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Steven Hodson
Happy early adopters don’t equal success - http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r...
Thanks! - directeur
You're definitely right! If I was about to satisfy the noisy Scoble, then my app for smart-per-user filtering content won't have any reason to be. [EDIT:] Robert sure knows how much I respect him, We just deeply disagree on the signal/noise question :) - directeur
Psssh. I love the cranky old fart, but it's pretty important in the context of such a post to disclose that the founders of Friendfeed already hit the freaking Google jackpot and are obviously in this for the glory of building good product and aren't worrying about the $$$ *or* the VCs right now. Twitter is a completely different animal on that score. - Robert Seidman
I know my disqus comment will come back to FF but wanted to get it in context here as well: Exactly what I've been saying Steven. It's all a question of need and each of us has different needs, and even our own needs will change over time. There will not be a golden tool which keeps everyone happy so we just have to accept that our own tool of choice may not float everyones boat. The more we demand from our tools the less simple they become and the harder it is for your third group of users to get involved with them. Twitter is simple which is why it works for people. Okay, you can dress it up and make it more complex with third party stuff but the core service itself hasn't got carried away. Maybe the person next door might want some kind of better linking/sharing (inline images a la Plurk comes to mind) but overall it is a solid foundation. Developers need to resist the urge to add more bells and whistles or they will limit their market while trying to appease the early adopters. - Colin Walker
most of my suggestions for FriendFeed and other tools comes from showing other people and hearing their pushback. Also, this viewpoint has been proven wrong over and over by history. But I am tired of fighting about it. - Robert Scoble
I think this makes it pretty clear that FF's entry to the mainstream depends on the like of Twitter et al doing the same. Only then will FF have enough Traction. - Roberto Bonini
Well I think Scoble has some interesting points about Friend Feed. It is not just about what users see but what was conceived by developers. - Igor The Troll יִצְחָק
I don't think that Steven meant Scoble especially, he gives examples on people's needs. My needs as a user are different from Scoble's ones and many of other users. That doesn't makes Scoble, me or anyone else bad or good... It's our web, each one his own fashion. - directeur
If we were having this discussion in 1977 we'd be talking about personal computers (I had the exact same conversation as this back in Jr. High when the geeks unboxed the first Apple IIs there). In 1994: it would have been about the Web. 1996? IM. 2000? Blogging (I thought blogging wouldn't be that popular cause only the geeks were doing it -- seriously, Dori Smith asked me to put a conference presentation about it onto our CNET Builder.com Live conference schedule and I refused). - Robert Scoble
of course happy early adopters don't mean success. however, if you don't have happy early adopters/evangelists you won't ever reach the mainstream. crossing the divide that exists between early adopters and mainstream, called the "chasm", by some, is the greatest challenge for companies IMO. let's see how ff does with its customer development. - Brooks Bayne
One thing I have to say is, we need to learn from each other and build this network by consensus, including what the developers have envisioned. We all come from different walks of life. While some have certain experiences in one thing, others are skilled in something else.. - Igor The Troll יִצְחָק
Interesting post...I left my comments on site. I had to laugh though, because the Adsense ad accompanying the post was: "Fart noises. Compare Fart sounds and other sound cards." Doesn't take much to crack me up, I guess: http://skitch.com/ginmak3... - Ginger Makela Riker
huh, winex'a mobile version doesn't show comments. I think what early adopters do is push the envelope of technology which has the pleasant side effect of dragging the mainstream center further into the warm embrace of the future. It is a slow process and the sites which push that envelope aren't necessarily the ones that gain mainstream acceptance. However if they can hang in long enough they certainly are well positioned with a motivated userbase and experience. - felix from fftogo
@felix I had to turn off the mobile comments because the plugin I am using doesn't play nice with Disqus and overrides it. Daniel knows about the problem and is looking into a solution - sorry about that. - Steven Hodson
@Robert look for a post later today that will look at the flipside of what you are saying ... I still think that as wide as your influence might be it still is narrow in relation to the rest of the internet users. It does make for a good discussion though doesn't it :) - Steven Hodson
@directeur you are partly right that I wasn't totally point the post at Robert the problem is that he is - fortunately or unfortunately depending on your viewpoint - a flashpoint for this type of discussion. - Steven Hodson
Steven: it's not +my+ influence that matters. I also hate the early adopter moniker. I'm an early adopter in some things, a late adopter in others. My dad has a 25-year-old TV, for instance, but he's ahead of me in many other areas like stock market software. - Robert Scoble
@Ginger it says a lot for AdSense contextual advertising doesn't it and you're not alone I probably would have laughed my ass off as well. - Steven Hodson
I'd rather compare passionate people vs. non passionate. That more accurately describes my role and why new technologies never start with the non passionates, but depend on them for growing the market. - Robert Scoble
@Julian I look forward to the post - Steven Hodson
There is no example in technology that I know of that didn't first start with the passionate ones first and then move to the non passionates. Can you think of a technology or company that got popular with non-passionate people first? I can't think of one. In fact, listening to marketing experts like Kathy Sierra, Guy Kawasaki, Seth Godin, etc, you MUST have passionates on board first. - Robert Scoble
@Robert I am not saying that passion isn't a driving force .. I don't believe I ever said that and I agree developers must look to them to get traction - especially now - but just because the early adopters get all hot and bothered over something it doesn't mean that the product will be successful. Early adopter requirements are totally different that Cousin Joey's requirement. If it was the case of early adopters and all their suggestions do you think that MySpace would have been the force it is. - Steven Hodson
Steven: the problem is there's no universal pool of "early adopters." MySpace instead looked at "influentials." People who tell other people about stuff. They reached out to influentials in a BIG way, getting celebrities and bands on board early. MySpace's CTO told me that was crucial to their success. - Robert Scoble
The problem with defining the world through early adopters is that Dell's early adopters are a lot different than MySpace's early adopters. I think influentials (people who tell other people about stuff) and passionates (people who get excited) are better ways to look at things. Early adopter behavior is important there too. I am rarely first to things, though. Even FF I was late to (I think both you and Louis were way ahead of me here). - Robert Scoble
how about the word progressive vs. passionate? i believe we are progressives. i believe passionate is more a measure of something else. scoble, you have established yourself on top (in a good way), but it more career related. I would dare say that somebody in another career (e.g., dancer, violinist, actor) may eventually find the twitter/ff universe and become fully consumed (or passionate) by it (like you)... - Pokai
But happy early adopters would spread the word to their friends. It's always better to have happy early adopters than angry or disappointed early adopters right? My take is that startups should aim to please early adopters first, and then slowly evolve their business model to attract the late adopters. You need a mix, in order to succeed. - Winston Teo
@Robert - but itsn't there a fundemental difference between "early adopters" and "influentials". The way that I would see it (and yes please correct me if I am wrong :) ) is that the early adopters are the ones who suggest to add this feature and add that feature always full of suggestions of how they think a product *should* be improved. Where as the influentials are just as you say - people who talk about the product to all their friends but are not inclined to look at a product from a technical or developmental point of view. Look I'm not saying what I wrote yesterday is correct - it is my assumption s or the way I see things as they roll by me. As such I am also open to rethink just about any position as long as the discussion points are logical and reasonable. Trying to change a viewpoint based on "feelings" doesn't work. So I am more than open to being made wrong on this. - Steven Hodson
Is it important if happy early adopters = success or more important that unhappy early adopters usually signal failure? Sometimes it takes a long time to know. The Xerox STAR had a great GUI/mouse system. Xerox didn't succeed with it. Apple did. Apple "failed" with the Newton. Palm had more success with something similar, although now there is the iPhone. every product/service i was happy with as an early adopter that failed, failed because it lacked a good business model or someone made something better (or both). - Robert Seidman
influentials are usually early adopters. It's important to know WHAT to listen to. If you ask Porsche owners what they want they'll probably say things like "smoother ride, more headroom, bigger trunk, more leg room." Well, they just designed a Volvo. On the other hand, some early adopters will also say "faster, better road feel, better acceleration, etc." Those are the early adopters to listen to and those are the ones that really decide your success. Not all early adopters are equal. :-) - Robert Scoble
I once managed to have what's said to be the most stolen library book in the world: "Breakthrough advertising" which I very strongly advise. Gene Schwartz ; the author says: You don't create a need, you never create a need. Your sales letter is the connexion between the product and the need, but you will never create "the need", you just give answers and sell them - directeur
The first 2 web browsers didn't get critical mass. The "third one" took off... - Mitchell Tsai