If conservatives were serious about being conservative, SCOTUS would totally uphold marriage equality. Keep in mind that Ted Olson is arguing on the side of the good guys for that very reason. My hope - and prediction - is that we'll get a 5-4 split with Roberts, the wimminz and Breyer, since the Four Horsemen are not conservatives - they're reactionary ideologues in thrall to GOP ideologues, who are also not conservatives. The judicially correct decision would be 8-1: Scalito, the true conservatives, Kennedy, an enigma with a brain and the four liberals, versus Thomas, who is an idiot (never talks, rarely writes) married to a GOP lobbyist. - Mary B: #TeamMonique

For what it's worth, Kennedy has shown himself to be more open to arguments for gay rights than the other conservative justices, as with his opinion in Lawrence v. Texas. So if DOMA or Prop 8 get struck down, he's the most likely deciding vote. The other four seem more deeply committed to social conservatism, though I'm not sure if Roberts and Alito have had a chance to rule on LGBTQ issues yet. - John (bird whisperer)