Simon Cast › Comments

"Ummm...I'm not sure why you make a reference to Scotland in the piece. The London Array is for the Thames estuary which is South East England and not off the Scottish coast." - Simon Cast

"Can't login via Disqus - annoying. Anyway... I think that a big determinate on shift to streamed content is going to remain broadband links. I've shifted lots of my TV/video viewing to my laptop but problems remain and they are mostly around the last mile. Even with 8mb BT the viewing quality isn't great and badly effected by network load. Come the point of 20+ mb (or more likely 50+ mb) with a contention ratio of 20:1 rather than 50:1 or 100:1 we see today, then shift to streaming will take off." - Simon Cast

"Thank you. It seems Tesco has made the first move. It will be very interesting to see how this goes." - Simon Cast

Fascinating use case of Facebook wall messaging...it is very similar to Twitter use case for those not using twitter but more important is the hint of creating filters or notification system that alerts you when these implicit messages are created and/or alert based on users location - Simon Cast

The melding of bits and atoms continues...this will disrupt manufacturing and supply chains considerably. - Simon Cast

This is another step in the on-demand manufacturing. It will be interesting to see what is made using this service. Through in an API and... - Simon Cast

Dennis makes some interesting points however, the converse is true. Mike can counter-sue in the US and potentially set in motion a situation where Sam is barred from entering the US. Should Mike contested it? Probably. I think the contest should have been on jurisdiction rather than the complaint. - Simon Cast

"I do see Google dropping the ball increasingly and being unable to break free of their previous mindset to explore new ways of doing things is a significant cause of this. I can even see a case where search as we know it fades away." - Simon Cast

Somewhat closing the barn door after the horse has bolted but still a good idea as these institutions require a lot of work to fix. I would be fascinated to see who and what institutions and the connections the candidates had with existing managers and board. I suspect that many are from the "old boy network" who where patiently unsuited for the roles. - Simon Cast

Interesting opportunity here. A sophisticated family organisation tool could find traction with families that have to coordinate many moving parts. - Simon Cast

Still thing housing prices will reach a low 30's before bottoming out which equates to about another 10% in decline. Which funnily enough puts housing back near the mean. - Simon Cast

"There is something around venture capital invested that returns earnings yearly. Not all companies are going to exit but many will do well enough to return profit every year. Some sort of capital investment model that supports this would hoover up a lot of companies that currently go for traditional VC funding when they shouldn't which should allow VCs to focus on companies better suited to the traditional VC model. I think that a lot of the SaaS companies are likely to fall into this category. They need some early capital to get the SaaS offering developed to the point they can accept subscription revenue but after that it hums along nicely. The growth rate is never spectacular but it is health and the company returns a profit. Perhaps something like this: preferred shares with a set return (say 8%) that only kicks in after 3 years and lasts for 5 years at which point the preferred shares are converted to ordinary shares. Potentially, there would be agreement for the business to..." - Simon Cast

"The stats from their site say 841 reports in the last week, 1387 fixed in the past month and 38,951 updates to reports. Compete shows (http://siteanalytics.compete.com/fixmyst......) about 3k visitors with a ramp up over the last couple of months. I think mobility and immediacy is key to getting these services to really work well. People will make reports on the spot but are very unlikely to wait until they get to a computer to make a report. I think as more and more people have smart phones these services will become a big factor in neighbourhood engagement." - Simon Cast

"There is a UK based service that does something very similar called FixMyStreet (http://www.fixmystreet.com/). You locate the problem on the map, fill in details and it is then submitted to the relevant local council. It then lets you track when the issues are fixed. They even have an iPhone app that allows you to take pictures, tag with GPS coordinates before submitting. I could see that adding in a twitter feed would make this even more effective as the issues become more public." - Simon Cast

Nice to have some evidence to backup my view on home ownership. Interestingly, it points to some interesting policies that would help flexibility and fairness: * reduce stamp duties & similar taxes to make it easier to move house * provide a mixed environment of rental housing located around cities * focus on producing rental properties that provide a mixture of home-owner benefits and rental benefits - Simon Cast

"That is odd as with the power-law distribution the number of exits for very low amounts is orders of magnitude larger than that in the middle. Normal distribution can still have exits at either end merely the number is really, really low. I would like to have a look at the data as it contradicts what I would expect. Not that I am saying that I am right merely that it contradicts. Bear in mind I am talking about the number of exits as various valuations. Admittedly, it could be that exits are random. The distribution of exits is neither normal nor a power-law. The current financial crisis is a good warning not to get carried away with models." - Simon Cast

"I wouldn't assume a power of exits. From what I remember of the stats from StrategyEye, I think a Guassian (normal) distribution is more representative. The distribution would be skewed towards the lower end (probably in the are between about 30 to 100m exits). The number of low exits is small just as the number of high end exits is small as well. I can see that the bulk of the return is concentrated in the bell (albeit skewed) as that is the point at which 3+ returns are being made, whether or not the absolute amount of return is achieved at that point. If a skewed normal distribution is real then it means that there is a point of company valuation that should act as a break on VC investment. Anything above that point is likely to result in a very low return for the VC. Funds that investing in companies with valuations for less than $20m are likely to produce decent returns over time as the probability of exiting decently is higher than investing in companies with valuations above..." - Simon Cast

The idea is along the write lines (snarkiness of register notwithstanding) but the aim should be to make the eHealth Records a common protocol consisting of a standard data structure and standard API calls that all eHealth systems have to implement. - Simon Cast

Ummmm...could he be more wrong? The interenet still hasn't filtered through to other industries. There is huge amount of money to be maded to bring various information technologies into new industries and economic sectors. Ones that will create new wealth (and upturning those sectors). The real issue is whether the VCs will take the plunge and invest in the startups that meld information and matter. - Simon Cast

Unfortunately, the science is still murky. I think though there is enough to decide to make changes however, I think the goal should reducing energy intensity rather than focusing merely on carbon - Simon Cast

"It is easy to fall into the trap of looking at what could go wrong rather than what could go right. Of course the issue is the Government getting right (which I'm afraid is likely to be low). That is what the opposition should be focused on. Not ROI or how is it going to be paid for. NGN is something which creates demand and trying to use current data points to forecast financials is pointless." - Simon Cast

"The trend to Y-combinator funding is predictive of changes to the venture funding model (On a side note I think USV should start one in partnership with someone but that is for another time). Many of the VC funded companies aren't ever going to do well as an investment. They are good companies and will return a steady revenue stream over time but a significant capital gains is unlikely. Unfortunately, they are crammed into equity raising model that isn't suited to them. There needs to be a third leg to the venture funding class. This third leg would allow a group of investors to invest in an early stage company with the payback being regular dividends rather than an exit. The dividends may not occur for say first 2-3 years but must occur after and must be paid out before the founders. This leaves an asset class with Y-Comb/SeedCamp-like funds providing the initial prototype/on-the-job training for new coys, which can then either be funded for exit (traditional VC) or funded for..." - Simon Cast

I have to agree that Paul Krugman is going to far with this. I don't think securitisation per sea is wrong rather those who did it soon lost sight of how it worked and where its value to the broader economy lay. - Simon Cast

When you have to completely different personalities (Umair Haque and Hugh McLeod) arrive at the same conclusion from two totally different directions you have to pay attention - Simon Cast

The not-investing list is good. Helps to focus on the VCs that are funding. - Simon Cast

Interesting video. I wonder at what point (3:1, 4:1) does the pattern break down? - Simon Cast

I like the basic concept of Y Combinator for getting very early stage (i.e. idea/prototype) companies off the ground. I can see this polishing approach might improve the general run of companies that go for venture funding hence it makes sense for VCs to invest rather small sums in companies like Y Combinator who are setup to polish the diamonds rather than doing it themselves. Priming the deal flow pipe rather than hoping for someone to come along. - Simon Cast

This is a variant on Umair Haques Edge Economy concept and the shift from industrial/centralised economy to edge value creation - Simon Cast

Wow - if the developments here can be rolled out quickly it makes all sorts of things really, really practical. - Simon Cast

"Hi Tom, Here is an example of splitting savings and lending aspects of banks. Spaarbod in the Netherlands. http://springwise.com/financi..." - Simon Cast