A decade until they can simulate human intelligence they say. Unless they're going to try to simulate Glenn Beck's brain, in which case I give it two weeks.
- Richard S. Crawford
Reviews of Issue #10 of "Shimmer", wherein my story "The Bride Price" appears. I suggest putting great stock in the review from SF Review, and ignoring the review from IROSF (as if those guys would know a good story if it walked up and kicked them in the butt).
- Richard S. Crawford
I find conspiracy theories fascinating, even if I'm the kind of guy who thinks Kennedy was shot by a lone gunman with a single weapon. This article is fascinating for its coverage of conspiracy theories and predictive personality types.
- Richard S. Crawford
Cholera, Spinal Meningitis, Ebola, AIDS, and Dengue Fever are all much larger and deadlier outbreaks than Swine Flu. So why are we panicking about Swine Flu?
- Richard S. Crawford
"*rolls eyes* Just wondering if Oklahoma likes their interstate highway system, or if they will try to secede from that as well. Like the American taxpayer in general, people would like to have Federal benefits without having to pay for them."
- Richard S. Crawford
I've been pondering getting a motorcycle when I hit my goal weight. This one is particularly amazing. Probably can't get it anywhere, though.
- Richard S. Crawford
It seems like I've seen more jokes about swine flu panic than I have panic itself. It's mostly my circle of friends, who tend to be more intelligent and also more cynical than the rest of you slobs.
- Richard S. Crawford
I find it appalling that there are still folks like Santelli who continue to bring up the boogeyman of the "welfare queen" and such. In my (admittedly limited) experience working with welfare recipients, such folks, while they exist, are few and far between. It's a cop-out for people who want to justify to themselves why they don't want to give to charity or to the homeless guy on the streetcorner.
- Richard S. Crawford
Yeah, Richard. We are certainly seeing this outlook in just about every conversation that is taking place on the current economic crisis. "I'm doing OK, so why should I help out the idiots who aren't?"
- Alex Scoble
I'm reminded of Mel Brooks in "History of the World, Part 1."
- Kevin Pedraja
*thinking I just shouldn't take the bait and wade into this conversation yet again* [edit] I'm not going to take my own advice. Okay, let me be clear. There is nuance to this debate and I'm getting a bit frustrated with being painted as heartless. I am *not* for keeping people in homes they can't afford. Yes, it is awful but sometimes you make mistakes. And you have to be responsible for them. However, I empathize and *do* support ways to lessen the pain of learning from these mistakes.
- AJ Kohn
It seems like the same political tactic used again and again. Highlight some statistically small or insignificant part of something that has a strong emotional impact. Like OMG PORKBARREL SPENDING! When in reality earmarks were a very small percent of previous spending. The idea of pork spending is so charged though, it occludes any reasoned debate on why our deficit spending was so bad.
- mikepk
I'm not in the US but I find this very annoying. For the past few decades we have been told that we are failures if we do not own a house and go on foreign holidays twice a year etc, we have been given 100% mortgages with hardly any questions asked and told buy this and pay later and once you are at it get a loan on your positive equity and buy yourself a flashy car, everything was too easy. Now things are bad so we blame people who were conned into it and not whoever conned them.
- M F
Keeping the home values artificially high - long term - only helps the banks. Home values are out of line with income. I want a future where owning a home isn't like putting an anchor around your neck and 'mortgaging' your future. Call me heartless but I want affordable housing in the future, not a continuing over-priced market where we - as a country - continue to line the pockets of banks who contributed to the problem.
- AJ Kohn
Oh, and BTW, many of these folks are really the pot calling the kettle black variety since SO many times it's based on ... "what about the home values of people not effected!" So, really, many aren't really concerned about the "poor", they're concerned about their own assets. Lets talk about helping these folks after they're out of the overpriced home. Oh, what, that doesn't fit your personal agenda of maintaining *your* home value? *yes, I'm grouchy today*
- AJ Kohn
AJ, since I don't know what your previous comments have been, just a question: If you think inflated home values are the problem, do you a see a role for the government in directing/mandating/facilitating the renegotiation of home values to more realistic levels so existing homeowners can stay in them? Assuming those home owners can afford the new mortgage?
- Kevin Pedraja
@Kevin: If we're talking about principal forgiveness for homeowners - no. To me that's an artificial way of trying to find the right value when the market should be telling us the value. In addition, it *is* a reward to those in over valued homes while others are essentially penalized for staying on the sidelines. In my area people bought homes for $900K two years ago which now go for $600K and will likely go for $500K by the end of the year.
- AJ Kohn
The problem I have is that people insist throwing people out on the street is actually a pragmatic solution. You can let prices drop (and they are dropping—in Southern California we're approaching prices as they were back in 2001) while restructuring the debts of those who can't afford what they're paying. I'm not going to buy the idea that all these people don't have jobs and can't make any payments at all. I fail to see how making people homeless helps the economy. There's no room here for moralizing.
- Victor Ganata
Mark, if someone is behind on their mortgage to the point of facing foreclosure, do you *really* think they're going to be able to gather enough cash for one month rent + one month's rent for deposit on a rental?
- FFing Enigma (aka Tina)
@Victor: Why can't they rent? Statistics indicate that large numbers of Americans pay *way* too much of income toward a mortgage. Our savings rate went negative! Restructuring so they can scrape by and be "house poor" only keeps them enslaved *and* keeps them from contributing positively to the economy through consumer spending. Why are we working *so* hard at this instead of helping people get out of the bad situation - find them rentals, lessening the blow of walking away etc.
- AJ Kohn
How about if the government paid moving expenses, first and security for all the new renters and the housing prices went to market level.
- MVB (Curmudgeon of FF)
@Mark: I was thinking of a 'transitional rental credit' myself. I think that's a nice idea.
- AJ Kohn
I guess the question at that point, Mark & AJ, becomes the how. How do you determine who qualifies, where they can move (after all, do you want to pay their expenses to a high end penthouse?), who oversees the application and the disbursement, who is going to check to make sure they actually moved and didn't just take the money, etc etc etc? The actual costs involved in setting up and running a transitional rental credit system are staggering.
- FFing Enigma (aka Tina)
Welfare Queens were dreamed up by Reagan's henchmen in an effort to demonize black people and whip white people into a frenzy.
- Nation Hahn
I'd go with no qualifier other than foreclosure. You lose your house, you get the rental expenses paid. No if, ands, or buts.
- MVB (Curmudgeon of FF)
What about hotel costs between foreclosure and finding a rental? The rental market is getting flooded at this point. And what about people who can't find a rental because of the credit check (i.e. you've been foreclosed on and now are being turned down for rentals).
- FFing Enigma (aka Tina)
Agree with Chris on both points. A credit waiver, and an "As of today" starting point. Also, Chris floated the idea around of leaving them in the foreclosed house as renters. A great idea, really. Think of the money we could save ourselves.
- MVB (Curmudgeon of FF)
AJ/Mark: Of course, the rental strategy you propose assumes there's enough available rental inventory to accommodate all of the people likely to lose their homes. Or are you presuming that the banks will rent out the properties they're repossessing?
- Kevin Pedraja
@Kevin: As more people move out of foreclosed homes, the renters who have been saving will buy in at a lower value, freeing up some of the rental inventory. And the rental vacancy rate is about 10% right now and there are some 33.5 million rental units, so the vacancy rate might go down but with credit forgiveness many of these folks can transition back into a home soon (at a more sane rate). The rent the home idea is also interesting.
- AJ Kohn
Well, I still think this works more favorably for the banks. First, they participated in and benefited from the (artificial) run up of housing prices and made boatloads of money on it. Now, lots and lots of people who DIDN'T take out risky mortgages but are losing their homes anyway because of the economy are being kicked out of their homes. The banks will re-sell those home and continue to earn profits on them. All those people who were foreclosed on will essentially see their credit ruined,
- Kevin Pedraja
... So they won't be buying back into the market, even when home values re-set.
- Kevin Pedraja
@Kevin: I have stated many times that some amount of credit remediation should take place so people can buy back into the market. To me, the amount of remediation should relate to the amount you invested in the home. So those who did zero down get far less than someone who did 10%, but everyone should get something (though not a total pass) so they can save up and buy in at a sane level.
- AJ Kohn
Chris, I get it. But there seems to be a punitive aspect to the approach of kicking existing homeowners out of their homes without even considering the idea of renegotiation. If the banks are already going to suffer the loss once a home is foreclosed on and the property will have to be resold at a new market rate, then why NOT give the existing homeowner the chance to stay if they can afford the new mortgage?
- Kevin Pedraja
Of course, that would mean all those wonderful fees that banks and mortgage brokers get when a new mortgage is entered into won't be there. But that can't be part of the reason they're against this, could it...?
- Kevin Pedraja
Another question is who gets to decide what is a sane level for housing prices?
- Alex Scoble
@Kevin: Lowering the interest rate - fine. Extending the time on the loan - fine, but it is really bad for the homeowner. They get to pay more over time. Banks win. Forgiving principal - no. What is the market value? Who's going to set that? Probably the bank. The bank is going to get as much as they can and they have leverage with that homeowner, right? Let's take that leverage away and instead give it back to buyers.
- AJ Kohn
I'm going to bid on a condo in Escondido, today. "Informed sources" have told me $89K will own it. Comparables in the same complex show that the same unit in the next unit over sold for $320K 6 months ago. If I buy it I will rent it out. Who, besides the bank and the foreclosed former owner loses here?
- MVB (Curmudgeon of FF)
I don't think it's really hard to approximate the market value of a home based on sales of comparable properties in the area. Seems like a false obstacle to me.
- Kevin Pedraja
@Kevin: What if we'd done what you say 6 months ago? Home values are X based on comps. Ooops, it went down further. Comps only give a snapshot picture with little context of days on market, inventory etc.
- AJ Kohn
AJ, but by that rationale, banks should stop writing mortgages altogether because they are likely to be writing them for homes that will be underwater in 6 months. It's an endless cycle.
- Kevin Pedraja
@Kevin: Well, actually many banks *are* essentially not writing mortgages ... or only those who can put down 20%+. It's not endless though. If enough properties turn over, inventory goes up and values go down to a point where hard working families can actually buy (with 20% down) without breaking their backs ... they'll start snapping up homes and equilibrium will return. We need the home value to income ratio to return to the near century levels of 3:1 (higher in SF unfortunately - 5:1).
- AJ Kohn
Who loses, Mark? All the property owners in the area as now their properties are devalued significantly. What's funny is that people are all talking about how people could have just rented. Well you know, you have to rent from someone and in this mess people who own properties and are renting are foreclosing too. Which further exacerbates the problem.
- Alex Scoble
@Alex: This effects people who are actually going to move in 3-5 years, right? Or were relying on HELOCs to get by, right? Doesn't this only really effect people who bought in the last 7 years too? If I bought 10 years ago, I'm just seeing my 'paper gains' erode, right? The appreciation wasn't 250% but instead was 4%.
- AJ Kohn
@mark, so let me get this straight: the bank is accepting that the value of the foreclosed property is ~$90K vs the original $360K that the original owner probably paid. But it's somehow wrong to give that owner 1st crack at renegotiating at, say, $100K, so that a real estate speculator, in this case you, can buy it at $90K instead. I fail to understand how this is a better solution for anyone but you.
- Kevin Pedraja
And, BTW, I say that without any malice toward you...
- Kevin Pedraja
@Kevin; My 9 year-old niece made a very, very astute observation during the Christmas holiday break: "Life is fair until you are 12." The previous owner not only is welcome to bid, they were encouraged to bid, but have declined. If I purchase, I can rent the property at a reasonable rental rate, whereas at $360K, even with a huge downstroke, the amount of rental needed to offset expenses would have been almost double market rate for the area.
- MVB (Curmudgeon of FF)
The number of comments to this post must have set some kind of FF record.
- Jimmy Walker
@ Jimmy There are routinely posts with hundreds of comments and a few have crested 500.
- MVB (Curmudgeon of FF)
And one has more than 1200 comments...in one day.
- Alex Scoble
Thank you Alex and MVB for the correction on the comment record. Since my comment I've noticed how naive I was. And the really nice thing about FF is that most of the comments are either insightful or witty. There's very little trash being posted here except for my misguided observation.
- Jimmy Walker
Shared because my wife abhors Zooey. :-)
- Adam Lipkin
Not me. I think Zooey is freakin' hot, and a talented actress and singer to boot. Obviously, your wife's mileage varies. That's okay too.
- Richard S. Crawford
from Friend Deck
but you see how this twitter "extended conversation" works so well..once a few moreply to this too.. it will make it clear why this friendfeed is the "conversation catcher"...on twitter you would have a messy time following the replies to this tweet itself. :o)
- Rob Sellen :o)
Liberal likes, liberal hides, and plenty of just ignoring stuff that doesn't interest me. :-) Also, use the "Best Of..." feature, and don't be afraid to go back and look at your own likes & comments to catch up on conversation.
- Ladybug Heather
I like Twitter, but FF's conversations are so much easier to follow.
- Joey Gibson
twitter really isn't a conversation platform.
- Jason Shultz
from twhirl
I keep up with conversations on ff in the following ways, use likes to bookmark interesting things, comments to track conversations and use friend lists and rooms to filter, you can set up your workflows so that you use comments and filters as a interactive blogging platform ;), since ff is feeds based you can do all sorts of interesting things with your ff feeds or external feeds that you can add to ff..
- Iggy Kin
One thing to bear in mind, Graham, is that items that are liked/commented will float back to the top on FF, so it's somewhat easy to keep up with conversations that way. As for new material: after a certain point it's impossible to keep up with it all. I follow over a thousand people here, I probably see about 20% of what they post.
- FFing Enigma (aka Tina)
Graham, your "comments + likes" tab is your friend. Whenever u comment or like, the convo will be in there
- Zee.
Yeah, im usig Twhirl and Ican see that posts Ihave commented on, or people commenting on my posts, keep floating back up... which is good.Thought you had to go back and keep track.
- ImJustCreative
from twhirl
Just t rying to best set up Ping.fm and FriendFeed to limit various double postings on my FriendFeed stream...
- ImJustCreative
from twhirl
Twitter is for broadcasting; impossible to have a decent conversation there. Since FriendFeed is threaded, it's much easier to keep up. I just have FF forward my posts to Twitter; that way I only have to say things once.
- Glen Mistletoe
Different tool for a different purpose. It's impossible to collaborate (or even converse) in Twitter. Friendfeed gives you more communications density (in many ways)!
- Lorin Olsen
Here are the two most effective methods I use: 1. Create a bookmark on your Firefox Bookmarks toolbar for your Friendfeed discussion (comments+likes) URL. Rename it FFD (for Friendfeed Discussion) to take up less real estate on the toolbar. Click on it regularly to monitor the discussions in which you are participating. 2. Visit FFHolic Most Discussed and FF Best of Day before browsing...
more...
- Sean McBride
So is it possible to reply directly to a particular comment. So for instance, Tine (stupid blogger) has left me some comments. If i wanted to reply direct to her, is that possible? Or do you just have to leave a general comment, like this one?
- ImJustCreative
on twitter you can do @username. on FF, I don't think there is a way to send a reply to just one person. please, someone, correct me if I'm wrong though.
- Jason Shultz
from twhirl
The beautiful thing about the FFD bookmark is that you can easily follow and participate in several discussions on a single scrollable page. It's the coolest discussion interface ever. Once you get the hang of it, you can't go back to older interfaces.
- Sean McBride
Sean> yeah, great advice. Now got my FFD in my toolbar and can see immediately how easy it is to keep tabs of conversations and replies. Love the simple and obvious aspect that the most recent reply comes up at the top. Obvious I know, but not always implemented. So I currently have Twhirl open for Twitter and now FriendFeed, this seems to work and update fine. Do you have any other suggestions for monitoring FF outside of the browser? :)
- ImJustCreative
IJC -- I am pleased to see that the FFD bookmark is working for you. One click will get you into all your discussions from Firefox. I suspect that many Friendfeeders don't know about this technique yet. Now: if you have a Google Reader account, try opening this URL from Firefox:...
more...
- Sean McBride
Sean> Im not a big RSS person generally. I rely on email updates opposed to checking any reader. But... I did what you suggested and can see the results. Also added the GR Feed to the bookmark bar, so now its instantly viewable at a click. How cool. Really appreciate your advice, has made a huge difference to how I now view FF. Still loads to explore, but feel a lot more at ease now with it. G.
- ImJustCreative
IJC -- I used to receive thousands of news alerts via email. What a relief it was to switch to news feeds (including news search alert feeds) in Google Reader. Feed readers get rid of most of the muck of managing all these items in your email reader. Much trimmer, fleeter and less labor-intensive. And the GR search engine performs significantly better than any email search engine I've used.
- Sean McBride
I have exactly the same question. I'm using Friendeck now, so we'll see how it works out.
- Richard S. Crawford
from Friend Deck
IJC (update) -- 15 functions you can perform on Friendfeed items with Google Reader: 1. browse in list view 2. custom sorts (prioritization) of feeds under folders 3. custom sorts (prioritization) of folders 4. email 5. file in folders 6. mark all as read 7. search all items 8. search in folders 9. search read items 10. search shared items 11. search starred items 12. share 13. share...
more...
- Sean McBride
And the other point is that all these functions can also be applied to Twitter feeds and tweets under GR.
- Sean McBride
Hide violates my personal user interface rules -- it requires too much work . I am very lazy and stingy with my clicks. And I want to manage all my feeds under a single powerful interface. I increasingly see the world of information as just a collection of feeds.
- Sean McBride
Try putting the FF users you always want to keep up with in your Favorites section so you can view them separately. Scroll though new entires looking for items of interest. Use http://ffholic.com to find the most active discussions.
- Internet Strategist
IJC: Honestly, and with no snark, I often wonder the same about people who use Twitter. FF just flows better for my crazed cerebellum.
- Steven Perez
Its the same ol same ol. When you have used something as much as I have, ie Twitter, to the degree I have, using something else can take a while and some outside influence being offered to help make that transistion. But Im quickly seeing the utter power, flexibility and ease of use of FriendFeed.
- ImJustCreative
from twhirl
The book, "World War Z", was frakkin' brilliant, in my opinion. But I'm really worried about a film adaptation. Still, though, this concept art looks cool, if somewhat disturbing. Not Safe for the Squeamish.
- Richard S. Crawford