"Within days of the March low, Jeremy published "Reinvesting While Terrified," in which he observed that it was time to bet the farm. He soon called for a stimulus-fueled rally that would take the S&P 500 to 1000-1100, which is where we are now. He also laid out his expectation that the market would then move sideways for 7 years. Well, we've hit the high of Jeremy's sucker's rally prediction. Stocks are now once again significantly overvalued (Jeremy puts the overvaluation at 25%, with fair value on the S&P 500 at 860). He thinks the market can go a bit higher but that it will break down next year. He's looking for a "painful" pullback of at least 20%. A new low is not likely, but not out of the question."
- Paul Buchheit
from Bookmarklet
It seems like a lot of the gains we've been seeing in the stock market lately have been on weakness of the dollar, rather than a great improvement in economic conditions. So the stock market isn't gaining in value, it's just that the beans that are used to value it are getting smaller.
- Cristo
The market is not sustainable at 10% unemployment, the quarterlys were based on lay-offs not earnings and with no money being spent on mainstreet ie christmas shopping sideways' would be lucky'
- WarLord
We'll see. Tops are much tougher to predict than bottoms. There are many people calling for a major sell-off here, which means it probably won't happen.
- Rob Hoeting