.
- Robert Scoble
john: Facebook is signing up 700,000 new users PER DAY. They are growing the size of Twitter every 12 days! Blue chip? Absolutely. Just like Google was. (We had the same arguments over Google six years ago).
- Robert Scoble
Sticking the money into GOOG currently would be a better deal, or AMZN - GOOG 2008 revenues were close to $22B http://finance.yahoo.com/q... - based on similar can you see Facebook making $15B yearly revenue? - AMZN is currently worth only 6x gross profit - but then the VC neds to invest his money somewhere, and GOOG and AMZN are not an option - at the end of the day FB is relatively low risk and an easy way to do your job as noone will criticize you for it
- Andy Beard
Andy: you probably said that sticking money into Alta Vista back in 1999 was better than Google. Wrong.
- Robert Scoble
and yet - the fact they are raising money shows that we have not found a revenue model that can cope with the costs they incur - they could self-implode in 1-2 years unless they find an effective route to making break even
- Nick Halstead
Read today in Times magazine an interview with Zuckenberg stating that monetization is not a priority yet while Facebook is not getting break even. By the way, did you notice that the fan pages are changing and look now as profile pages???
- Zack Brandit
Chris: that's wrong. Everyone on my forums were talking about Google in 1999. Google didn't have a business model until 2004.
- Robert Scoble
The problem Facebook has is that people seem to get bored of it. Most people I know are using Facebook less today than they were a year ago. I never saw this pattern with Google.
- Simon Brocklehurst
Scobe: Are you saying that Twitter's model isn't working, so Facebook's will? Twitter v Facebook comparisons are fruitless.
- Darren
Darren: no, I know that Facebook has 175 million who has signed in in the past 30 days. How many does Twitter have?
- Robert Scoble
Chris: OK, I'll grant you the 2003 Google. Same points still hold. You're not feeling it? I look at how addicted my wife is to Facebook (and all her friends). This is the Google of this time.
- Robert Scoble
VC is certainly risky.. but a good VC wouldn't fritter their money away on something that wouldn't give even a little bit of ROI. Otherwise they simply wouldn't be a VC for very long. It's all well and good saying "I can see a lot of ways to make money", but visions and actual money making are 2 different things. So again, please answer the question and say how much they're currently making.
- alphaxion
"Everyone on my forums", is exactly what White said, "hardly anyone" and he is correct.
- coldbrew
I am not saying it is a bad investment, but just imagine Facebook had already IPOed last year, and had managed to figure out their revenue to bring it up to Myspace level, which would then make a $6B valuation on $1B revenue in line with GOOG and AMZN current market valuations. - that isn't necessarily a VC deal - unless they were looking to use the money for a cash purchase of Twitter at a much lower valuation than $500M
- Andy Beard
coldbrew: this whole conversation sounds exactly like the ones we had about Google in 1999-2004.
- Robert Scoble
I seem to remember a company called Netscape was all the rage once.
- Jan Simmonds
@Robert: No, Facebook is not the Google of it's time. Why? Because Google had a very clear business plan. Sell relevant ads on search results. Direct marketers (me) got it and ran with it. It took time to build but it was a clear business plan. Facebook doesn't have that. Unless of course they turn Facebook into a search portal - if they did that then the size and stickiness of the site benefits them. Outside of that, SocNet advertising doesn't seem like a viable business plan.
- AJ Kohn
I have concerns about Google if I'm honest. They too fritter their money away on investments that fizzle out to nothing (look at how many companies they've bought for massive amounts of money), they're limited by the size of the advertising market (think as to why they've been slashing their returns on adwords). Now, their positioning as a content delivery caching network is a far more promising one.
- alphaxion
Robert - "no, I know that Facebook has 175 million who has signed in in the past 30 days. How many does Twitter have? "- you're still doing it! Comparing Facebook favourably to Twitter does not mean Facebook have a good long-term model. I'm not saying they don't, but if a Twitter comparison is the best these dudes can come up with then "I'm out" as they say on Dragons Den. Using your sort of comparison, who is to say that Facebook is now Google 2003, whilst Twitter is Google 2000. Which one has more upside?
- Darren
AJ: you are totally wrong. Google didn't have a clear business model until 2004. I know the guy at Exodus who almost shut down Google because Google couldn't pay its bills.
- Robert Scoble
I think most of you people hang out mostly with technophiles; I do not.
- coldbrew
Chris: I'll never been that rich. I'll buy you a mojito at the Ritz, though!
- Robert Scoble
@Robert: Just because they couldn't pay their bills doesn't mean they didn't have a model or plan. It took time to build the momentum ... the world of search had to 'tip' - and when it did Google was well positioned *because* of their plan. I just don't see that with Facebook. What are they positioning for?
- AJ Kohn
I can say most of my 30-something friends only found FB w/in the last 6 months.
- coldbrew
Facebook fatigue has certainly been kicking in for myself over the last few months whereas as my Twittering has been increasingly steadily; it is just more "useful". That said, they certainly do appear to be functionally converging, so who knows where we'll end up...
- Kevin Bluer
Who cares about Facebook or 6 billion. What are your plans after Fast Company? Is it true they fired you?
- Bruce Curley
Kevin: I can see an argument about why you're right, too. On Gillmor Gang right now is Paul Buchheit of friendfeed and he points out that Twitter's API is far easier to develop on. That ease is turning into all sorts of interesting apps which make Twitter more useful. Well, we'll see. That's why VC is risky.
- Robert Scoble
If I were a VC I would definetly ask for a clear plan of privacy policies before investing. This might be an issue. I would also ask for some guidelines on future updates since FB seems to change its homepage very frequently, which might result in a potential failure.
- denizoktar
Bruce: I was not fired. I resigned my video show to do something else. I still am working part time for Fast Company. I have plans, but will not disclose them in public until SXSW on Monday.
- Robert Scoble
@Robert: BTW - this famous VC you mention ... are *they* investing or not?
- AJ Kohn
AJ: they didn't say, they said they were considering it, but sounded like they were going to the way they were talking.
- Robert Scoble
At this point, I would not invest in anything except gold. Do I sound like a nut? Just check out this video. Actually look at a bunch of his video over the years. Peter Schiff called it all. http://www.youtube.com/watch...
- Dan Cornish
I'll point out again that while VC is an inherently risky business, it's still not a case of blindfold and a dartboard. A real VC would do at least a bit of research and see if they're likely to make a return. If not then they're not a real VC and would either be someone who can afford to lose the money as it's merely a diversion (kinda like how some people will play the lottery) or a fool.
- alphaxion
Dan: Gold and Guns sounds like a good investment strategy over next year. Me? I'd rather be in Facebook, but then I have a front-row seat.
- Robert Scoble
@Robert: Interesting. Always appreciate the information and opinion. I disagree and don't see it myself but ... I've been wrong before. Been right before too though ;)
- AJ Kohn
You all need to read this: http://www.techcrunch.com/2009... Indie Facebook Developers are making over $700,000 per month. Like I said, there were billions and billions here.
- Robert Scoble
Chris: I do not have any compensation or investments coming from or going to Facebook. I was invited to a press conference on Thursday and I have a front row seat because I know many of the players involved and I read a lot of RSS feeds. :-)
- Robert Scoble
how many of the indie developers are making those figures compared to the rest? also, advertising revenues, again, are the core of it. How about revenues that don't involve advertising, as in real and repeat direct spending of the users not the whim of other companies? And of this, how much money are facebook themselves making, since this money fountain could all vanish should facebook itself fold.
- alphaxion
I bet the sum of the people advertising using Adwrods are making more than Google in total as well - the people using Paypal owned by Ebay are most certainly making bank, but for some reason Ebay isn't even worth 2x their revenue. Facebook developers making $700,000 is nice, great return, invest in the app developers if there is longevity.
- Andy Beard
@chris that's my fault.. I called it adwords in a previous comment - that's what 5 beers does to my word association skills! >.<
- alphaxion
coldbrew: sorry, I just fixed it. NO need to keep an error in my comments here.
- Robert Scoble
Was just watching you on TWiT Live, streaming to my 52" TV via my PS3. Look fwd to seeing more of your stuff on TWiT Live in the future Scoble.
- Jason Cartwright
am I the only one who seems to feel a certain air of "ponzi scheme" when your questions are met with answers of "look at these people, they're making money from it" without actually answering your question? And don't think I'm being snarky for snarks sake. I'm really trying to gain an idea of why people are yelling "buy this!" without really backing their claim up beyond "trust us".
- alphaxion
alphaxion: when you are getting 700,000 new people a day you'll figure out a business model, especially since you know so much about each of those people. People who understand media understand the very real value that Facebook is aggregating.
- Robert Scoble
again with the vague "well, we'll figure something out... just keep pumping us with money" answer. It doesn't matter how many new people you are getting onto your service if there's no tangiable sense of where the money to pay for it all is going to come from. It is very similar to youtube. They were burning through cash, plenty of people were saying "it'll make loads of money somehow" and yet google are *still* looking for ways of making it profitable. It's the kind of economics that leads to bubbles.
- alphaxion
there simply aren't enough people that sit down and ask "so, how much money are you making and how much do you project this to grow realistically". Which is the basic tenet on which all companies have been founded upon.
- alphaxion
@scoble... yes, people who understand media understand the real value that Facebook is aggregating, but not if they understand it in the OLD way. if this just turns out to be another advertising play, because they've 2 billion+ eyes, another way to sell people products they don't need, then, hell, I may as well pull the plug and turn Amish... not really, but all of the stuff I've been hearing so far doesn't make be feel confident that FB will end up being anything we haven't already seen... time will tell.
- .LAG liked that
Robert this question sparked such interesting comment you should ask more like this. FB to me is a fad unless they buy Twitter which with Twitter Search could be a new Google. Agree with Chris White MS-Facebook is a likely outcome. Google must acquire Twitter before Vodafone wise up. Keep leading the debate Rob.
- Thomas Power
What are they spending all that money on? Or is just banking money to survive the future?
- Brian Sullivan
@chris actually, I'd say google was all about weaving themselves into the sites they lead you to and the apps you use to access this info. Having dealt with administrating systems, it's scary just how many apps and system builders integrate their toolbar and desktop apps and how many sites use their services that then collect data on the visitors/users. A question I don't see asked and answered often enough is "why?"
- alphaxion
@ChrisWhite I certainly meant Adwords not Adsense - people advertise to make money (well unless they are Auto manufacturers) - I look on the Facebook App platform in many ways as an advertising platform, though the transaction that takes place between Facebook and the App developers isn't currently a financial one. Maybe things would be different if Facebook had their "FacePal" payment...
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- Andy Beard
Chris: that's an interesting question. CEOs should never say never when it comes to future business decisions.
- Robert Scoble
Social networking seems like a commodity to me. Glorified address book + activity stream. Long term, why is it likely that one company will continue to command a proprietary premium on this? Do we not forget the staggering claims for these companies made doing the last bubble? Lots of similar claims by many companies in the 90s about # of user signups, stickiness, etc. If social networking platforms are so valuable, they're gonna get commodified. Wordpress isn't the only way to host RSS now is it?
- Ray Cromwell
I can feel a Metcalf's law retort coming. :) It's like Godwin, but for business model debates.
- Ray Cromwell
Chris: really? I don't agree with you. If you can survive through a depression you'll come out of it with rocket burners on. Google gained steam through the dotcom bust. Facebook is gaining steam through this downturn.
- Robert Scoble
Chris: agreed. Facebook is not going to have an IPO this year. I can assure you of that. The investors will keep them going for two more years at minimum.
- Robert Scoble
@Robert: You're thinking "aggregated rich user data" is going to be the Facebook gold mine? Advertisers and brands I chat with think it's of marginal value. Big brands already have deep databases with multiple reporting lines. Prizm data gets you 75% of the way there most of the time. Facebook might be another reporting line but it's not going to be a game changer. Search re-targeting has more value IMO.
- AJ Kohn
@AJ .. I would have to agree with you. Just think of all the data that things like those Air Miles cards collect, or credit card companies or even national brand shopping cards ... one would think that the data collected that way would be a lot more valuable than anything that FB could produce. Makes one almost think that this whole Social Media as a marketer and advertising goldmine might not turn out to be Fool's Gold
- Steven Hodson
Nope, two reasons. First, I won't invest unless I agree with the core mission of the company. Second, FB may do well in its early times after going public, but it's not at all clear to me that it will be a great company in the 5-10 year range.
- LogEx
@Steven: Exactly! Air Miles. Grocery Cards. Credit Cards. Warranty Information. Rebate Information. (You'd be amazed how many people register their stuff!) It's a bit scary what can be obtained from credit bureaus as well. Facebook is the corner, the stoop - it's where people stop to talk and shoot the breeze. Not much gets sold there. I need to connect with them when they're walking past the mall.
- AJ Kohn
Think about the data a company like Mint.com or Quicken Online collects and compare it to the data that FB has on spending patterns and interests. They know enough (but currently don't use this info) to definitively tell you that you're spending $50 a month on BlockBuster, and could reduce it to $20 a month if you change to Netflix, saving you $30.
- Ray Cromwell
How many more rounds of funding would you expect? It seems like you might get washed out by later rounds.
- Todd Hoff
Everything you hear lately makes it sound like he's had to change that point of view about $15b if he wants capital.
- Hutch Carpenter
Great discussion. Some points: the "No one can monetize this space" argument is false. As an advertiser (and a top 3 one at that), We are. And, quite well. #2--However, I wouldn't discount MySpace just yet. FaceBook is a wonderful white pages, it's possible MySpace will be a wonderful Yellow pages. We'll see. $6B is steep, but one difference this data has from the others mentioned (credit cards, gas cards, etc) is it's voluntarily provided--which is a much different data stream.
- Alan Edgett
I would, in an instant. Many Facebook apps alone have 10 times the number of users Twitter has.
- Jesse Stay
If they gave me a way to keep certain people unaware of my presence, I'd go back
- Aaman (Clone of FF)
If I had the choice, I would rather invest in LinkedIn. Facebook has a phenomenal growth there are still a lot of open questions: You talk about businesses creating pages in facebook. This is probably a good idea in the sort term but in the long term as a company you probably want more control and ownership over your community and like AOL had to open up the walled garden, Facebook will have to do it to or someone else with do it for them. In that more open world, monetizing the graph will become even harde
- Edwin Khodabakchian
Interesting. Most seasoned entrepreneurs will tell you funding isn't an ideal expansion, that multiple rounds is not a good sign. Means it isn't making money. Social networks are nothing more than message boards with different user features - and have always been very hard to monetize. New competition is coming fast into the market from places none of y'all are looking at, and we're...
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- Patricia
Patricia: Google had multiple rounds. So did many other big Silicon Valley companies.
- Robert Scoble
Chris: I know all about dilution. The reason Zuckerberg is so smart is he's taken a few rounds without getting diluted much at all. Got $300 million from Microsoft and only gave up, what, 1% or so of Facebook? That's brilliant.
- Robert Scoble
Robert, yes, i know. it can be an asset. it just depends on if they can find a way to make money. google found it. let's hope facebook does too. i root for all businesses to succeed!
- Patricia
still all I am seeing is the taking of money with no idea on how it'll generate money back, which is the whole point of investment. It seems to be the whole mantra of web apps "get users, then figure out how to make money" instead of the way every other industry functions. Do you really think this is a lasting way of doing business or will the web have to mature and show they can make money with their creations before investors will part with large sums of money?
- alphaxion
when thinking about it, it is a particularly Valley way of doing business - I don't see this kind of investment internationally, they demand to see what will happen with their money and how it is likely to generate its own revenue instead of going cap in hand back to the investors.
- alphaxion
and I do agree that this way of investing does lead to some really innovative things that ordinarily wouldn't stand a chance of making it. But, it is a big concern that the sites can't stand on their own without VC's propping them up by pouring round after round into them with nothing more than "it's gonna be huge!" as the reason. It'll only ever be huge if a cogent business plan exists, otherwise the only huge thing will be the bill VC's nurse at the end of it.
- alphaxion
Interesting to note Apple could pony up $6 billion for Facebook and still have some $18 billion left over.
- Mike Reynolds
@Mike .. maybe so but if there is one thing you can say about Steve Jobs is that he is a smart businessman who doesn't like to lose money
- Steven Hodson
well i would not invest, fb has been for sometime now in a few years what ever profit could be made should have been made by now, the next big idea will kill fb forever, with the investment totally sunked in
- briandsouza
UPDATE on this: Investors in Facebook are telling friends of mine that Facebook is not raising another round. It's possible that this is an opportunity that's being offered by someone who has stock already and is looking to get out. I'll try to find out more and report back.
- Robert Scoble
Robert - whoa, "someone ... looking to get out." wow. yes, more info please. What is their rationale?
- Susan Beebe
I wouldn't. I would rather invest in something simpler like twitter or friendfeed.
- Siddharth Mitra
Interesting that the round is at $6 Billion. I heard that Facebook are supposedly only accepting external investors providing they are investing at the valuation of Microsofts investment.
- Nicholas James
One good thing about doing lists of FriendFeeders ... I'm learning all about who I'm missing! The list is getting better and better by the minute and so is my feed. Thank you and sorry to those cool people I left off originally.
I think there are so many great people on friendfeed that a few are gonna fall through the cracks :) heck i just posted a message and bang I was on the list hehe
- (jeff)isageek
I do absolutely nothing except that which is awesome. OK, not really.
- Josh Haley
You don't have enough Mark's on the list :)
- Mark Krynsky
Yeah, you list has a lot of people who don't FF.
- Ryan
Yes robert, you forgot me for example :)
- Alemsah Ozturk
Alemsah: probably because a lot of your posts aren't in English.
- Robert Scoble
But if you were to add another Mark I'd be a good choice. "Web producer for X PRIZE Foundation and author of Lifestream Blog" would make for a nice description :)
- Mark Krynsky
I'll add spin when I get home. Same with you Mark.
- Robert Scoble
By splitting my peeps into lists that do not overlap, I get a lot more good stuff floating to the top of each list. But I have to click on several separate lists, so my clicking muscles are getting tired.
- Laura Norvig
Robert, I am loving the lists so much, I have almost ceased real twitter usage (letting FF and my blog plugin handle the rest)...
- Ken Stewart | ChangeForge
Wow, I totally didn't notice that Mark Krynsky wasn't on the list. Robert, if you have not already done so, I think Charlie Anzman deserves a spot as well. I did not check the list again, but I remember you missing Susan Beebe as well. And I almost forgot, thanks for adding me to the list :)
- Rob Diana
Another Mark for the list would be Mark Dykeman of broadcastingbrain.com and a contributor at Mashable. Also, how are you coming up with the descriptions of the people? That is a cool little addition.
- Rob Diana
Great list! Thanks. Anyway you could time stamp new ones? I don't want to miss anyone.
- WiseYoda (aka Patrick)
Nice... At least now I know who's who.
- Winston Teo
دکتر خودتو به رابرت چی کار داری، حالا ما یه بار گفتیم ماست فقط ماست گوسفند. میلادم گفت پرسپولیس سرور استقلاله و رابرتو پرسپولیسی کرد. تو چی کار کردی واسه رابرت؟
- فوهاد صا.
Robert Please Repeat After Me : PERSPOLIS SARVARE ESTEGHLALE (it mean perspolis fc is better than esteghlal fc ) ضمنا بعدش بگو داور دقت کن
- Mil∂d
I'm not sad that I didn't make the list. Nope, not at all... *sniff* ;-)
- Josh Bancroft
Robert how do you follow topics at the moment? At a certain point it gets hard to follow more friends and at that point i'd think you need to narrow focus? (or not?)
- Steven Livingstone-Pérez
Josh: I don't know how I missed you. Weblivz: I just refresh FF hundreds of times a day.
- Robert Scoble
Rob: most of the descriptions are off the top of my head or from their Twitter bios.
- Robert Scoble
Daniel I did see your listing. I see many possibilities in FF but need to increase my own activity. Different channels bring both same and new information. There isn't that many people working with all the tools. The same names or IDs appear in Jaiku, Facebook, Twitter, Pownce, FriendFeed, etc.
- Helge V. Keitel
just wondering .. did I get lett off? wait if I have to ask I probably know already eh? lol
- John Blanton
from twhirl
Yeah Robert, I am not techie enough? ;-) Consider me as one of the most techie guys who use FriendFeed oversea.
- Leon Ho
@Scoble - Refreshing hundreds of times a day works i guess when it's part of your job, Much harder when you just want to follow "stuff" with limited time. Thanks for replying.
- Steven Livingstone-Pérez
weblivz: that's exactly why I created a list with fewer people on it. I have about 200 on the techie list. 3,400 on the main list.
- Robert Scoble
*shunned!* I thought I'd make the cut on Scoble's techie list! I thought I talked enough tech to make the grade ;)
- Susan Beebe
"little wonder. I watched it from Ireland-- it's the only 'Football' game I watch all year, as I've too many other sports to keep track of... But last year's was amazing, and if anything this year's was even better."
- john conroy
"How do TechCrunch stories make it to Digg's front page so often? With a little help from its friends, of course. Former TechCrunch writer Duncan Riley, now a foe of editor Michael Arrington, posted a screenshot from his inbox revealing what Riley calls "The TechCrunch Digg Club." It includes four writers from TechCrunch proper; seven from gadgets blog CrunchGear; two from TechCrunchIT, Arrington's incomprehensible enterprise-tech spinoff; plus two or three interns."
- Igor The Troll יִצְחָק
from Bookmarklet
Holy crap! If that is true and diggs team knows that, I think techcrunch url maybe banned/punished.
- k00pa
No, TechCrunch URL certainly won't be banned, no way, really. We have been banned once and I know it does not happen to sites like TC.
- Svetlana Gladkova
from twhirl
I wonder if Kevin will ban TechCrunch for a few days to get some hype for Digg? He definitely will get some PR out of this! LMAO
- Igor The Troll יִצְחָק
you can actually buy diggs -- i 4get the website but you pay $20 plus 1$ per digg.
- john conroy
@john: Really? You mean you really-really can buy diggs? That's an amazing surprise to me!
- Svetlana Gladkova
from twhirl
gregory: It's just that I've seen tons of places and people trying to sell diggs. But it is just so obvious that all these patterns are penalized that I am surprised anyone still bothers.
- Svetlana Gladkova
from twhirl
i happen to submit there stuff to digg, but thats b/c i like it. interesting stuff, will look into it.
- Leximo
This should be no surprise, all the big players are starting to do this. Chicago Tribune employs a Digg spam force.
- John Wesley
@John - shouldn't it mean social bookmarking is on its sunset boulevard?
- Markingegno - Donato
Markingegno - Donato: that is a very interesting metaphor
- Noah David Simon
"Could be a way for this thing to work -- shutting down GB i mean. I wonder if Obama's people put the word out looking for a Gov to offer a deal like this in return for some kind of cushy trade deal etc.? Well done Portugal in any case."
- john conroy
Brian: the quality should start going up soon. Especially if you uploaded 720P stock.
- Robert Scoble
At last a great use for my Kodak Zi6. Huge difference from my old Flip.
- Christine Dattilo
NEWS FLASH! Winer and Scoble agree! Skating now open on Crystal Spring Resevoir! But I guess I would have to be a bigger video creator/user to really care that deeply.
- Stephen Pierzchala
I don't think I've seen anyone use the facebook video on my list. I think youtube should get off their arses and do something similar, though.
- Terry O'Fee
This is probably very naive, but I just don't understand how companies can handle storage for media like this. Millions of users (I know only a fraction will) upload HD quality video. I don't get it. And I just got my customized Flip Mino (decided no HD because of file size). http://twitpic.com/qghk
- Leif Hansen
@drew thats what im saying, video hosting with stats is worthless to content producers and ego maniacs!
- sean percival
Now I really need to go to the beauty parlor instead of the barber! Google Connect/FB Connect YTube HD/FB HD. The big guys know recession means sharp elbows in the paint!
- Ed Shahzade /NextInstinct
this guys hair was SOOOO made for HD
- sean percival
I like Vimeo a lot. No one uploads any video to Facebook. I've seen 1 video from my friends on Facebook. Posting video from other sites though, that's becoming more common. Too bad the only videos posted are SNL sketches.
- Will Higgins™
Actually I heard it on Twitter first. :D :D :P
- Bwana ☠
interesting how the story appears to be only on scobles blog and techcrunch hmm
- Allen Stern
Yup, I wasn't actually the only one with the news here. I have the only video. This is the first time I've agreed to a nondeterminant exclusive. We only knew a few minutes ago that the news would go out now. Rocky woke me up in London to get the news posted.
- Robert Scoble
This one is a yawner for me. Youtube going HD was much more significant.
- Bwana ☠
hahah. facebook is good to link for other services...
- Terry O'Fee
Now Robert, I thought Facebook had kicked you off their platform a while back. Oh, but they let you back I see...
- Leif Hansen
not what i meant robert - more that it seemed like more usual outlets would have the news as well - i have never received facebook news but wondering why the other valley bloggos dont have it... as bwana notes, not really a huge deal - especially since we know facebook has no idea how to monetize (see my post yesterday)
- Allen Stern
Allen: it's because of the weird embargo. I had to agree to hold the news until they told us we could talk. Most news people wouldn't agree to that. Also, Facebook didn't want news to leak so they went with only a few people they had personal relationships with. I've known Chris Putnam since he was 16, so that's why I was included.
- Robert Scoble
Bwana: I agree that YouTube getting HD is more significant, but this is pretty major too. Also, Facebook lets you upload 20 minutes. YouTube only 10.
- Robert Scoble
you also need to log in to see facebook content. not such a big deal these days but youtube links you can just click on no matter which computer you are on...
- Terry O'Fee
Terry: that is not true anymore. If videos on Facebook are shared with everyone you do not need to log in to see them anymore.
- Robert Scoble
this is so cool. add video chat capability, live streaming video, and this thing might get as big or bigger than youtube, considering the huge userbase facebook has.
- Rahul Krishnakumar
well, that's handy then. good to know. having the option to just click on a link and instantly watching the vid is alright by me.
- Terry O'Fee
I don't see it as major because Facebook's video community is virtually non-existent. Had they opened up video to non-Facebook users a year ago and THEN added HD today, it may be different. There's a ton of competition in this field, and it's a steep hill to climb. I will be very surprised if we're even talking about Facebook HD video 3 months from now.
- Bwana ☠
Lots of our customers are beta testing our 1080p video support - http://twurl.nl/e4kxby - so make sure to holler if you want your SmugMug account beta enabled. (I'd guess we're only a few days away from enabling it for all our Pros - but you can still play with it first)
- Don MacAskill
(That message was for anyone - not [just] Robert)
- Don MacAskill
Are they upscaling (or something) SD content to 720p? Every video I watch has an option to "View in Regular Quality" regardless of the source.
- Robert Yocum
Robert: if you upload a video with 720p then it does NOT upscale. If you upload lower quality, though, it does. Don: you guys rock. I so want a new Canon 5D.
- Robert Scoble
Robert It seems YouTube has three view qualities now, but only offers two choices per video. If the source is not uploaded in HD you get a choice of "normal" or "high." But if the source is HD (720p) you get a choice of "normal" or "HD"
- Michael Markman
Lowest cost route into making HD videos: the Flip Mino HD. (street ~$200) They're going to get a nice fat sales bump
- Michael Markman
"With catalysts created by an MIT chemist, sunlight can turn water into hydrogen. If the process can scale up, it could make solar power a dominant source of energy."
- ~C4Chaos
Hard Times is probably one of the first hip hop songs I memorized.
- DO ANYBODY NO MONIQUE
from IM
I don't remember which, exactly was first, but the first three I bought were LL Cool J's Bigger and Deffer, Run DMC's Raising Hell and LA Dream Team's Kinds of the West Coast...I'm pretty sure I bought all three on cassette tape.
- Alex Scoble
Bone Thugs-n-Harmony - The Art of War. I still have it. Akiva laughs about it because I'm seriously the whitest girl to ever live yet I know the lyrics to many, many BTnH songs.
- Rochelle
:D I still love stuff like Blackalicious and Jurassic 5.
- Rochelle
true story, i knew jurassic 5 when they were two separate rap groups. Good Life cafe in LA for the mother fucking win. I saw so many hip hop acts come up in that environment.
- DO ANYBODY NO MONIQUE
from IM
Monique, I'm jealous! I've never gone to hip hop shows even though I love the music because I feel so out of place. I just rock out at home. :)
- Rochelle
Rochelle - never feel out of place. hip hop is for all people.
- DO ANYBODY NO MONIQUE
from IM
The new release from the Beastie Boys, Licensed to Ill. On Vinyl. Still have it.
- Aaron Baer
"So long the territory of red-nosed men, the wine industry now abounds with successful women. But are they innately better at tasting, as some claim? Susy Atkins meets female buyers, blenders and sommeliers to find out"
- RAPatton
from Bookmarklet
"However, Steve Pearce, who has been creating perfumes and flavours for 30 years, says there is some evidence that women are more attuned to smell than men. 'If you look at my industry's research it suggests that women can be more sensitive to lower levels of scent than men,' he says. And he thinks women are particularly good at describing the experience. 'Women can take a smell and...
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- RAPatton
"And what about the dreaded glass ceiling? Surely it exists in wine, as everywhere else? Dee Blackstock thinks many women wine buyers choose to remain in their jobs rather than rise up through retail management. 'Buying wine is the best job of all. You are master of your own destiny,' she says. This, despite the fact she still gets regular emails and letters addressed to 'Mr...
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- RAPatton
I wonder if there are subtle differences in what makes a good wine for a man, and whether its slightly different for a woman.
- john conroy
I got a stack overflow error, though it seemed to work anyway.
- Paul Sharrock
Mark, I wanted to be specific on this one to force choices, but I'm sure there are many others. I also should have added RSS as well. That's actually where I get most of my Tech news.
- Jesse Stay
from twhirl
Google Reader and FriendFeed, primarily. Then My Yahoo! or Drudge, to be honest.
- Louis Gray
Jesse: sure, but as you offered, there are problems with a forced choice. I'm not sure what conclusions you could come up with from this survey if an option like RSS/feed aggregation is removed.
- Mark Trapp
techmeme. my readwriteweb subscription. digg technology -- tho its slow for obvious reasons.
- john conroy
Tech news? I usually overhear stuff here...I guess I should actually start following stuff. lol
- Rahsheen ™, Coach of FF
As my son and I were walking through the grocery store parking lot this morning, a duck walked right up to us - within a foot of my feet - and wanted noms. When I opened up my purse to put away my keys, he very literally wagged his little tail. I felt so bad that I didn't have anything for him!
"The first ever electrically powered vehicle designed especially for wheelchair users will become available in the UK during the second half of 2008."
- Christopher Harley
from Bookmarklet
Rochelle, I just had this idea of a "car driven by wheelchair", meaning a lot of arm pumping the wheels to make it go forward. Oh well, it was funny in my own mind.
- Rob H.
There should be no limit to the number of blogs? If the measurement is artificial, such as those that would get revenue, that's a different question, of course. But why limit the number of journals or diaries out there?
- Louis Gray
one for every psychotic technology obsessive. Keeps us off the streets.
- john conroy
I don't really see it as a problem, because it is very easy to just ignore a blog that you don't care about or doesn't have much relevance to anything.
- Mathew™ one of a kind
Michael Kinsley -- little of interest to say about cutting-edge information technology. He doesn't get it. How to deal with information overload in the blogosphere: find the smartest people who are blogging about the topics that most interest you. Focus on their best posts. Not a big deal.
- Sean McBride
Time sucks. What a stupid idea for an article.
- Patricia
How many books/songs/poems do we really need, come to think of it?
- Chris Baskind
I was gonna construct a comment and switch "Blogs" with stuff like "Musicians" and "Mechanics", but now I see it's not worth the effort.
- Rahsheen ™, Coach of FF