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Michael Nielsen
Eric Weinstein: Sheldon Glashow Owes Me a Dollar (and 17 years of interest)
From 'shut up and calculate' to 'shut up and trade' - Michael Nielsen
If this is the marketpalce of ideas, why can't I short you, your theory, and the horse you rode in on? - Michael Nielsen
Using Hayek's notion of hidden knowledge: we want incentives to reveal it. In markets you can make money by revealing it, but science gives little reason to reveal. - Michael Nielsen
why can't you 'go short' on bad ideas? - Cameron Neylon
Scientists manage risk poorly. - Michael Nielsen
Wagers about physics: Weinstein and Jacques Distler had a long conversation last night at dinner about Distler's bet with Tommaso Dorigo. Weinstein's perspective on this, as a finance guy, was pretty interesting. - Chad Orzel
Nice phrase: black swan science. - Michael Nielsen
can I have 'long tail black swan science'? - Cameron Neylon
Wants a language of risk management. - Michael Nielsen
No point supporting high risk science with mediocre outcomes - language of risk management - Cameron Neylon
Pointing out that people tend to think about behaviour in the mean, without thinking so much about the tails. - Michael Nielsen
Large N builds in implicit risk management - Cameron Neylon
Cameron - he's saying that the risk management strateg is _just_ diversification in that perspective. (He was explaining this to me yesterday, and what the distinction is.) - Michael Nielsen
why are a bunch of scientists making even-money bets on the LHC - the money is to be made on long bets - Cameron Neylon
Bright side of income inequality: Lots of people with "immortality budget"-- extra cash to throw at cool stuff just for the sake of posthumous reputation. - Chad Orzel
This is actually a pretty good preview for something Garret Lisi is planning to talk about later today. - Chad Orzel
Clear return in financial markets from early-stage investments. Not so good in science. - Michael Nielsen
Genius: What we call people who would otherwise force us to admit being stupid. - Chad Orzel
"A genius is often what we call someone who would otherwise make us look stupid" - Cameron Neylon
Emphasizes just how seductive groupthink is. No matter how seductive you think it is, it's probably more seductive. - Michael Nielsen
Luggage thing: I wonder how much things like the explosion in air travel factor in to this? - Chad Orzel
Nice quote from Schwinger about the stupidities of peer review. - Michael Nielsen
Key problem: We allow people to block recogntion rather than shorting ideas. Nastiness is a proxy for shorting. MN: This is, in my opinion, an extremely beautiful idea, and way of thinking. Connects to Robin Hanson and prediction markets. - Michael Nielsen
Sometimes, it takes a village idiot... (Basically, you short people who are wrong, and profit from them.) - Michael Nielsen
Ginsparg: Schwinger quote was wrt crazy cold fusion paper, PRL was saving his reputation by keeping him from publishing something stupid. Weinstein: Schwinger was gambling with his reputation, and should've been allowed to. - Chad Orzel
It's http://www.longbets.org for science (?). - Greg Wilson
Point was that Glashow was wrong. - Michael Nielsen
... but Weinstein had no way to profit from it. - Michael Nielsen
"mike dog's really" - Michael Nielsen
I got a screenshot - will upload somehwere to get a date stamp :-) - Cameron Neylon
Economics: The astronomy of the social sciences. - Chad Orzel
Econ joke: Two economists passing Porsche dealership. One says "I love that car!" The other says "No you don't." - Chad Orzel
disruptive thinking is not valued in the scientific system? - Paul Guinnessy
"Most precious resource is not funding. It is space in the gated dominant narrative." - Michael Nielsen
Paul - I guess he means "not sufficiently". If it was, more people would attempt it... it's an extremely interesting alternative to the standard "some people are smarter than others" idea, in my opinion. - Michael Nielsen
myth of the solitary genius, role doesn't include all the support (funding sources, backer, outreach) - Paul Guinnessy
Larry Summers gender thing: Immunity problem rather than ability problem - Chad Orzel
extreme conditions (such as Ph in African lakes) limits diversity based on immunity to conditions. - Paul Guinnessy
tenure should be awarded much much earlier than is currently awarded. Get funding from rich individuals for such a program - Paul Guinnessy
http://www.amazon.com/gp... has several essays discussing the "immunity" hypothesis (on both sides), with citations into primary literature. - Greg Wilson
where selection is based on an immunity rather than an ability you extreme selection effects an monocultures - examples of 2D versus 1D selection - example of flamingos in alkaline african lakes - Cameron Neylon
string theory has failed because it hasn't done what it was supposed to do, requires funding, requires further study, but we need to highlight and show failure as well as success. - Paul Guinnessy
Final Note: This talk was probably the most jargon-heavy of the talks to date. He threw around a lot of financial terms without defining them, and there were a couple of points with some moderately hairy math content. He has some interesting things to say, but they may need some unpacking. - Chad Orzel