Paul Graham

Actually, the bubble-tea revolution in Silicon Valley was started by Silicon Valley engineer importing a drink from Taiwan. :-) So was Jamba Juice, which was funded by one of the Silicon Valley VC firms. - Piaw Na

I thought it started on the East Coast first (imported from Taiwan). Now there seems to be another bubble-tea-like phenomena coming from Taiwan or Asia, these 'make your own yogurt' shops - Ray Cromwell

the irony is to build the cloud we need to be physically close to each other. hence, the cloud is more than one generation away. it takes a social shift which isn't happening. - xyz

Well, those Taiwanese startups were never VC funded. :-) Jamba Juice is the real story here. But yeah, food startups are rare, because it's rare for them to experience the kind of hypergrowth you see in technology. - Piaw Na

Page and Brin are cited as examples of startup productivity. That's just bad statistics. Most startups go belly up. Innovation comes out of large companies or institutions too (Xerox PARC, CERN). Like the "best schools are small" fallacy, looking at exceptional cases is not very helpful to understand a phenomenon. - Antonio Piccolboni

Don't highly specialized visa types like this pose a real risk of abuse by the sponsors? Personally I consider the H-1B visa to be a form of modern indentured servitude: your right to be in the country is tied to a specific job at a specific employer, giving that employer enormous leverage. The employer is required to pay the "prevailing" wage... but the prevailing wage always seems to be the very bottom of the scale. A visa tied to an investment gives the investors a lot more power over the entrepreneur. - DGentry

there's also a very real problem of the type of startup. is a restaurant one? what about a laundromat? - Piaw Na

Denton, because of the American Competitiveness in the the 21st century act passed under the Clinton administration, which allows visa portability, that leverage has not disappeared but is much reduced. The problem is the sponsorship for the green card: that really binds you to an employer for several years. - Antonio Piccolboni

@Denton I don't know any of my friends at msft, amzn, goog and startups who are indentured. All of them have multiple job offers all the time, are making way north of 100k and love what they're doing. Don't form opinions based on crap you read on stale news websites (or on TV). Meet a few people and form your own opinion. Yes, I am on h1b too, and don't really care if I don't have one. Its a flat world and smart people can work from anywhere (yes anywhere != usa). US rocks but smart people are everywhere! - Sumit Chachra

http://www.american.com/archive... - "The Start-Ups We Don't Need" ... Just throwing it in. - Andrew C

this reminded me of "make things for other people" vs "make things for yourself" - if you make things for other people it isn't part of your identity and you can't defend choices to yourself emotionally - paulm

PG: "More generally, you can have a fruitful discussion about a topic only if it doesn't engage the identities of any of the participants." -- Thus if everyone became 'selfless' (in the Buddhist sense ;-) we can all discuss everything with detachment. :-} Thanks, Paul, your essay also has ramifications for peaceful negotiations. - Adriano

I agree that in principle, "being a scientist...doesn't commit you to believing anything in particular". However, in practice a great many scientists act as if it commits them to fundamentalist materialism. Thus they still manage to get the psychic comfort that comes with every kind of fundamentalism, of thinking that the worldview they subscribe to is the only reasonable one. - Ruchira S. Datta

I like that term, "fundamentalist materialism" :) - Paul Buchheit

@Paul, I'm not sure who coined it--it may have been Robert Anton Wilson. - Ruchira S. Datta

The problem with the three major monotheistic religions is that they demand exclusion of other belief systems, and basically damn non-believers. You cannot have real co-existence and mutual respect on this basis. - Paul Denlinger

@Paul Denlinger, demanding exclusion of other belief systems is a characteristic of every kind of fundamentalism, e.g., free-market fundamentalism. It's true that the concept of damnation is limited to the religions you're referring to. (Actually, does Judaism damn non-believers?) But belief in damnation is not even a necessary characteristic of religion, per se, let alone of fundamentalism. I think it's fundamentalism that Paul Graham is warning against here. - Ruchira S. Datta

@Ruchira, I don't buy the attempt to redefine fundamentalism to somehow explain something (or anything) about science. Fundamentalism is the belief that sacred texts are literally true in their entirety. This term doesn't mean anything outside of the domain of religion, e.g. in science, where there no sacred texts, nor even any 'texts' at all; if you're lucky maybe some text files. Stepping back a bit, religion is about faith; science is about questioning. - j1m

@j1m, from the Random House Webster's Unabridged Dictionary: "fundamentalism. 3. strict adherence to any set of basic ideas or principles: *the fundamentalism of the extreme conservatives* [1920-25, Amer.; FUNDAMENTAL + ISM]." - Ruchira S. Datta

Wait a second... you're arguing that online discussions of JavaScript don't degenerate into religious arguments? Ok, I see that you address that question later on. But "keep your identity small" feels a little like begging the question to me, in as much as one's identity is defined by all of one's thoughts and beliefs. Should you keep your thoughts and beliefs small? - Jim Norris

@j1m, my comments referred to some scientists, not to science. The fact that a group of people practices science doesn't mean that everything they believe is science. Moreover, questioning is a very important part of some religions. - Ruchira S. Datta

@Jim, I interpreted Paul as saying one should view one's own beliefs with a degree of detachment, i.e., keep an open mind. Not identifying with one's thoughts and beliefs is very tricky in practice, but it can be quite freeing. - Ruchira S. Datta

And how is one supposed to discuss important controversial issues without one's beliefs becoming part of one's identity? People choose sides on questions about economic recovery plans or anthropogenic global warming because they feel like those issues matter and Bronze Age battles don't, but I'd bet that archaeologists are just as religiously divided and sectarian about Bronze Age battles as the rest of us are about politics. - Jim Norris

@Jim, one should sharpen one's own viewpoint as far as possible, but once one closes one's mind there's no room to let new knowledge in. Philip Tetlock in _Expert Political Judgment_ found that "foxes" who were flexible in their thinking made better predictions than "hedgehogs" who were stuck to an ideology. - Ruchira S. Datta

I think this has a kernel of truth to it, but why are religion and politics, rather than baking preferences and JavaScript interpreters, core parts of identity? Religion and politics are both areas in which the questions are critically important and yet people have very little individual power to influence the situation. An online discussion is more likely to lead to a more concise script or a tastier cake than a more effective plan for either economic stimulus or salvation. - Jim Norris

@Ruchira there's a reason why that dictionary spends 11 lines giving the real definition and 3 lines giving the definition you use. The other dictionaries I own don't even list the meaning you refer to. Calling any old person who passionately holds some belief a fundamentalist means about as much as calling any old riot cop a fascist. More to the point, the distinction really matters:... more... - j1m

@Ruchira: +1 for mentioning that book, I stumbled on it in the "Google Library" years ago. I think I agree with you; still, aren't most new and innovative ideas generally first advanced by ideologues? (Or is it time to do more reading?) - Jim Norris

@Jim, wait, innovative ideas, idealogues, wtf? example? - j1m

Scratch that, I don't know what I was thinking. - Jim Norris

I mean, there was that gmail thing created by idealogical ajaxian Paul Buchheit - j1m

This is actually a really bizarre essay. Isn't the idea that you should actively shrink your identity really weird? Would that ever work? And while I personally really enjoy discussing politics, and indeed, with the right people, arguing about it, if you read a lot of, say, javascript discussion groups that keep degenerating into off-topic political arguments, shouldn't you stop reading them? This doesn't seem like something you want to make your problem. - j1m

If we were serious about Religious and Political discourse we'd require our children to learn it in school. If you're taught by Jesuits you have a shot, if you go to a public school, you're screwed - john schneider from twhirl

Also, isn't the key thing religious and political debates have in common that they're debates about what's moral? It hardly seems like you need to drag 'identity' into the picture to explain why people have strong opinions about morality. - j1m

Well, not all political debates explicitly involve morality... maybe the lesson to take from this is that discussion has limited utility, particularly in the absence of empirical evidence, and that being attached to certain ideas as a part of your identity doesn't help. - Jim Norris

@j1m, the idea that a dictionary definition doesn't count because it's short is new to me. Is "Islamic fundamentalism" a contradiction in terms? I'm using "fundamentalism" to describe rigidity on the part of believers, not any particular belief. The key thing about religious and political debates is there's no way to settle them. The question of the best method for reconstructing evolutionary history also can't be settled, so phylogenetics is just as contentious. - Ruchira S. Datta

@Jim, yes, I got the Tetlock book when he came to Google. Most innovative ideas come from unexpected associations. See, e.g., _The Creative Brain_ and _The Origins of Genius: Darwinian Perspectives on Creativity_. - Ruchira S. Datta

I'll buy the religion argument, but some of the most creative people I know are passionate about politics. - Phil Boiarski

@Phil, I know creative people who are passionate about religion too. Firstly, I didn't mean to imply all creative people are open-minded about everything. The creativity comment was a bit of a tangent prompted by Jim Norris's retracted thought. Secondly, passion and open-mindedness are not mutually exclusive. - Ruchira S. Datta

I see the idea that it's even possible to be detached from one's own thoughts and beliefs is not uncontroversial. Adriano's comment above is apropos: there are books with step-by-step instructions on how to do so, through meditation. _The Fine Arts of Relaxation, Concentration, and Meditation_ is one. _Emotional Alchemy_ is another. This explains specifically how not to identify with one's thoughts and beliefs, focusing on those that fall into maladaptive patterns called schemas. - Ruchira S. Datta

This rings true on so many levels. In particular, we easily spend half the price of our product just on selling it to the people who want it. - Gabe

Piaw, car manufacturers don't have to build multiple instances of a production ready vehicle and crash-test it for *every* change, nor do non-critical changes (paint colors, UI changes) ever have to be crash-tested. Frequently, software developers are forced to get approval for things that could be released immediately, or at least tested on the live system with A/B testing. This forces systems to be built for graceful recovery from failures, a more robust approach. - Michael R. Bernstein

Oh, and in any case, PG's post was about disproportionately expensive tests and tests with hidden costs, like approval processes. I'm pretty sure the developer group he was talking about have a comprehensive test-suite for their system, so it's not like they were talking about immediately releasing untested code, just *unapproved* code. - Michael R. Bernstein

off-topic quote ;-) 'If you want to build a ship, don‘t drum up the men to gather wood, divide the work and give orders. Instead, teach them to yearn for the vast and endless sea.' -Antoine de Saint-Exupery - Adriano

Just about everyone working at a software company of any size would agree that this is a real phenomenon, and Graham does a good job of pointing out why it occurs, and what purpose it serves (i.e. it's important to weigh both benefits and costs of process). I believe the only way to avoid unnecessary process is for everyone in the company to push back, and to have a culture where asking for forgiveness rather than permission is acceptable. - Joel Webber

Mike, I'm not proposing that dot coms start having massive approval processes, just that it's not appropriate for software when people's lives (or financial balances) are involved. Intel's recall for a floating point problem cost way more than having effective testing would have. Of course, I'm an anachronism these days --- concern about reliability is so old fashioned. - Piaw Na

Small companies generally have small development teams and small numbers of users, both of which make it easy to ship quickly. - Gabe

I think costly checks grow when one group of people is affected by another group's errors. That tends to happen when groups insist on ownership of critical facilities (both infrastructural, like networking, and organizational, like PR) and set themselves up as gatekeepers. "Us and them" dynamics set in on both sides, and the problems make the gatekeepers be even more gatekeepery. - ⓞnor

Agree with @nor about multiple groups. If my group pays the cost but your group benefits from some change, I have an incentive to say No to your change. And you have an incentive to say Yes, because you're not paying the cost but you get all the benefit. This also happens if you take your kids Christmas shopping… - Amit Patel

Right, and if a single group bears both costs and rewards, they can make intelligent tradeoffs, and have an incentive to develop efficient safeguards. But developing the kind of partitioning, self-service infrastructure, and chargebacks necessary for that has its own costs (in many cases defeating the economies of scale that make big companies successful in the first place!). - ⓞnor

"If you're hard enough to sell to, the people who are best at making things don't want to bother. The only people who will sell to you are companies that specialize in selling to you." - j1m

Piaw, as far as I understand it x-ray machines were in "unstable beta" hurting people's health longer than most web sites... http://www.museumofquackery.com/devices... - Philipp Lenssen

one problem is that although thorough testing may cost less than a recall, the thorough testing has to happen every time & the recall may only happen one in 10 or more, so it may still not be cost efficient :-( what programmers hate (in my experience, anyway) is the idea that the work they're doing is not used or, even worse, causes more work for others. We like to think we make the world better ;-) *crosses fingers* - immaterial

The people responsible for developing new features don't necessarily have to be the ones productionizing and handling all the details of running the live service, although of course they need to be connected to their users to make a decent product. I think the open-source model might have some benefits here—random people might throw out innovative but half-baked pieces of code, then others might develop them into a finished product. - Jim Norris

When downside costs a lot (Google.com, VISA, etc.) you should have enough process. When lack of success costs a lot (most startups) you should do whatever works! The intersection (early-stage product at big company) is where a lot of problems happen. - Michael Herf

It seems like most folks are really bad at assessing the costs (and opportunity-costs) of intangibles. This may be one reason why most people are overly risk-averse. In any case, creativity and innovation increasingly suffer as these checks against adverse outcomes grow and their hidden costs multiply. - Gordon Vaughan

I find most of his essays insightful, but not so much this one, and it's a problem which I particularly need some help with. - Mr. Gunn

Yup, I'm in the same boat Bill. But it is easy to get distracted.... - Joanmarie

Exactly, Bill. So, I guess the internets aren't productive? Plus, I feel a lot *more* distracted when my computer is "disconnected from the Internet." - Anthony Citrano

I feel your pain... Trying to get off the crack of Twitter, e-mail or FF for that mater is hard. I augment Gmail with GTD for Gmail extention which imprisons me in that particular environment even more deeply. Spending lots of time online is OK as long as you produce enough value (make money) within give amount of time. Once that link is broken and tickers keeps feeding your addictive neural pathways, there is a problem. - Mindaugas Dagys

@Anthony, I agree! - asiriusgeek

hi Paul, I have translated this post into chinese for noncommercial use. Following is the link:http://www.yeeyan.com/article... Please tell me if there is any problem with this, I will remove the translation. To be frank, your words inspired me a lot, though I am neither a programmer nor a hacker, the principles and the way you analyse how to start a startup is applicable to other industries than programming, too, Thank you, dude. Best regards, pestwave - pestwave