 |
|
| FriendFeed is the easiest way to share online. Learn more » |
Deutsche Bank: Beware Sovereign Defaults And The End Of The Dollar Carry Trade In 2010 - #SWF #carrytrade #USD #USDollar #US$ #forex - http://www.businessinsider.com/deutsch...
"Deutsche Bank: Beware Sovereign Defaults And The End Of The Dollar Carry Trade In 2010 Joe Weisenthal|Dec. 3, 2009, 5:55 AM | 110 | Print Tags: Investing, Features, Stock Market, Analyst Research Deutsche Bank is out with an outlook for 2010, which includes various themes and risks investors need to watch out for. The basic idea, laid out by strategists Jim Reid, Mahesh Bhimalingem, and others is that things look good in the beginning of the year, but that trouble spots loom on the horizon. One in particular they highlight is the possibility of a sovereign default, an issue that's come to the foreground since Dubai. They write: Although we’re positive in the near-term, looking at the world today it’s clear that the current macro environment will be difficult to sustain. The markets will need evidence in 2010 that there is an observable path back to fiscal discipline for those countries that have been most aggressive in responding to the fall-out from this crisis. If not we continue...
more...
- V@g38
from Bookmarklet
Why a run on the U.S. dollar will start soon - #USD #USDollar #US$ #forex - http://www.stockhouse.com/Columni...
"A rolling debt collects no moss It's one of those numbers that's so unbelievable you have to actually think about it for a while. Within the next 12 months, the U.S. Treasury will have to refinance $2 trillion in short-term debt. And that's not counting any additional deficit spending, which is estimated to be around $1.5 trillion. Put the two numbers together. Then ask yourself, how in the world can the Treasury borrow $3.5 trillion in only one year? That's an amount equal to nearly 30% of our entire GDP. And we're the world's biggest economy. Where will the money come from? How did we end up with so much short-term debt? Like most entities that have far too much debt – whether sub-prime borrowers, GM, Fannie, or GE – the U.S. Treasury has tried to minimize its interest burden by borrowing for short durations and then "rolling over" the loans when they come due. As they say on Wall Street, "a rolling debt collects no moss." What they mean is, as long as you can extend the debt, you...
more...
- V@g38
from Bookmarklet
Fed's zero rate policy sparking growing complaints - Yahoo! Singapore News - #USD #US$ #USDollar #forex - http://sg.news.yahoo.com/afp...
"WASHINGTON (AFP) - – The Federal Reserve's zero interest rate policy is provoking growing complaints from some economists who argue it is doing little to spark lending activity and may be fueling new asset bubbles. Few expect any immediate hike in the federal funds rate, which has been in a range of zero to 0.25 percent since last December in an effort to jolt the economy from recession. But some economists say the Fed is running the risk of falling into a "liquidity trap" in which monetary policy, no matter how stimulative, fails to spark new lending or growth. Joel Naroff at Naroff Economic Advisors said holding rates at zero has a psychological impact but probably offers little more for the economy than a rate of 1.0 percent, which would under most circumstances be considered exceptionally low. "This idea in the minds of so many people that the Fed needs to keep rates at zero through 2010 is very dangerous," said Naroff. "I would be concerned if we are still at zero percent next...
more...
- V@g38
from Bookmarklet
Economics 101 and US$ "Carry Trade" in 0% interest-rate environment - #USD #US$ #USDollar #forex #carrytrade - http://www.dnaindia.com/money...
"A double bubble Vivek KaulThursday, November 26, 2009 3:02 IST Email Print Share "So how do we de-addict?" she asked as I sat down for tea after a hard day. Trust her to ask the wrong question at the right time, I thought, but kept my calm. "You know, relationships are like investment bubbles. The bigger a bubble grows, the more money an investor makes. Similarly, in a relationship, the better we know each other, the more fun it is. But the trick in a bubble, in order to make money, is to get out at the right time, a little before it bursts," I said. "Investment bubbles? Where are we really heading towards V?" she asked. "That's exactly what I am trying to answer -- where are we heading towards? So let me get into what right now might seem like irrelevant stuff, but you will understand as we go along. I am sure you must have heard about the dollar carry trade by now." "Yes I have. The Federal Reserve, the central bank of the US, has cut interest rates to almost zero percent. This has...
more...
- V@g38
from Bookmarklet
US zero rate policy risky - #USD #US$ #USDollar #forex #carrytrade - http://www.straitstimes.com/Breakin...
"Nov 26, 2009 US zero rate policy risky What other analysts say: Ed Yardeni at Yardeni Research said the zero-rate policy is no longer working. 'I don't want to sound ungrateful, but I would like to send another message to the Fed about its current policy: 'Thanks for nothing,'' Mr Yardeni said in a note to clients. 'The Fed's zero interest-rate policy may be inadvertently depressing rather than stimulating the economy.' Because of the low rates and weak dollar, Mr Yardeni said that 'asset bubbles are already making a comeback in stocks and commodities around the world. The biggest bubble may be in government securities.' He said the central bank 'should start raising rates and resist providing any guidance on the likely pace of tightening. Providing strong guidance as to the likely direction of monetary policy simply encourages speculators to take more risk.' Cary Leahey, senior economist at the research firm Decision Economics, said the majority of analysts believe it is too soon to...
more...
- V@g38
from Bookmarklet
Es müssen von der Regierung schleunigst finanzpolitische Signale kommen.Und das nicht wegen Steuern. #banken #finanzmarkt #euro #usdollar
World Governments Stage Major Dollar Rescue Attempt - #forex #USD #USDollar #US$ - http://www.businessinsider.com/world-g...
"World Governments Stage Dramatic Dollar Rescue Attempt Joe Weisenthal|Nov. 12, 2009, 5:00 AM | 32 | Print Tags: Markets, Money, Economy, Treasury Leaders the world over may talk about wanting to dump the dollar, but as we've seen, as long as it remains the currency, they don't want it to weak. If Bernanke is going to print, they're going to print to keep up, keep their currencies weak, and keep their exporters competitive. WSJ: Thailand, South Korea, Russia and the Philippines have been snapping up dollars this week in order to hold down the value of their currencies, traders said Wednesday, as the U.S. currency wallowed near 15-month lows. In Latin America, Brazil's finance minister said the country's currency remained too strong, sparking speculation that the government would intensify recent efforts to curb the real's ascent. On Tuesday, Taiwan banned foreign investors from parking time deposits in the country in an effort to ease upward pressure on the local currency. China, as...
more...
- V@g38
from Bookmarklet
Plea to reduce demand for dollar reserves http://www.ft.com/cms... #USDollar $
"The Dethroning of the U.S. Dollar Will Happen Sooner Than You Think By Keith Fitz-Gerald Investment Director Money Morning/The Money Map Report By now virtually every investor has heard the argument that the U.S. dollar is slated to lose its status as the global reserve currency. And that’s good – as far as it goes. What’s bad is that many of these investors have yet to latch onto the fact that this could happen much sooner than many people realize and in a manner that will catch most by surprise. Let’s take a look at the three key reasons that this shift away from the U.S. dollar happening – and sooner rather than later: 1. The Asian Region Currency Partnership: Japan, once the staunchest of U.S. allies, is leading the charge to form a regional currency partnership based on closer ties between itself, China and South Korea. Ostensibly part of the second trilateral “leader’s meeting,” that happened earlier this year, financial cooperation was front and center on the agenda (at...
more...
- V@g38
from Bookmarklet
Jeff's Tfeeds - You: Dollar hegemony for another century – Telegraph Blogs - #USD #US$ #USDollar.. http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance...
Dollar hegemony for another century – Telegraph Blogs - #USD #US$ #USDollar #forex - http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance...
"Dollar hegemony for another century By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Economics Last updated: October 21st, 2009 21 Comments Comment on this article Let me stick my neck out. The dollar will still be the world’s dominant reserve currency in 2030, sharing a degree of leadership in uneasy condominium with the Chinese yuan. It will then regain much of its hegemonic status as the 21st century unfolds. It may indeed end the century even stronger than it was at the start. The aging crisis in Asia — and indeed the outright demographic implosion in Japan and China, not to mention China’s water crisis — will soon be obvious to everybody. Talk of Oriental supremacy will start to sound overblown at first, and then preposterous. Japan is about to go bankrupt. It is on the cusp of a fiscal crisis that will change perceptions of Asia dramatically. The IMF says gross public debt will reach 218pc of GDP this year. This is compounding very fast. It will be 246pc in 2014. The Hatoyama government is spending...
more...
- V@g38
from Bookmarklet
"October 19, 2009 , 5:07 PM America’s Chinese disease (not quite what you think) Fed chairman are expected to speak in code, so that reading their remarks is a bit like watching the famous scene in Annie Hall where the conversation between the lovers is subtitled with what they’re really saying. So when Ben Bernanke says this: Another set of lessons that Asian economies took from the crisis of the 1990s may be more problematic. Because strong export markets helped Asia recover from that crisis, and because many countries in the region were badly hurt by sharp reversals in capital flows, the crisis strengthened Asia’s commitment to export-led growth, backed up with large current account surpluses and mounting foreign exchange reserves. In many respects, that model has served Asia well, contributing to the rapid growth rates in the region over the past decade. In fact, it bears repeating that evidence from the world over shows trade openness to be an important source of economic growth....
more...
- V@g38
from Bookmarklet
Hong Kong Monetary Authority Sells $400 million to defend US Dollar. (At least someone is) #Japan #USDollar # Economy - http://twitter.com/GenRach...
Hong Kong Monetary Authority Sells $400 million to defend US Dollar. (At least someone is) #Japan #USDollar # Economy - http://twitter.com/GenRach...
A time-honored expression had it that if you owed your banker a thousand dollars, you had a problem, while if you owed your bank a million dollars, the bank had a problem: Delinking Currency From Gold Has Turned Trade Partners Into Enemies - #USD #US$ #USDollar #banking - http://www.businessinsider.com/delinki...
"Delinking Currency From Gold Has Turned Trade Partners Into Enemies Charles Goyette|Oct. 15, 2009, 5:18 PM | 667 |9 Print Tags: Investing, Commodities, Money (The following is an excerpt from the author's book THE DOLLAR MELTDOWN: SURVIVING THE IMPENDING CURRENCY CRISIS WITH GOLD, OIL, AND OTHER UNCONVENTIONAL INVESTMENTS) A time-honored expression had it that if you owed your banker a thousand dollars, you had a problem, while if you owed your bank a million dollars, the bank had a problem. Adjusted for today’s cheaper dollars, the adage could stand reformulation: If you owe your bank ten thousand dollars, you have a problem. If you owe your bank ten million dollars, the bank has a problem. As a key banker for an indebted United States, China has a very big problem. But as institutional holders of bundled mortgages are learning, eventually there comes a time to face up to reality and square the books. Like codependents in a standoff, the United States and China constantly bicker...
more...
- V@g38
from Bookmarklet
Why the U.S. dollar's decline means a rise in global fortunes - The Globe and Mail - #USD #USDollar #US$ #forex - http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-...
"Why the U.S. dollar's decline means a rise in global fortunes In the search for post-crisis economic stability, a weaker greenback is widely thought to be a key component Share with friends Print or License Recommend | 32 Times See also: Firms scramble to counter high dollar Stephen Harper frets over dollar Why the weak greenback is a threat Article Comments (66) Kevin Carmichael Ottawa — From Wednesday's Globe and Mail Published on Tuesday, Oct. 13, 2009 10:21PM EDT Last updated on Wednesday, Oct. 14, 2009 8:14AM EDT It's both a symptom and a cure. The acceleration of the U.S. dollar's decline in recent days is creating anxiety for exporters in Canada, Europe and Japan. But in the search to create a post-crisis economy that's less prone to financial catastrophe, the U.S. dollar's decline is widely accepted as a necessary ingredient. Before the crisis, countries grew overly reliant on U.S. consumers, who created an unsteady platform for the global economy based on debt-fuelled...
more...
- V@g38
from Bookmarklet
U.S. Stands By as Dollar Falls - WSJ.com - #USD #US$ #USDollar #forex - http://online.wsj.com/article...
"By JON HILSENRATH and MARK GONGLOFF The dollar fell to a 14-month low against other currencies Thursday, intensifying a trend that the Obama administration has publicly suggested it opposes -- but which it appears prepared to tolerate quietly. View Full Image AFP/Getty Images Many of America's trading partners, however, are pushing the other way. In Asia, traders said central banks in South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia and Hong Kong again intervened to slow the dollar's fall against their currencies. Asian officials fear that the dollar's fall could crimp their export-driven economies. "The [Thai] baht has appreciated a little too rapidly compared with our fundamentals," said Suchada Kirakul, assistant governor of the Bank of Thailand. In Europe, where the strength of the euro is clouding prospects for export growth, the president of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, said Thursday that the stated U.S. "'strong-dollar policy' is extremely important...
more...
- V@g38
from Bookmarklet
Destruction of US dollar value plotted by Arab States, China and others: Breaking story - #USD #USDollar #US$ #forex - http://www.examiner.com/x-2684-...
"Destruction of US dollar value plotted by Arab States, China and others: Breaking story October 6, 5:30 PMLaw Enforcement ExaminerJim Kouri Previous 1 comment Print Email RSS Subscribe In a disturbing breaking news story, Arab states initiated a covert operation with China, Russia and France to stop using the US currency for oil trading and topple the US economy, according to British journalist Robert Fisk. In a shocking news report, Fisk revealed that oil-producing Arab States "are planning -- along with China, Russia, Japan and France -- to end US dollar dealings for oil, moving instead to a basket of currencies including the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, the euro, gold and a new, unified currency planned for nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council, including Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar." Allegedly, secret meetings were held by finance ministers and central bank officials in China, Brazil, Japan and Russia, to brainstorm on a strategy to replace the US dollar with...
more...
- V@g38
from Bookmarklet
RT @gold_tracker @zerohedge Memos Indicate Oil SDR Pricing Shift wld B"Most Damaging" Serious Mkt Reaction http://www.zerohedge.com/article... #USDollar
RT @mparent77772 Obama cancels meeting with #DalaiLama 'to keep #China happy' http://bit.ly/3oJ0WC #USdollar #US - http://twitter.com/activis...
Riding the China Tiger - Barrons.com - #AndyXie #China #USDollar - http://online.barrons.com/article...
"Bubble nemesis Andy Xie says look out for a fourth-quarter correction in soaring China markets. Article New Comments + TEXT SIZE − PRINT EMAIL SHARE Digg facebook twitter LinkedIn StumbleUpon Yahoo! Buzz MySpace del.icio.us NewsVine Mixx REPRINTS GET RSS "PONZI SCHEME" gets thrown around a lot since Bernie Madoff made it part of the popular vernacular but it's worth paying attention when Andy Xie uses it. "Chinese asset markets have become a giant Ponzi scheme, writes the highly regarded former Morgan Stanley Asian economist, Andy Xie. "The prices are supported by appreciation expectation. As more people and liquidity are sucked in, the resulting surging prices validate the expectation, which prompts more people to join the party. This sort of bubble ends when there isn't enough liquidity to feed the beast." (Hat tip to Barry Ritholtz's The Big Picture blog (www.ritholtz.com) for bringing Xie's piece to my attention.) The Shanghai Composite has nearly doubled from its lows last...
more...
- V@g38
from Bookmarklet
Ewave Count on the US Dollar Suggests Move Up is Coming #ewave #usdollar @myen http://viigo.im/0pf8 - http://twitter.com/tkinder...
Ewave Count on the US Dollar Suggests Move Up is Coming #ewave #usdollar @myen http://viigo.im/0pf8 - http://twitter.com/tkinder...
Other ways to read this feed:
