An observational study on Experts and Prediction. We have to keep this in mind regarding our Philippine power markets. - http://herd.typepad.com/herd_th...
"Rod - You mean with the types of procurements that PG&E has been coming out with subsequent to 2001? It's possible. There are some striking similarities and yet some significant differences in their situations. It'll be interesting to see what Meralco does and when. Their Transition Supply Contract with Napocor expires December 2011. It's roughly 1,500 MW. One of the things I have to keep prodding myself to keep in mind from the perspective of markets and practices is that what didn't work in or wasn't appropriate for California may indeed work in or be appropriate for the Philippines. There's only a few brilliant thinkers in the Philippine power sector to help us piece this together. Fortunately for me, one of them is my partner."
- Nick in Manila
Years ago the Philippine broadcaster ABS-CBN designed (and apparently built) a super efficient office building in Quezon City. At the time, based on the building design and DOE-2 modeling it would have been a stand-out efficient building anywhere in the world. A report on it said: Aside from the ADB Building, there are no existing buildings that can be considered intelligent buildings. The reason is economics: building administrators, building owners, developers, and architects need to prove that incorporating such energy efficient technologies could significantly save energy and thereby reduce building operating and maintenance costs. So far, the only exception is the ongoing construction of the ABS-CBN Broadcasting Building, currently under construction. The 15-story building, designed to house commercial offices and technical/broadcasting facilities, will feature energy efficient technologies, namely: building energy management, to reduce electrical power load for the building from...
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- Nick in Manila
"Tom - I'd LOVE to negotiate on behalf of rate payers - generally that means negotiating on behalf of the distribution utility off-takers. But by and large they do not seek help from me or anybody else. More often than not, I'm working the other side - advising the IPPs on pricing. Frankly, that's not the best use of my experience because it's the buy-side parties who are, in most cases, out-gunned and who will need to do the innovating (away from the regulated PPA environment) - the IPPs are not going to drive it. Most of the Kepco plant's capacity appears to be under PPA - multiple, long-term PPAs with different distribution companies. I understand that there is still some portion of the capacity that is not covered by long-term PPA. Your observations are all good. The buyers are taking most of the risks. My opinion is that it's because contracts are still highly influenced by the older contracts that existed prior to restructuring when the buyer was the state which could assume such..."
- Nick in Manila