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Science Online

Science Online

A room dedicated to online scientific communication. Previously: Science Blogging 2008.
Eric Logan
Green 'smear campaign' against professor who dared to disown 'sexed up' UN climate dossier. -
Green 'smear campaign' against professor who dared to disown 'sexed up' UN climate dossier.
Prof Tol, from Sussex University, is a highly respected climate economist and one of two ‘co-ordinating lead authors’ of an important chapter in the 2,600-page report published last week by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). He has been widely criticised by green campaigners after he claimed that the much shorter ‘summary for policymakers’ – hammered out in all-night sessions between scientists and government officials over a week-long meeting in Yokohama, Japan – was overly ‘alarmist’. In his view, the summary focused on ‘scare stories’ and suggestions the world faced ‘the four horsemen of the apocalypse’. He said he did not want his name associated with it because he felt ‘uncomfortable’ with the way the summary exaggerated the economic impact of global warming. The source of the alleged smear campaign is Bob Ward, director of policy at the London School of Economics’s Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change. Mr Ward – neither an economist nor a climate... more... - Eric Logan from Bookmarklet
Eric Logan
The economics of mitigating climate change: What can we know? -
The economics of mitigating climate change: What can we know?
The long-term economics of mitigating climate change over the long run has played a high profile role in the most important analyses of climate change in the last decade, namely the Stern Report and the IPCC's Fourth Assessment. However, the various kinds of uncertainties that affect these economic results raise serious questions about whether or not the net costs and benefits of mitigating climate change over periods as long as 50 to 100 years can be known to such a level of accuracy that they should be reported to policymakers and the public. This paper provides a detailed analysis of the derivation of these estimates of the long-term economic costs and benefits of mitigation. It particularly focuses on the role of technological change, especially for energy efficiency technologies, in making the net economic results of mitigating climate change unknowable over the long run. Because of these serious technical problems, policymakers should not base climate change mitigation policy on... more... - Eric Logan from Bookmarklet
Eric Logan
Sea Caves Reveal Rapid Rise in Ancient Ocean Levels - Scientific American -
Sea Caves Reveal Rapid Rise in Ancient Ocean Levels - Scientific American
Geologists set out to identify sea level changes over the course of the past 135,000 years by collecting rock samples from six formations at various levels in five different caves. The researchers found that sea levels were roughly 1 meter higher than present 81,000 years ago when the world was thought to be experiencing an ice age that should have locked up water in glacial ice, thereby lowering sea level as much as 30 meters. More disturbingly, the record suggests that sea level can rise or fall as fast as two meters a century—nearly 12 times as fast as sea level rise in the past 100 years and indicating the potential for a meter of sea-level rise within one human lifetime. "This has major implications for future concerns with sea-level change," says geoscientist Jeffrey Dorale of the University of Iowa, lead author of the new research published in the February 12 issue of Science. "Our study indicates rapid rates of ice melting and ice formation. The mechanisms underlying these dramatic changes need further consideration as we look to a future of impending climate changes." - Eric Logan from Bookmarklet
Glaciologist Richard Alley of The Pennsylvania State University, who was not involved in the research, calls the findings "solid" and "careful," and notes that this research confirms that ice-sheet changes can happen quickly. "It points to rather rapid shrinkage and growth of ice," he says, while cautioning that further research will be needed to confirm this finding. "The growth rates... more... - Eric Logan
Eric Logan
Darryl Cunningham Investigates: The Facts In The Case Of Dr. Andrew Wakefield -
Darryl Cunningham Investigates: The Facts In The Case Of Dr. Andrew Wakefield
A fifteen page story about the MMR vaccination controversy. Note added August 2013. This chapter, much corrected, is part of my book Science Tales (known as 'How To Fake A Moon Landing' in the States). A book on controversial science subjects, including evolution, the supposed fakes NASA Moon landings, homeopathy, and much more. - Eric Logan from Bookmarklet
Crazy sad story of scientific fraud told in cartoon form. - Eric Logan
Eric Logan
Seth Lloyd on the Universe as a Quantum Computer - YouTube -
Eric Logan
Shape-shifting claytronics: wild future here by 2020, experts say -
Shape-shifting claytronics: wild future here by 2020, experts say
Imagine a bracelet or watch that changes into something else when you take it off. Perhaps it becomes a cell phone, tablet, or computer. Although this scenario may seem like science fiction, this and much more will soon become reality with a ground-breaking new technology known as claytronics. Scientists at Carnegie Mellon University and Intel Research Labs Pittsburgh are just a few years away from bringing to life a futuristic simulation system that can morph nearly any object imagined into another object with different size, shape, color and function. - Eric Logan from Bookmarklet
Eric Logan
IPCC Insider Rejects Global-Warming Report | National Review Online -
IPCC Insider Rejects Global-Warming Report | National Review Online
Tol, who has been working with the IPCC since 1994, was the lead author of Chapter 10 of the report, on key economic sectors and services. He was also a contributor to Chapters 17 and 19, on the economics of adaptation to climate change and emergent risks, respectively. He took his name off of the final summary because he felt the IPCC did not properly account for human technological ingenuity and downplayed the potential benefits of global warming. “In the current SPM there are a number of statements in there that are widely cited that are just not correct,” Tol says. One prediction has it that crop yields will begin to fall dramatically, a statement “that is particularly not supported by the chapter itself,” Tol says. “What it completely forgets is technological progress and that crop yields have been going up for as long as we’ve looked at crop yields.” Beyond misleading statements on agriculture, Tol says the IPCC report cites only the maximum estimate for how much it will cost to... more... - Eric Logan from Bookmarklet
We could protect the coasts if people believed that sea levels were going to rise, but it doesn't seem like that's going to happen the way things are going. - Victor Ganata
Yep, there are so many reasons to change how we do things to fight climate change and so few reasons not to. - Scoble, Alex Scoble
I was impressed with many of the energy saving technologies that are implemented in Italy. When I asked why they where implemented the answer invariably involved energy cost factors. It's a shame that alarmism and intentional cost increases are the prods that seem to be the primary plan to force change in our country that has prospered so much partially as a result of comparatively cheap energy and resources. - Eric Logan
To be honest, I think we're well past the point where curbing emissions will significantly change the trajectory of the global temperature rise. I think we're at the point where we either build preventive measures now, or we cut our losses in the near future and abandon entire cities. Either way it's gonna cost us. - Victor Ganata
Eric Logan
People must hear both sides of the climate story | Herald Sun -
THE media’s response to the latest instalment of the UN Climate Panel report will inevitably dwell on the negative effects of global warming — how it will reduce agricultural yields, increase heatwaves and drown communities. Those stories will be correct, if only in a limited sense of that word. So while reading them, it is worth stepping back and realising that they provide just a partial version of the global warming story. Yes, global warming is real, it is partly man-made and it’s a long-term problem we must address. But describing it in one-sided, vaguely apocalyptic terms won’t help us find solutions. For example, a previous edition of the UN Climate Panel summary told us rising sea levels, which are indeed happening, would deliver “potential damages to infrastructure in coastal areas …” projected to cost “tens of billions of dollars for individual countries, for example Egypt, Poland, and Vietnam”. Yet while laying out the possibility, they neglect to tell us that these losses... more... - Eric Logan from Bookmarklet
From the author: "But eventually global warming will turn negative and that is why we still must act to fix it. The best solution is to ramp up funding for research and development of effective green technology." - Sean McBride
I hope to actually download and browse a copy of this report. - Brian Johns
Hardly anyone debates that Sean the shrillness of the warnings and the proposed solutions are the crux of the problem. I also intend to read it. Lomborg has been skewered for being sane. - Eric Logan from FFHound!
I'm not convinced that we aren't facing an apocalyptic situation with regard to global warming and climate change. Better safe than sorry on issues of this strategic magnitude, in my opinion. Be aggressive about addressing the problem, while continuing to evaluate all new relevant data as it comes in. No one can predict climate change with absolute certainty -- just best guesses. - Sean McBride
That's called The Precautionary Principle, which Adam Curtis took on hilariously in Pt 3 of The Power of Nightmares. Science be damned, since the problem is defined before the definition of the full dataset is available for experiment. Which, of course, is why people are willing to alter their future based on models when the observed data shows the models are missing something, like how the oceans work, radiation physics, cloud formation, and the effect of aerosols...for starters. - MRW_8
It must be difficult to hold views on global warming and climate change that are at variance with those of the overwhelming majority of legitimate scientists in the field. - Sean McBride
There aren't two sides any more, climate change has 2 sides in the same way evolution and creation have two sides. Only one of course is credible - WarLord
"t must be difficult to hold views on global warming and climate change that are at variance with those of the overwhelming majority of legitimate scientists in the field." You haven't read the "legitimate scientists in the field." I have, until my eyeballs fell out. See my reference to the revolution about to happen in the American Physical Society (APS) in the "Debunking every IPCC... more... - MRW_8
As I pointed out to Eric recently, I get my climate science from the following publications: 1. American Scientist 2. Discover 3. National Geographic 4. Nature 5. New Scientist 6. Science 7. Science Daily 8. Scientific American 9. Technology Review 10. Wired - Sean McBride
Those publications are compromised. You have to read the actual papers. A tedious, dreary activity. - MRW_8
I track trends on this topic with: [Prismatic; Global Warming]. - Sean McBride
So what? Read the papers. Problem is most of them re paywalled. But I buy them, like an asshole. :-( - MRW_8
I don't buy the claim that all those publications are "compromised" and are telling deliberate lies about global warming and climate science. That takes one deep into the realm of crackpot conspiracy theorizing. - Sean McBride
Of course you don't because you have nothing to compare it to. You don't read the source. - MRW_8
Then read this: It will take you 90-120 minutes. - MRW_8
Why would the editors of and authors at Nature, Science, National Geographic, etc. spin fairy tales about this subject? That doesn't pass a basic reality check. - Sean McBride
When I see 25% of the climate science community reverse its former views on global warming, I will start to pay attention -- but not until then. That's my threshold. - Sean McBride
Then you don't know what's been happening lately. The papers that have been presented for publication have been so fully compromised that Nature, and I believe, Science, now requiree the papers pass a statistics test by real statisticians before publication because the models/experiments have been so badly compromised that they cannot stand up to scrutiny. - MRW_8
Believe me, I have no problem questioning official stories -- I have never believed the official story on 9/11. - Sean McBride
I check out global warming news on Prismatic once a day -- so far I have noticed no major trend among most climate change scientists to reverse their views on the issue. - Sean McBride
Over 100 papers CLAIMED TO BE PEER-REVIEWED were retracted from those publications over the last three months because they were created by a computer program. Don't tell me you haven't heard about this. You probably haven't. This is what happens when our news is compromised as well. - MRW_8
Give me a link for your last comment and I will check it out. - Sean McBride
I am late to get out the door right now otherwise I would inundate you with the links to this scandal. I will do it later. - MRW_8
Ok -- whenever you have time. Give me your best link I will look at it carefully. - Sean McBride
I will definitely give you those links later. Read the APS transcript. Yeah, it's 593 pages but its a fucking court transcript. It has 2 inch borders and it's triple spaced. You can do one page per second. So in 593 seconds, you can get through it. For the APS to want to review their 2007 Climate Change statement is huge. AND. They are doing it with court transcribers and a completely 100% open, transparent process. - MRW_8
I'll skim the APS transcript. I am not locked into a position on this or any other issue -- I am always willing to change my mind -- but I require solid information. - Sean McBride
It's actually really interesting because these guys aren't being nice to each other. And, jeezuss, look at their credentials. These aren't bloggers with an "interest in climate change." These are serious scientists with credentials up the ying-yang who understand radiative physics and math and atmospheric physics and geological time saying to each other 'what the hell is going on'. - MRW_8
Skim is good. - MRW_8
getting the evil eye here, Sean. gotta run - MRW_8
Later. This is just a friendly debate between us, by the way -- we agree on many other issues -- and I take your opinions seriously on this issue -- I know you do your homework. - Sean McBride
What the global warming topic looks like on Google News right now: [Google News; global warming] - Sean McBride
And on Twitter: [Twitter; global warming] - Sean McBride
So what. Remember Giordano Bruno. Murdered. Slaughtered in Feb 1600 AD because he said the earth revolved around the run. Galileo THEN said, OK, I'll take house arrest and keep my mouth shut. Whoops. I'm about to get slaughtered here if I don't leave. Yikes. - MRW_8
You better get a move on. :) I respect the contrarian spirit and contrarian opinions -- I have been a Bruno fan since my teens -- but contrarian views have to accord with reality. Not all contrarian views are true simply because they are contrarian. - Sean McBride
OK Sean. This guy after refusing to sign the document==> Prof Tol, the lead co-ordinating author of the report’s chapter on economics, was involved in drafting the summary for policymakers. From the current SPM wrote this today. - Eric Logan
They probably haven't had time to label him a climate mis-informer yet. Give it a few days. - Eric Logan
Eric -- how soon do you think Tol will move Scientific American, National Geographic and other leading scientific publications to his point of view? That is the datapoint I am looking for -- a shift in consensus among the world's leading scientific authorities. If that happens, it will register instantly on Prismatic, Google News, Twitter, etc. and I will see it. - Sean McBride
It's not a relevant question. All of the leading publications thought Bruno was a heretic too. Who is right is the pertinent question. You don't even have consensus among the editors and lead authors and that's all I hear anymore. - Eric Logan
Eric -- do you understand the syntax of these four Google searches and how to interpret the search results? 1. 2. 3. 4. - Sean McBride
Sean I am not going to keep rehashing the same argument. The scientists are in vehement disagreement on many of these issues. I am completely aware that that fact is being green washed and how.. - Eric Logan
To dig into the syntax see: [Unofficial Google Advanced Search] Google is a powerful data mining (and knowledge) tool. - Sean McBride
From Scientific American (January 14, 2014): [About that consensus on global warming: 9136 agree, 1 disagrees.] - Sean McBride
"I just want to highlight this illuminating infographic by James Powell in which, based on more than 2000 peer-reviewed publications, he counts the number of authors from November, 2012 to December, 2013 who explicitly deny global warming (that is, who propose a fundamentally different reason for temperature rise than anthropogenic CO2). The number is exactly one. In addition Powell also has helpful links to the abstracts and main text bodies of the relevant papers." - Sean McBride
[Voodoo Economists, Part 3.5: Richard Tol says wildly optimistic MIT/NBER study, beloved of deniers, is “way too pessimistic”] See the bullet points which take apart Toll. - Sean McBride
Just one LOL ? Celestial driver of Phanerozoic climate. Cosmoclimatology: a new theory emerges. Implications of the Secondary Role of Carbon Dioxide and Methane Forcing in Climate Change: Past, Present, and Future - Eric Logan
How have those papers affected the overwhelming consensus view at leading scientific publications? - Sean McBride
Are those Google searches a mystery to you? :) Google is an amazing surgical tool if you know how to use it. - Sean McBride
Show me the search that explains the real mystery. - Eric Logan
Where is the link for the source of this graphic? - Sean McBride
If you don't know what that graph is then you need to start reading a lot more than just your Google search's. The graph was produced by John Christy and it shows the missing tropical hot spot. This is a discussion of the graph in question. - Eric Logan
I asked to see the link for the graphic to evaluate the credibility of the source and to peruse any discussion the post may have generated. - Sean McBride
The link I just gave you is a discussion of that graphic specifically. - Eric Logan from FFHound!
Same old shtuff from the Heartland Institute network: 1. [Examining Dr. John Christy's Global Warming Skepticism] 2. [Climate Misinformer: John Christy] 3. [John Christy, Richard McNider and Roy Spencer trying to overturn mainstream science by rewriting history and... more... - Sean McBride
Christy's views have gained no traction among leading scientific publications. Let me know if they ever do and I will start to pay attention to him. - Sean McBride
[Global Warming Deniers and Legitimate Skeptical Scientists] - Sean McBride
You get funnier and less informed on this topic progressively, Sean. Christy was a member of the IPCC in 2007 which makes him a Nobel prize winner. How many illegitimate scientists used to be part of the IPCC ? - Eric Logan
McNider and Christy: Why Kerry Is Flat Wrong on Climate Change It was the scientific skeptics who bucked the 'consensus' and said the Earth was round. - Eric Logan
Eric -- Christy and his fellow deniers constitute a minuscule minority within the climate science community -- deal with it. - Sean McBride
[Sourcewatch: John R. Christy] - Sean McBride
Sourcewatch: "Spencer and Christy sat by for most of a decade allowing — indeed encouraging — the use of their data set as an icon for global warming skeptics. They committed serial errors in the data analysis, but insisted they were right and models and thermometers were wrong. They did little or nothing to root out possible sources of errors, and left it to others to clean up the mess, as has now been done." - Sean McBride
I am dealing with it. Free entertainment. I have been watching false crises for years now. I try to find ways to profit. Remember this one? - Eric Logan
[Should you believe anything John Christy says?] Devastating rebuttal to Christy -- I hope you are entertained by it. Also, I have picked up hints that both Spencer and Christy are Christian fundamentalists. We know that drill. - Sean McBride
Eric: how I am using Google search: I look for all the items posted at specific and reputable publications (like Scientific American) on global warming, limit the results for the past year or past month, sort them by relevance (importance), and tally up the number of pro and con articles regarding AGW. Quick and dirty data mining. Denialists like Spencer and Christy haven't moved the... more... - Sean McBride
The only venue that counts are the actual observations. If we where actually listening to the warmists we would have a carbon trading board in Chicago already. - Eric Logan from FFHound!
The venues that count are the publications in which the world's best scientific minds interpret the data from real-world observations -- and they are easy to track. - Sean McBride
Global Warming is Destroying April Fools Day. - Eric Logan
"Ten years ago I simply parroted what the IPCC told us. One day I started checking the facts and data – first I started with a sense of doubt, but then I became outraged when I discovered that much of what the IPCC and the media were telling us was sheer nonsense and was not even supported by any scientific facts and measurements. To this day I still feel shame that as a scientist I made presentations of their science without first checking it." - Klaus-Eckart Puls - Eric Logan
Eric -- whenever I check out your scientific sources, I find that they have been debunked by the overwhelming majority of scientific authorities on climate science. Not a single leading scientific publication on the planet gives them any credence. Many of these sources are religious fundamentalist cranks or they are being funded by carbon billionaires with short-term profit motives. Most of the promoters and defenders of these sources on the Internet are barely literate. - Sean McBride
Your continued appeal to authority/ consensus just makes you more laughable and it's one of the oldest canards in science. The old adage “there is strength in numbers” is not always true, especially when it comes to science. Science is not advanced through polls or consensus. Observation and experimental evidence is what matters. Thankfully, being in the minority does not necessarily... more... - Eric Logan
What exactly does ones religion have to do with this debate? Most scientists are atheists. Nir Shaviv is Jewish. I have no idea what religion the scientists are nor do I care. That's just another one of your personal biases. I doubt it's a valid observation, but I haven't researched it. The natural inclination of religion would seem to support man made climate catastrophe. There is that whole destroy those who are destroying the earth thing. - Eric Logan from FFHound!
Eric: "Your continued appeal to authority/ consensus just makes you more laughable and it's one of the oldest canards in science." Actually, you are laughable. A tiny minority of scientists, many of them with questionable motives and agendas, have been unable to make any headway in persuading an overwhelming majority of reputable climate scientists to their denialist point of view. They are regularly trounced in scientific debates on global warming issues. So who is laughing? - Sean McBride
Do you appeal to scientific authority in rebutting the claims of creationists who believe that the universe is a few thousand years old or the claims of those who insist that smoking tobacco is not a cause of serious health problems? Global warming denialists, for the most part, occupy the same part of the ideological spectrum as creationists and apologists for the tobacco industry. - Sean McBride
I am laughing at you on a fairly regular basis. I don't have to appeal to authority or consensus some of things creationists believe are ludicrous yet I would hazard a guess most humans believe in some form of a diety and I don't feel a need to silence them either. - Eric Logan
I don't know what you find funny about having your views crushingly rejected by all the leading science publications in the world, without exception -- but to each his own. I think you've got your ego invested in global warming denialism and are unable to find a way to disinvest. This isn't a rational topic for you. - Sean McBride
Let me know when the actual global temperature observations are within the statistical error bars of IPCC projections. Call and ask for blue boy. I will be holding my breath. - Eric Logan ? "Since 1990, global surface temperatures have warmed at a rate of about 0.15°C per decade, within the range of model projections of about 0.10 to 0.35°C per decade." - Andrew C (✔)
(same link) "All in all, the IPCC models do an impressive job accurately representing and projecting changes in the global climate, contrary to contrarian claims. In fact, the IPCC global surface warming projections have performed much better than predictions made by climate contrarians." - Andrew C (✔)
What that link glosses over Andrew while mentioning this. ==> "IPCC models have been accurate For 1992–2006, the natural variability of the climate amplified human-caused global surface warming, while it dampened the surface warming for 1997–2012. Over the full period, the overall warming rate has remained within the range of IPCC model projections, as the 2013 IPCC report notes." - Eric Logan from FFHound!
It fails to mention this ==> "The 1990 prediction did require an adjustment, since it did not take into account natural variability — which includes the chaotic nature of weather as well as longer-term natural patterns, such as the El Niño/La Niña cycle." They expect us to take their word for it and you apparently do that they know what contribution natural variability makes. Even though it was not accounted for in the original projection. - Eric Logan from FFHound!
The same adjustments can be applied to the AGW deniers; wouldn't have helped them. - Andrew C (✔)
Meanwhile, you seem to take the projected _positive_ effects of increasing CO2 as settled facts... Your so-called skepticism seems to always and only go in one direction. - Andrew C (✔)
Increased CO2 has a logarithmic effect. That's not in dispute. It's a radiative physics fact: - MRW_8
This is from Thermal Physics by Stephen and Katherine Blundell, 2010, Oxford University Press, p. 454. it shows the radiative effect of doubling CO2 in the atmosphere: As noted, CO2 absorbs in the 15 micron band--and loosely from 13-18 microns--which is around 193 K or -112 F. As shown, CO2 doesn't absorb from 220 K to 320 K, which is... more... - MRW_8
With all due respect, Andrew C, you don't understand the Greenhouse Effect. Neither did I for years until I had a radiative physicist and infrared astronomist sneer at my basic science ignorance, and slowly and painfully explain how it works. If you will look at any IPCC report that reports on AGW, H20 as water vapor is not in the listing of greenhouse gases. That's why CO2 was... more... - MRW_8
Robert Rosner: "I believe climate change is very real and that it’s anthropogenic. And it means that we have a big problem." - Sean McBride
“The term ‘climate change’ is meaningless. The Earth’s climate has been changing since time immemorial, that is since the Earth was formed 1,000 million years ago. The theory of ‘man-made climate change’ is an unsubstantiated hypothesis [about] our climate [which says it] has been adversely affected by the burning of fossil fuels in the last 100 years, causing the average temperature on... more... - Eric Logan
FACTFILE Carbon dioxide (CO2) was discovered around 1770 by Joseph Priestley, who also discovered oxygen (O2) in 1774, for which he is better known. A scientist called Le Chatelier proposed the so-called ‘equilibrium law’, which has been used to argue if CO2 increases in the atmosphere, plants will metabolise it faster. Before the Industrial Revolution there used to be about 27 molecules of CO2 for every 100,000 molecules of air - now there are roughly 39 molecules per 100,000. - Eric Logan
Eric: shouldn't you post the links and sources for your comments? [‘Global warming’ is rubbish says top professor] - Sean McBride
Sheesh. That's a gross abuse of Le Chatelier's principle. All that means is that given any reversible reaction, the forward reaction and the backward reaction will eventually occur at rates such that the reactants and the products will reach equilibrium concentrations. So all the natural processes involving CO2 have forward and reverse reactions: atmospheric CO2 dissolves into carbonic... more... - Victor Ganata
"The models don't know how to model the H2O part yet. " - cite, please? - Andrew C (✔)
Water is most definitely the most abundant greenhouse gas, but its concentration varies so much that,it can't be what's driving the temperature rise. It's the other gases (carbon dioxide, methane, etc.) that have unilateral effects. If water were the sole greenhouse gas, temperatures would fluctuate depending on humidity and therefore over time, it would average out of to a delta of zero, and you wouldn't see a positive signal. - Victor Ganata
Comment on Les Woodcock: "Am I reading a newspaper or Viz comic? Can't believe this issue has become polarized along political lines. Does cancer have a left and right perspective for example? Maybe we are a way off knowing if increased planetary warming is natural or man made definitively. However 97% of scientists now believe the probability is that the changes we are seeing have no... more... - Sean McBride
The physics of the greenhouse effect and the chemistry and biology of the carbon cycle isn't super complex. This is all lower division undergrad kind of stuff. Don't try to obfuscate and paint it as accessible only to experienced climate scientists. - Victor Ganata
If it's so simple Victor why can't they model it ? CO2 doesn't work like a thermostat. Does the increased presence of CO2 increase temperature alone ? - Eric Logan
They make adjustments to the data ex post facto. Over and over again. - Eric Logan
Yes, the model is that not that much more complicated than delta [CO2] = delta T * some constant. Because of Le Chatelier's principle, you can generally ignore the contributions of cyclic processes, because you know the reaction rates will cancel out. The only thing that drives concentration changes in one direction is burning up fossil fuels. - Victor Ganata
The difficulty is more that local T, which is the only thing you can really measure, fluctuates for a lot of different reasons besides [CO2] and statistical analysis of local Ts is the only way to derive a global T. The interpretation of the data involves separating out all the other processes, which is what requires experience in climate science. But there's no significant question about the greenhouse effect or the carbon cycle. That's a lot more understood than global T. - Victor Ganata
I also honestly have learned more about this topic as a result of information that you have brought to this debate in this forum then any other contributor. I have been reading extensively about it. Like MRW I actually pay to read reports behind paywall's that are complex and tedious. I asked a polymath friend who is a skeptic for the most part about optimal levels of CO2 a few weeks... more... - Eric Logan
Climate science isn't a monolithic discipline, it's really interdisciplinary, and a lot of parts are actually quite settled (like the infrared absorption wavelengths of CO2, the dissolution and effervescence of CO2 in the ocean, and carbon fixation with RuBisCO vs transpiration). Arguing against these things without convincing models and supporting data (which, if they existed, would... more... - Victor Ganata
I agree that the media has been damaging to the discussion by sensationalizing anecdotes and making correlations where none exist, but this doesn't really have much to do with the science. - Victor Ganata
So, yeah, I'd say the parts that aren't completely settled are how to get the global temperature signal from statistical analysis of local temperature observations and what exactly the constant relating CO2 concentration to global temperature is. But the existence of uncertainty doesn't mean we know nothing. I don't see anyone credible arguing that there isn't a positive delta in T,... more... - Victor Ganata
That's the definition of complexity trying to extrapolate formulas that are well understood into a chaotic system. Instead of actually trying to elucidate uncertainty we get worse case scenarios designed to pass policy that will enrich some and impoverish others. If things had gone according to plan we would have a CCX right now in Chicago near where you need a three foot auger to go ice fishing on Lake Michigan in April presently. - Eric Logan
Policy is whole other level of complexity and, yeah, some of them are probably not going to be effective or helpful (I don't think carbon credits will do anything to affect emissions, for example.) But that still doesn't invalidate what we do know. Some parts of this country may have had a long winter, but if you look at the statistical analysis of local temperatures, it still shows a rise in global temperature. Maybe not as high as some of the models predict, but still within confidence intervals. - Victor Ganata
I know it doesn't seem that I am open minded about this especially here which is kind of sounding board for me on this topic. I often play devils advocate for lack of a better term, but I am and I am paying attention. Where friends on FB I rarely if ever broach these topics there. - Eric Logan
"Can climate models explain the recent stagnation in global warming?” Hans von Storch(1), Armineh Barkhordarian(1), Klaus Hasselmann(2) and Eduardo Zorita(1) (1) Institute for Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Geesthacht, Germany (2) Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany - MRW_8
"Stochastic modeling of water vapor in the climate system” - MRW_8
"WATER VAPOR in the CLIMATE SYSTEM, Special Report. December 1995.” American Geophysical Union. Reprinted here: - MRW_8
"Observations of Stratocumulus Clouds and Their Effect on the Eastern Pacific Surface Heat Budget along 20°S” Simon P. de Szoeke,* Sandra Yuter,+ David Mechem,# Chris W. Fairall,@ Casey D. Burleyson,+ and Paquita Zuidema& doi: QUOTE. Coupled model intercomparison project... more... - MRW_8
The National Science Foundation: ""Clouds: The Wild Card of Climate Change.” See specifically, "Computing Clouds--Predicting cloud power with computer models.” - MRW_8
"An Evaluation of Decadal Probability Forecasts from State-of-the-Art Climate Models” Suckling, Emma B., Leonard A. Smith, 2013: An Evaluation of Decadal Probability Forecasts from State-of-the-Art Climate Models*. J. Climate, 26, 9334–9347. doi: - MRW_8
Austria’s national weather service, the Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG) press release November 11, 2013, "Slower temperature increase: climate models under scrutiny” Use Google translate. "“In the last 15 years there has been a clear weakening in the global... more... - MRW_8
Just for starters. - MRW_8
Don't ask me to do your Google cite homework again. My time is valuable. If you were really interested, you'd be doing this yourself. I study this for my own edification to understand the parameters of what I'm being told are the limits of my own survival. I don't enjoying bullshitting myself, and I won't let others do it to me; I have enough scientific formal training to muddle through... more... - MRW_8
MRW -- no one is obligated to research your minority claims on global warming -- that's your responsibility, if you are interested in persuading others to your point of view. I did my usual scan of the latest global warming/climate change news this morning using Prismatic, Twitter and Google News (it takes just a few minutes) -- the authoritative scientific consensus hasn't changed from... more... - Sean McBride
Eric Logan
Jaroslav Trnka on the Amplituhedron | Sean Carroll -
Jaroslav Trnka on the Amplituhedron | Sean Carroll
Usually, technical advances in mathematical physics don’t generate a lot of news buzz. But last year a story in Quanta proved to be an exception. It relayed the news of an intriguing new way to think about quantum field theory — a mysterious mathematical object called the Amplituhedron, which gives a novel perspective on how we think about the interactions of quantum fields. - Eric Logan from Bookmarklet
Why can't a man think like a woman, and a woman think like a man? -
Whether our brains differ structurally is a hot topic in neuroscience. Recently, a neuroimaging study suggested that female brains are functionally more suited to social skills including language, memory and multi-tasking, while men are hard-wired to be better at perception and co-ordinated movement. But are these abilities innate to our gender, or are they influenced by the environment? Are these studies subject to gender biases themselves? - Halil from Bookmarklet
The gender specific toys children play with - for example dolls for girls and cars for boys – could be changing how their brains develop. Many toys aimed at boys involve physical skills and logic, whereas many girl-aimed toys involve nurturing behaviours and socialising. These kinds of gender-specific toys and encouraging only gender-specific play could limit potential in both sexes.... more... - Halil
10,883 Scientific Studies Agree Global Warming Is Real, and Caused By Humans. Two Do Not. -
Powell notes that very, very few of climate change deniers--who tend more towards filling Congressional hearings and cable "news" networks with their own carbon dioxide emissions--have ever written a peer-reviewed scientific article in support of their "position." That's because if you write an article subject to peer review for a scientific publication, you have to back it up with...evidence. - Halil from Bookmarklet
Genius knight
Nanoparticles boost solar-energy capture by plants -
Nanoparticles boost solar-energy capture by plants
The team believes that the discovery could be exploited in a new field dubbed plant "nanobionics", whereby nanoparticles could enhance natural functions in ordinary plants and also be used to create artificial plant-like systems that grow and repair themselves using sunlight and water. Potential applications include biochemical detectors for monitoring pollutants in the environment and perhaps even new technologies that would help increase crop yields. - Halil from Bookmarklet
exciting - Halil
Eric Logan
Proof of Inflationary Universe To Be Announced? -
Proof of Inflationary Universe To Be Announced?
Rumors are racing through the physics and cosmology communities this weekend that long-sought, Nobel Prize-worthy evidence for cosmic inflation driving the Big Bang will be announced on Monday, March 17th. A press conference for an unspecified "major discovery" is scheduled for noon EDT (16:00 UT) at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, just up the street from Sky & Telescope. We'll be there. Word of what may be announced first broke into wide circulation late Friday night, when The Guardian newspaper in the U.K. published an article online, Gravitational waves: have US scientists heard echoes of the big bang? Here are excerpts: - Eric Logan from Bookmarklet
Eric Logan
Should biotech make life hellish for criminals? -
Should biotech make life hellish for criminals?
Even in my most religious moments, I have never been able to take the idea of hell seriously. Prevailing Christian theology asks us to believe that an all-powerful, all-knowing being would do what no human parent could ever do: create tens of billions of flawed and fragile creatures, pluck out a few favourites to shower in transcendent love, and send the rest to an eternity of unrelenting torment. That story has always seemed like an intellectual relic to me, a holdover from barbarism, or worse, a myth meant to coerce belief. But stripped of the religious particulars, I can see the appeal of hell as an instrument of justice, a way of righting wrongs beyond the grave. Especially in unusual circumstances. Take the case of Adolf Hitler. On the afternoon of 29 April 1945, Hitler was stashed deep in his Berlin bunker, watching his Third Reich collapse, when he received word that Benito Mussolini was dead. Hitler was aghast at the news, not because he’d lost yet another ally, but because of... more... - Eric Logan from Bookmarklet
Dementia Risk Heightened In Low IQ Teenagers - Health News - redOrbit -
In a statement, researchers from the Sahlgrenska Academy said that they had previously discovered a link between cardiovascular fitness at or before the age of 18 and health later on in life. In this new study, however, they conducted an analysis of the medical data of more than one million young Swedish men and found that poor physical and cognitive health during their teenage years increased the risk of dementia before the age of 60. “Previous studies have shown the correlation between cardiovascular fitness and the risk of dementia in old age. Now, for the first time, we can show that the increased risk also applies to early-onset dementia and its precursors,” explained lead investigator and Sahlgrenska Academy researcher Jenny Nyberg. - Halil from Bookmarklet
Eric Logan
California drought in context | Climate Etc. -
California drought in context | Climate Etc.
Zorawar Singh
DAMPE to reveal the dark secrets of dark matter
Molecules line up for X-ray diffraction -
Molecules line up for X-ray diffraction
A new X-ray diffraction technique that works on single organic molecules has been demonstrated by an international team of researchers. The team hopes that, with further development, the method could be used to work out protein structures and even investigate entire living cells. - Halil from Bookmarklet
This is well worth reading if you're familiar with and interested in X-ray crystallography techniques. - Halil
Eric Logan
Understanding the Past - Understanding the Present - Understanding the Future - Eric Logan from Bookmarklet
Eric Logan
Climate less sensitive to CO2 than models suggest. -
Climate less sensitive to CO2 than models suggest.
The clues for this and the relevant scientific papers are all referred to in the recently published Fifth Assessment report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). However, this important conclusion was not drawn in the full IPCC report – it is only mentioned as a possibility – and is ignored in the IPCC’s Summary for Policymakers (SPM). For over thirty years climate scientists have presented a range for climate sensitivity (ECS) that has hardly changed. It was 1.5-4.5°C in 1979 and this range is still the same today in AR5. The new report suggests that the inclusion of recent evidence, reflected in AR5, justifies a lower observationally-based temperature range of 1.25–3.0°C, with a best estimate of 1.75°C, for a doubling of CO2. By contrast, the climate models used for projections in AR5 indicate a range of 2-4.5°C, with an average of 3.2°C. This is one of the key findings of the new report Oversensitive: how the IPCC hid the good news on global warming,... more... - Eric Logan from Bookmarklet
Eric Logan
Chandra & XMM-Newton Provide Direct Measurement of Distant Black Hole's Spin March 5, 2014 -
Chandra & XMM-Newton Provide Direct Measurement of Distant Black Hole's Spin
 March 5, 2014
These spin measurements can give researchers important clues about how black holes grow over time. If black holes grow mainly from collisions and mergers between galaxies they should accumulate material in a stable disk, and the steady supply of new material from the disk should lead to rapidly spinning black holes. In contrast if black holes grow through many small accretion episodes, they will accumulate material from random directions. Like a merry go round that is pushed both backwards and forwards, this would make the black hole spin more slowly. The discovery that the black hole in RX J1131 is spinning at over half the speed of light suggests that this black hole has grown via mergers, rather than pulling material in from different directions. - Eric Logan from Bookmarklet
Eric Logan
Human Exoskeleton, The ‘Body Extender,’ Is ‘Most Complex Wearable Robot’ Ever Built -
Human Exoskeleton, The ‘Body Extender,’ Is ‘Most Complex Wearable Robot’ Ever Built
Engineers in Italy have created what is known as the “Body Extender,” a type of machine that humans can be strapped into like something out of Star Wars. At the Perceptual Robotics Laboratory, also known as Percro, engineers have created a robot that can carry humans, protect them, and move heavy objects as a form of exoskeleton, or skeleton outside of the body. “This is the most complex wearable robot that has been ever built in the world,” Fabio Salsedo of Percro told the BBC. “It’s a device which is able to track the complex movement of the human body and also to amplify the force of the operator.” The machine can lift about 50 kilograms (110 lbs.) in each of its hands, and can exert 10 times the force that the person inside applies. This gives humans super strength: a chance to pick up really heavy objects and throw them much farther than our natural bodies could. - Eric Logan from Bookmarklet
Meat and cheese may be as bad for you as smoking -
Meat and cheese may be as bad for you as smoking
That chicken wing you're eating could be as deadly as a cigarette. In a new study that tracked a large sample of adults for nearly two decades, researchers have found that eating a diet rich in animal proteins during middle age makes you four times more likely to die of cancer than someone with a low-protein diet—a mortality risk factor comparable to smoking. - Halil from Bookmarklet
Does this mean I have to become a vegan? - Halil
I'm interpreting it to mean I can either smoke or eat meat but never both #WhoWantsToLiveForever? - Victor Ganata from iPhone
Even though this study had a lot of problems, there are other studies that suggest high consumption of red meat increases the risk for colon cancer - Victor Ganata from iPhone
Everything causes cancer! - Big Joe Silence
Life is terminal. - Joe
^ This. - Friar Will
The diet they used was over 50% carbs, so it's hard to see how it's a high protein diet. - WoH: Professor MOTHRA
To be honest, I seriously doubt it's the protein that specifically increases your cancer risk. For one thing, it's impossible to survive on a no-protein diet. But certainly red meat, cheese, and processed foods contain other substances that could conceivably increase your risk. - Victor Ganata
Yah WoH, that seems to happen a lot in these kind of studies, the diets are actually high carb in combination with meat and cheese. - Todd Hoff
Even still, that would mean the diet with the higher carb proportion has lower risk. - Victor Ganata
Since you aren't testing all the options, say low carb, you are only saying high protein and high carb is a bad idea, which is not the same thing as saying low carb is a bad idea. - Todd Hoff
That's true. Still, I imagine it would be challenging to eat only protein and fat and still match the caloric intake of the average American. Otherwise what you'd really be testing are high carb/low protein/low fat diets with high calorie counts versus minimal carb/high protein/high fat diets with low calorie counts. - Victor Ganata
It's quite easy to get a target amount calories on a low carb diet. Not sure where is the difficulty. - Todd Hoff
It just seems like you'd have to eat a lot of steaks in one day to get to 2,000 kcal or thereabouts. - Victor Ganata
There's also nuts, eggs, cheese, nearly every vegetable under the sun, plus some fruit. Easy as pie. - Todd Hoff
Well, it looks like the study needs to be done. I know people have looked at how low-carb diets work a lot better than low-fat diets for obesity, but it doesn't look like anyone has really looked at any potential differences in colon cancer risk. - Victor Ganata
Eric Logan
Nobel Prize winner calls peer review “very distorted,” “completely corrupt,” and “simply a regression to the mean” | Retraction Watch -
Nobel Prize winner calls peer review “very distorted,” “completely corrupt,” and “simply a regression to the mean” | Retraction Watch
Sydney Brenner has been talking about what’s wrong with the scientific enterprise since long before he shared the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine in 2002. And in a new interview, Brenner doesn’t hold back, saying that publishers hire “a lot of failed scientists, editors who are just like the people at Homeland Security, little power grabbers in their own sphere.” In a King’s Review Q&A titled “How Academia and Publishing Are Destroying Scientific Innovation,” Brenner says: And of course all the academics say we’ve got to have peer review. But I don’t believe in peer review because I think it’s very distorted and as I’ve said, it’s simply a regression to the mean. I think peer review is hindering science. In fact, I think it has become a completely corrupt system. It’s corrupt in many ways, in that scientists and academics have handed over to the editors of these journals the ability to make judgment on science and scientists. - Eric Logan from Bookmarklet
Zorawar Singh
Optical plasmonic tweezers wins over the manipulation fight with nano particles
Zorawar Singh
Drift mode accelerometers may replace the electrostatic accelerometers for future space observations
Eric Logan
Since the planet Earth doesn't have a birth certificate to record its formation, scientists have spent hundreds of years struggling to determine the age of the planet. By dating the rocks in the ever-changing crust, as well as neighbors such as the moon and visiting meteorites, scientists have calculated that Earth is 4.54 billion years old, with an error range of 50 million years. - Eric Logan from Bookmarklet
4.65 billion + 86 years because a 4C-6C rise in temperature is going to destroy it by 2100 AD. - MRW_8
Now your being sarcastic ;) - Eric Logan
You started it. ;-) - MRW_8
Eric Logan
Climate change: The case of the missing heat : Nature News & Comment -
Climate change: The case of the missing heat : Nature News & Comment
Climate change: The case of the missing heat : Nature News & Comment
Climate sceptics have seized on the temperature trends as evidence that global warming has ground to a halt. Climate scientists, meanwhile, know that heat must still be building up somewhere in the climate system, but they have struggled to explain where it is going, if not into the atmosphere. Some have begun to wonder whether there is something amiss in their models. Now, as the global-warming hiatus enters its sixteenth year, scientists are at last making headway in the case of the missing heat. Some have pointed to the Sun, volcanoes and even pollution from China as potential culprits, but recent studies suggest that the oceans are key to explaining the anomaly. The latest suspect is the El Niño of 1997–98, which pumped prodigious quantities of heat out of the oceans and into the atmosphere — perhaps enough to tip the equatorial Pacific into a prolonged cold state that has suppressed global temperatures ever since. - Eric Logan from Bookmarklet
On a chart of global atmospheric temperatures, the hiatus stands in stark contrast to the rapid warming of the two decades that preceded it. Simulations conducted in advance of the 2013–14 assessment from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggest that the warming should have continued at an average rate of 0.21 °C per decade from 1998 to 2012. Instead, the observed... more... - Eric Logan
Eric Logan
A Nobel laureate's formula for the universe | CERN -
A Nobel laureate's formula for the universe | CERN
Nobel laureate François Englert at CERN last week. The equation on the blackboard describes the Brout-Englert-Higgs mechanism that gives particles mass - Eric Logan from Bookmarklet
He looks so smug. Like no one else has ever thought of that. Oh wait... - Ken Morley
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