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US Politics

US Politics

Discussion covering all angles of American politics.
Eric Logan
Academics "Prove" It's Okay To Lie About Climate Change - Kevin Glass (via
Academics "Prove" It's Okay To Lie About Climate Change - Kevin Glass (via
It appears that news media and some pro-environmental organizations have the tendency to accentuate or even exaggerate the damage caused by climate change. This article provides a rationale for this tendency by using a modified International Environmental Agreement (IEA) model with asymmetric information. We find that the information manipulation has an instrumental value, as it ex post induces more countries to participate in an IEA, which will eventually enhance global welfare. - Eric Logan
It's even peer reviewed. LOL - Eric Logan
Do you think all the leading science publications in the world have been lying about global warming for past decade and continue to lie about it? What do you think is motivating this grand global conspiracy to deceive humanity? - Sean McBride
I think you have a hard time with comprehension. It's a peer reviewed paper very Nietzschean in flavor where alarmists think the end justifies the means. Lie if you must it works. Of course not everyone will believe it and those who actually comprehend may become more skeptical, but at least you have your consensus to rely on. - Eric Logan
You are still not addressing the key question: you are unable to name a single reputable scientific publication in the world that doesn't support the basics of AGW theory. How do you explain that? One can find a minuscule minority of dissenters for every accepted scientific belief in the world -- so what? They have failed to make their case among their peers. - Sean McBride
I pay more attention to Scientific American, Science, Nature, New Scientist, National Geographic, etc. on climate change science than or But that's just me, I suppose. - Sean McBride
What has most discredited global warming deniers is that far too many of them are infantile ranters -- incredibly stupid, in fact. And most of the very few reputable scientists among the deniers are being funded by carbon billionaires -- just like the scientists who worked for the tobacco industry to obfuscate and deny the hard evidence that smoking is the source of serious health problems. We've seen this script before. - Sean McBride
At the moment, this is one of my favorite articles regarding this entire controversy: [object=article; title=The many lines of evidence for global warming in a single graphic; author=John Cook; publication=Skeptical Science; date=December 30, 2010; url=]. - Sean McBride
I don't dispute many of the basics. I do think we are focused on the wrong GHG. The beauty of this debate is that the truth is going to become self evident one way or the other. We are not there yet. When Judith Curry and Nir Shaviv start sounding the alarm I will start start worrying. I already do as much as I can do to live sustainably. I plan to install a key card like they have in... more... - Eric Logan
“The great tragedy of Science-the slaying of a beautiful hypothesis by an ugly fact.” Thomas Huxley - Eric Logan
Eric -- by all means, keep being contrarian on this issue and digging hard for the best counter-arguments and counter-evidence -- that is necessary to keep the debate honest. (I welcome contrarianism in all things -- but eventually I go where the best info leads.) - Sean McBride
One of the first books I personally read on AGW after An inconvenient truth was Tim Flannery's The Weather Makers. This is one of the final quotes in that book. This is what Lovelock says today. - Eric Logan
Sean McBride
Fwd: Why the elites are so ruthless that they destroy themselves - (via
Fwd: Why the elites are so ruthless that they destroy themselves - (via
Fwd: Why the elites are so ruthless that they destroy themselves - (via
"As you see, here society literally commits suicide by having the elites draw so much wealth from the accumulated resources that nothing is left to commoners - who die out. But, as the elites don't produce anything, the wealth stock disappears and the final result is that they also disappear. The elites are so ruthless that they destroy themselves." - Sean McBride
Sean McBride
Human extinction: is it possible? -
Human extinction: is it possible?
"To view the absolute downside, you only have to go outside on a clear evening and look west. That bright star is Venus, where it is 465 degrees in the shade; the Venusian atmosphere is mostly CO₂ and 90 times heavier than ours. Being similar in mineral composition to Earth, Venus probably once had water and maybe oceans; faint traces remain in its atmosphere, the last vestiges of a catastrophic planetary warming episode. The message to Earthlings from the Evening Star is plain: this is what can happen to a planet if you release all your carbon and boil off your oceans." - Sean McBride from Bookmarklet
"The Age of Consequences study by the US Centre for Strategic and International Studies says that under a 2.6 degree rise “nations around the world will be overwhelmed by the scale of change and pernicious challenges, such as pandemic disease. The internal cohesion of nations will be under great stress…as a result of a dramatic rise in migration and changes in agricultural patterns and... more... - Sean McBride
"Eighteen nations currently have nuclear weapons technology or access to it, raising the stakes on nuclear conflict to the highest level since the end of the Cold War. At the same time, with more than 4 billion people living in the world’s most vulnerable regions, scope for refugee tsunamis and pandemic disease is also large. It is on the basis of scenarios such as these that scientists... more... - Sean McBride
"However in a classic case of improvident human behaviour, a global energy stampede is taking place as oil, gas, coal, tar sands and other miners (who, being technical folk, understand quite clearly what they are doing to the planet) rush to release as much carbon as possible as profitably as possible before society takes the inevitable decision to ban it altogether. Thanks to them,... more... - Sean McBride
Sean McBride
GOP Wants to Stop Study of Climate Change - Ring Of Fire Radio: Robert Kennedy Jr, Mike Papantonio and Sam Seder -
GOP Wants to Stop Study of Climate Change - Ring Of Fire Radio: Robert Kennedy Jr, Mike Papantonio and Sam Seder
"In classic Republican form, Bridenstine’s position on climate change isn’t based on science or empirical study, but rather political ideology. While 97 percent of the scientific community has agreed that climate change exists, Bridenstine and others like him still refuse to accept the science. Bridenstine, who is clearly no scientific expert, insists that “solar activity” is responsible for the world’s increased temperature instead of greenhouse gas emissions." - Sean McBride from Bookmarklet
Sean McBride
Senator Elizabeth Warren tops ‘National Thermometer’ poll — above Hillary Clinton | The Raw Story -
Senator Elizabeth Warren tops ‘National Thermometer’ poll — above Hillary Clinton | The Raw Story
"New Jersey Governor Chris Christie fell to ninth place from his top spot among favored U.S. politicians after a scandal over traffic lane closures on the George Washington Bridge, according to a Quinnipiac University ranking released on Thursday. The poll measuring Americans’ sentiment toward political leaders was taken last week as the well-known Republican, who is often mentioned as a possible 2016 U.S. presidential contender, released an internal investigation two months after the lane shutdown popularly referred to as “Bridgegate” came to light. Christie lost the No. 1 spot to populist Senator Elizabeth Warren, a Democrat from Massachusetts, in Quinnipiac’s “National Thermometer” poll. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, also a Democrat, came in second." - Sean McBride
What does she want? I don't get her. She really does sound like a class warfare political act. As usual, makes it very imprecise who the enemy is, who is going to have to sacrifice for all this goodie-goodieness. - Berthe
If the Republican Party continues to present itself as the agent of a small group of billionaires (many of them Wall Street financial manipulators or crony capitalists, not creative capitalists), in an era in which the broad middle class has been suffering a further decline, it will not have much of a political future. The GOP needs to rediscover and reanimate its progressive traditions. (Warren is making her pitch to the middle class.) - Sean McBride
The Republicans are terrified of the media, IMO. Did you read the commentary about this recent Paul Ryan-poverty-inner city men business? No one is allowed to talk common sense in this country, it seems, except Judge Judy: Don't have children if you can't afford to support them. That's the basic fact about poverty in the USA, having children with no plan or intention to WORK to provide... more... - Berthe
Barry Paul
Sean McBride
Irrefutable evidence supporting the increase in global warming over the years.
global warming.jpg
That settles it. - Sean McBride
Eric Logan
IPCC Insider Rejects Global-Warming Report | National Review Online -
IPCC Insider Rejects Global-Warming Report | National Review Online
Tol, who has been working with the IPCC since 1994, was the lead author of Chapter 10 of the report, on key economic sectors and services. He was also a contributor to Chapters 17 and 19, on the economics of adaptation to climate change and emergent risks, respectively. He took his name off of the final summary because he felt the IPCC did not properly account for human technological ingenuity and downplayed the potential benefits of global warming. “In the current SPM there are a number of statements in there that are widely cited that are just not correct,” Tol says. One prediction has it that crop yields will begin to fall dramatically, a statement “that is particularly not supported by the chapter itself,” Tol says. “What it completely forgets is technological progress and that crop yields have been going up for as long as we’ve looked at crop yields.” Beyond misleading statements on agriculture, Tol says the IPCC report cites only the maximum estimate for how much it will cost to... more... - Eric Logan from Bookmarklet
We could protect the coasts if people believed that sea levels were going to rise, but it doesn't seem like that's going to happen the way things are going. - Victor Ganata
Yep, there are so many reasons to change how we do things to fight climate change and so few reasons not to. - Scoble, Alex Scoble
I was impressed with many of the energy saving technologies that are implemented in Italy. When I asked why they where implemented the answer invariably involved energy cost factors. It's a shame that alarmism and intentional cost increases are the prods that seem to be the primary plan to force change in our country that has prospered so much partially as a result of comparatively cheap energy and resources. - Eric Logan
To be honest, I think we're well past the point where curbing emissions will significantly change the trajectory of the global temperature rise. I think we're at the point where we either build preventive measures now, or we cut our losses in the near future and abandon entire cities. Either way it's gonna cost us. - Victor Ganata
Eric Logan
People must hear both sides of the climate story | Herald Sun -
THE media’s response to the latest instalment of the UN Climate Panel report will inevitably dwell on the negative effects of global warming — how it will reduce agricultural yields, increase heatwaves and drown communities. Those stories will be correct, if only in a limited sense of that word. So while reading them, it is worth stepping back and realising that they provide just a partial version of the global warming story. Yes, global warming is real, it is partly man-made and it’s a long-term problem we must address. But describing it in one-sided, vaguely apocalyptic terms won’t help us find solutions. For example, a previous edition of the UN Climate Panel summary told us rising sea levels, which are indeed happening, would deliver “potential damages to infrastructure in coastal areas …” projected to cost “tens of billions of dollars for individual countries, for example Egypt, Poland, and Vietnam”. Yet while laying out the possibility, they neglect to tell us that these losses... more... - Eric Logan from Bookmarklet
From the author: "But eventually global warming will turn negative and that is why we still must act to fix it. The best solution is to ramp up funding for research and development of effective green technology." - Sean McBride
I hope to actually download and browse a copy of this report. - Brian Johns
Hardly anyone debates that Sean the shrillness of the warnings and the proposed solutions are the crux of the problem. I also intend to read it. Lomborg has been skewered for being sane. - Eric Logan from FFHound!
I'm not convinced that we aren't facing an apocalyptic situation with regard to global warming and climate change. Better safe than sorry on issues of this strategic magnitude, in my opinion. Be aggressive about addressing the problem, while continuing to evaluate all new relevant data as it comes in. No one can predict climate change with absolute certainty -- just best guesses. - Sean McBride
That's called The Precautionary Principle, which Adam Curtis took on hilariously in Pt 3 of The Power of Nightmares. Science be damned, since the problem is defined before the definition of the full dataset is available for experiment. Which, of course, is why people are willing to alter their future based on models when the observed data shows the models are missing something, like how the oceans work, radiation physics, cloud formation, and the effect of aerosols...for starters. - MRW_8
It must be difficult to hold views on global warming and climate change that are at variance with those of the overwhelming majority of legitimate scientists in the field. - Sean McBride
There aren't two sides any more, climate change has 2 sides in the same way evolution and creation have two sides. Only one of course is credible - WarLord
"t must be difficult to hold views on global warming and climate change that are at variance with those of the overwhelming majority of legitimate scientists in the field." You haven't read the "legitimate scientists in the field." I have, until my eyeballs fell out. See my reference to the revolution about to happen in the American Physical Society (APS) in the "Debunking every IPCC... more... - MRW_8
As I pointed out to Eric recently, I get my climate science from the following publications: 1. American Scientist 2. Discover 3. National Geographic 4. Nature 5. New Scientist 6. Science 7. Science Daily 8. Scientific American 9. Technology Review 10. Wired - Sean McBride
Those publications are compromised. You have to read the actual papers. A tedious, dreary activity. - MRW_8
I track trends on this topic with: [Prismatic; Global Warming]. - Sean McBride
So what? Read the papers. Problem is most of them re paywalled. But I buy them, like an asshole. :-( - MRW_8
I don't buy the claim that all those publications are "compromised" and are telling deliberate lies about global warming and climate science. That takes one deep into the realm of crackpot conspiracy theorizing. - Sean McBride
Of course you don't because you have nothing to compare it to. You don't read the source. - MRW_8
Then read this: It will take you 90-120 minutes. - MRW_8
Why would the editors of and authors at Nature, Science, National Geographic, etc. spin fairy tales about this subject? That doesn't pass a basic reality check. - Sean McBride
When I see 25% of the climate science community reverse its former views on global warming, I will start to pay attention -- but not until then. That's my threshold. - Sean McBride
Then you don't know what's been happening lately. The papers that have been presented for publication have been so fully compromised that Nature, and I believe, Science, now requiree the papers pass a statistics test by real statisticians before publication because the models/experiments have been so badly compromised that they cannot stand up to scrutiny. - MRW_8
Believe me, I have no problem questioning official stories -- I have never believed the official story on 9/11. - Sean McBride
I check out global warming news on Prismatic once a day -- so far I have noticed no major trend among most climate change scientists to reverse their views on the issue. - Sean McBride
Over 100 papers CLAIMED TO BE PEER-REVIEWED were retracted from those publications over the last three months because they were created by a computer program. Don't tell me you haven't heard about this. You probably haven't. This is what happens when our news is compromised as well. - MRW_8
Give me a link for your last comment and I will check it out. - Sean McBride
I am late to get out the door right now otherwise I would inundate you with the links to this scandal. I will do it later. - MRW_8
Ok -- whenever you have time. Give me your best link I will look at it carefully. - Sean McBride
I will definitely give you those links later. Read the APS transcript. Yeah, it's 593 pages but its a fucking court transcript. It has 2 inch borders and it's triple spaced. You can do one page per second. So in 593 seconds, you can get through it. For the APS to want to review their 2007 Climate Change statement is huge. AND. They are doing it with court transcribers and a completely 100% open, transparent process. - MRW_8
I'll skim the APS transcript. I am not locked into a position on this or any other issue -- I am always willing to change my mind -- but I require solid information. - Sean McBride
It's actually really interesting because these guys aren't being nice to each other. And, jeezuss, look at their credentials. These aren't bloggers with an "interest in climate change." These are serious scientists with credentials up the ying-yang who understand radiative physics and math and atmospheric physics and geological time saying to each other 'what the hell is going on'. - MRW_8
Skim is good. - MRW_8
getting the evil eye here, Sean. gotta run - MRW_8
Later. This is just a friendly debate between us, by the way -- we agree on many other issues -- and I take your opinions seriously on this issue -- I know you do your homework. - Sean McBride
What the global warming topic looks like on Google News right now: [Google News; global warming] - Sean McBride
And on Twitter: [Twitter; global warming] - Sean McBride
So what. Remember Giordano Bruno. Murdered. Slaughtered in Feb 1600 AD because he said the earth revolved around the run. Galileo THEN said, OK, I'll take house arrest and keep my mouth shut. Whoops. I'm about to get slaughtered here if I don't leave. Yikes. - MRW_8
You better get a move on. :) I respect the contrarian spirit and contrarian opinions -- I have been a Bruno fan since my teens -- but contrarian views have to accord with reality. Not all contrarian views are true simply because they are contrarian. - Sean McBride
OK Sean. This guy after refusing to sign the document==> Prof Tol, the lead co-ordinating author of the report’s chapter on economics, was involved in drafting the summary for policymakers. From the current SPM wrote this today. - Eric Logan
They probably haven't had time to label him a climate mis-informer yet. Give it a few days. - Eric Logan
Eric -- how soon do you think Tol will move Scientific American, National Geographic and other leading scientific publications to his point of view? That is the datapoint I am looking for -- a shift in consensus among the world's leading scientific authorities. If that happens, it will register instantly on Prismatic, Google News, Twitter, etc. and I will see it. - Sean McBride
It's not a relevant question. All of the leading publications thought Bruno was a heretic too. Who is right is the pertinent question. You don't even have consensus among the editors and lead authors and that's all I hear anymore. - Eric Logan
Eric -- do you understand the syntax of these four Google searches and how to interpret the search results? 1. 2. 3. 4. - Sean McBride
Sean I am not going to keep rehashing the same argument. The scientists are in vehement disagreement on many of these issues. I am completely aware that that fact is being green washed and how.. - Eric Logan
To dig into the syntax see: [Unofficial Google Advanced Search] Google is a powerful data mining (and knowledge) tool. - Sean McBride
From Scientific American (January 14, 2014): [About that consensus on global warming: 9136 agree, 1 disagrees.] - Sean McBride
"I just want to highlight this illuminating infographic by James Powell in which, based on more than 2000 peer-reviewed publications, he counts the number of authors from November, 2012 to December, 2013 who explicitly deny global warming (that is, who propose a fundamentally different reason for temperature rise than anthropogenic CO2). The number is exactly one. In addition Powell also has helpful links to the abstracts and main text bodies of the relevant papers." - Sean McBride
[Voodoo Economists, Part 3.5: Richard Tol says wildly optimistic MIT/NBER study, beloved of deniers, is “way too pessimistic”] See the bullet points which take apart Toll. - Sean McBride
Just one LOL ? Celestial driver of Phanerozoic climate. Cosmoclimatology: a new theory emerges. Implications of the Secondary Role of Carbon Dioxide and Methane Forcing in Climate Change: Past, Present, and Future - Eric Logan
How have those papers affected the overwhelming consensus view at leading scientific publications? - Sean McBride
Are those Google searches a mystery to you? :) Google is an amazing surgical tool if you know how to use it. - Sean McBride
Show me the search that explains the real mystery. - Eric Logan
Where is the link for the source of this graphic? - Sean McBride
If you don't know what that graph is then you need to start reading a lot more than just your Google search's. The graph was produced by John Christy and it shows the missing tropical hot spot. This is a discussion of the graph in question. - Eric Logan
I asked to see the link for the graphic to evaluate the credibility of the source and to peruse any discussion the post may have generated. - Sean McBride
The link I just gave you is a discussion of that graphic specifically. - Eric Logan from FFHound!
Same old shtuff from the Heartland Institute network: 1. [Examining Dr. John Christy's Global Warming Skepticism] 2. [Climate Misinformer: John Christy] 3. [John Christy, Richard McNider and Roy Spencer trying to overturn mainstream science by rewriting history and... more... - Sean McBride
Christy's views have gained no traction among leading scientific publications. Let me know if they ever do and I will start to pay attention to him. - Sean McBride
[Global Warming Deniers and Legitimate Skeptical Scientists] - Sean McBride
You get funnier and less informed on this topic progressively, Sean. Christy was a member of the IPCC in 2007 which makes him a Nobel prize winner. How many illegitimate scientists used to be part of the IPCC ? - Eric Logan
McNider and Christy: Why Kerry Is Flat Wrong on Climate Change It was the scientific skeptics who bucked the 'consensus' and said the Earth was round. - Eric Logan
Eric -- Christy and his fellow deniers constitute a minuscule minority within the climate science community -- deal with it. - Sean McBride
[Sourcewatch: John R. Christy] - Sean McBride
Sourcewatch: "Spencer and Christy sat by for most of a decade allowing — indeed encouraging — the use of their data set as an icon for global warming skeptics. They committed serial errors in the data analysis, but insisted they were right and models and thermometers were wrong. They did little or nothing to root out possible sources of errors, and left it to others to clean up the mess, as has now been done." - Sean McBride
I am dealing with it. Free entertainment. I have been watching false crises for years now. I try to find ways to profit. Remember this one? - Eric Logan
[Should you believe anything John Christy says?] Devastating rebuttal to Christy -- I hope you are entertained by it. Also, I have picked up hints that both Spencer and Christy are Christian fundamentalists. We know that drill. - Sean McBride
Eric: how I am using Google search: I look for all the items posted at specific and reputable publications (like Scientific American) on global warming, limit the results for the past year or past month, sort them by relevance (importance), and tally up the number of pro and con articles regarding AGW. Quick and dirty data mining. Denialists like Spencer and Christy haven't moved the... more... - Sean McBride
The only venue that counts are the actual observations. If we where actually listening to the warmists we would have a carbon trading board in Chicago already. - Eric Logan from FFHound!
The venues that count are the publications in which the world's best scientific minds interpret the data from real-world observations -- and they are easy to track. - Sean McBride
Global Warming is Destroying April Fools Day. - Eric Logan
"Ten years ago I simply parroted what the IPCC told us. One day I started checking the facts and data – first I started with a sense of doubt, but then I became outraged when I discovered that much of what the IPCC and the media were telling us was sheer nonsense and was not even supported by any scientific facts and measurements. To this day I still feel shame that as a scientist I made presentations of their science without first checking it." - Klaus-Eckart Puls - Eric Logan
Eric -- whenever I check out your scientific sources, I find that they have been debunked by the overwhelming majority of scientific authorities on climate science. Not a single leading scientific publication on the planet gives them any credence. Many of these sources are religious fundamentalist cranks or they are being funded by carbon billionaires with short-term profit motives. Most of the promoters and defenders of these sources on the Internet are barely literate. - Sean McBride
Your continued appeal to authority/ consensus just makes you more laughable and it's one of the oldest canards in science. The old adage “there is strength in numbers” is not always true, especially when it comes to science. Science is not advanced through polls or consensus. Observation and experimental evidence is what matters. Thankfully, being in the minority does not necessarily... more... - Eric Logan
What exactly does ones religion have to do with this debate? Most scientists are atheists. Nir Shaviv is Jewish. I have no idea what religion the scientists are nor do I care. That's just another one of your personal biases. I doubt it's a valid observation, but I haven't researched it. The natural inclination of religion would seem to support man made climate catastrophe. There is that whole destroy those who are destroying the earth thing. - Eric Logan from FFHound!
Eric: "Your continued appeal to authority/ consensus just makes you more laughable and it's one of the oldest canards in science." Actually, you are laughable. A tiny minority of scientists, many of them with questionable motives and agendas, have been unable to make any headway in persuading an overwhelming majority of reputable climate scientists to their denialist point of view. They are regularly trounced in scientific debates on global warming issues. So who is laughing? - Sean McBride
Do you appeal to scientific authority in rebutting the claims of creationists who believe that the universe is a few thousand years old or the claims of those who insist that smoking tobacco is not a cause of serious health problems? Global warming denialists, for the most part, occupy the same part of the ideological spectrum as creationists and apologists for the tobacco industry. - Sean McBride
I am laughing at you on a fairly regular basis. I don't have to appeal to authority or consensus some of things creationists believe are ludicrous yet I would hazard a guess most humans believe in some form of a diety and I don't feel a need to silence them either. - Eric Logan
I don't know what you find funny about having your views crushingly rejected by all the leading science publications in the world, without exception -- but to each his own. I think you've got your ego invested in global warming denialism and are unable to find a way to disinvest. This isn't a rational topic for you. - Sean McBride
Let me know when the actual global temperature observations are within the statistical error bars of IPCC projections. Call and ask for blue boy. I will be holding my breath. - Eric Logan ? "Since 1990, global surface temperatures have warmed at a rate of about 0.15°C per decade, within the range of model projections of about 0.10 to 0.35°C per decade." - Andrew C (✔)
(same link) "All in all, the IPCC models do an impressive job accurately representing and projecting changes in the global climate, contrary to contrarian claims. In fact, the IPCC global surface warming projections have performed much better than predictions made by climate contrarians." - Andrew C (✔)
What that link glosses over Andrew while mentioning this. ==> "IPCC models have been accurate For 1992–2006, the natural variability of the climate amplified human-caused global surface warming, while it dampened the surface warming for 1997–2012. Over the full period, the overall warming rate has remained within the range of IPCC model projections, as the 2013 IPCC report notes." - Eric Logan from FFHound!
It fails to mention this ==> "The 1990 prediction did require an adjustment, since it did not take into account natural variability — which includes the chaotic nature of weather as well as longer-term natural patterns, such as the El Niño/La Niña cycle." They expect us to take their word for it and you apparently do that they know what contribution natural variability makes. Even though it was not accounted for in the original projection. - Eric Logan from FFHound!
The same adjustments can be applied to the AGW deniers; wouldn't have helped them. - Andrew C (✔)
Meanwhile, you seem to take the projected _positive_ effects of increasing CO2 as settled facts... Your so-called skepticism seems to always and only go in one direction. - Andrew C (✔)
Increased CO2 has a logarithmic effect. That's not in dispute. It's a radiative physics fact: - MRW_8
This is from Thermal Physics by Stephen and Katherine Blundell, 2010, Oxford University Press, p. 454. it shows the radiative effect of doubling CO2 in the atmosphere: As noted, CO2 absorbs in the 15 micron band--and loosely from 13-18 microns--which is around 193 K or -112 F. As shown, CO2 doesn't absorb from 220 K to 320 K, which is... more... - MRW_8
With all due respect, Andrew C, you don't understand the Greenhouse Effect. Neither did I for years until I had a radiative physicist and infrared astronomist sneer at my basic science ignorance, and slowly and painfully explain how it works. If you will look at any IPCC report that reports on AGW, H20 as water vapor is not in the listing of greenhouse gases. That's why CO2 was... more... - MRW_8
Robert Rosner: "I believe climate change is very real and that it’s anthropogenic. And it means that we have a big problem." - Sean McBride
“The term ‘climate change’ is meaningless. The Earth’s climate has been changing since time immemorial, that is since the Earth was formed 1,000 million years ago. The theory of ‘man-made climate change’ is an unsubstantiated hypothesis [about] our climate [which says it] has been adversely affected by the burning of fossil fuels in the last 100 years, causing the average temperature on... more... - Eric Logan
FACTFILE Carbon dioxide (CO2) was discovered around 1770 by Joseph Priestley, who also discovered oxygen (O2) in 1774, for which he is better known. A scientist called Le Chatelier proposed the so-called ‘equilibrium law’, which has been used to argue if CO2 increases in the atmosphere, plants will metabolise it faster. Before the Industrial Revolution there used to be about 27 molecules of CO2 for every 100,000 molecules of air - now there are roughly 39 molecules per 100,000. - Eric Logan
Eric: shouldn't you post the links and sources for your comments? [‘Global warming’ is rubbish says top professor] - Sean McBride
Sheesh. That's a gross abuse of Le Chatelier's principle. All that means is that given any reversible reaction, the forward reaction and the backward reaction will eventually occur at rates such that the reactants and the products will reach equilibrium concentrations. So all the natural processes involving CO2 have forward and reverse reactions: atmospheric CO2 dissolves into carbonic... more... - Victor Ganata
"The models don't know how to model the H2O part yet. " - cite, please? - Andrew C (✔)
Water is most definitely the most abundant greenhouse gas, but its concentration varies so much that,it can't be what's driving the temperature rise. It's the other gases (carbon dioxide, methane, etc.) that have unilateral effects. If water were the sole greenhouse gas, temperatures would fluctuate depending on humidity and therefore over time, it would average out of to a delta of zero, and you wouldn't see a positive signal. - Victor Ganata
Comment on Les Woodcock: "Am I reading a newspaper or Viz comic? Can't believe this issue has become polarized along political lines. Does cancer have a left and right perspective for example? Maybe we are a way off knowing if increased planetary warming is natural or man made definitively. However 97% of scientists now believe the probability is that the changes we are seeing have no... more... - Sean McBride
The physics of the greenhouse effect and the chemistry and biology of the carbon cycle isn't super complex. This is all lower division undergrad kind of stuff. Don't try to obfuscate and paint it as accessible only to experienced climate scientists. - Victor Ganata
If it's so simple Victor why can't they model it ? CO2 doesn't work like a thermostat. Does the increased presence of CO2 increase temperature alone ? - Eric Logan
They make adjustments to the data ex post facto. Over and over again. - Eric Logan
Yes, the model is that not that much more complicated than delta [CO2] = delta T * some constant. Because of Le Chatelier's principle, you can generally ignore the contributions of cyclic processes, because you know the reaction rates will cancel out. The only thing that drives concentration changes in one direction is burning up fossil fuels. - Victor Ganata
The difficulty is more that local T, which is the only thing you can really measure, fluctuates for a lot of different reasons besides [CO2] and statistical analysis of local Ts is the only way to derive a global T. The interpretation of the data involves separating out all the other processes, which is what requires experience in climate science. But there's no significant question about the greenhouse effect or the carbon cycle. That's a lot more understood than global T. - Victor Ganata
I also honestly have learned more about this topic as a result of information that you have brought to this debate in this forum then any other contributor. I have been reading extensively about it. Like MRW I actually pay to read reports behind paywall's that are complex and tedious. I asked a polymath friend who is a skeptic for the most part about optimal levels of CO2 a few weeks... more... - Eric Logan
Climate science isn't a monolithic discipline, it's really interdisciplinary, and a lot of parts are actually quite settled (like the infrared absorption wavelengths of CO2, the dissolution and effervescence of CO2 in the ocean, and carbon fixation with RuBisCO vs transpiration). Arguing against these things without convincing models and supporting data (which, if they existed, would... more... - Victor Ganata
I agree that the media has been damaging to the discussion by sensationalizing anecdotes and making correlations where none exist, but this doesn't really have much to do with the science. - Victor Ganata
So, yeah, I'd say the parts that aren't completely settled are how to get the global temperature signal from statistical analysis of local temperature observations and what exactly the constant relating CO2 concentration to global temperature is. But the existence of uncertainty doesn't mean we know nothing. I don't see anyone credible arguing that there isn't a positive delta in T,... more... - Victor Ganata
That's the definition of complexity trying to extrapolate formulas that are well understood into a chaotic system. Instead of actually trying to elucidate uncertainty we get worse case scenarios designed to pass policy that will enrich some and impoverish others. If things had gone according to plan we would have a CCX right now in Chicago near where you need a three foot auger to go ice fishing on Lake Michigan in April presently. - Eric Logan
Policy is whole other level of complexity and, yeah, some of them are probably not going to be effective or helpful (I don't think carbon credits will do anything to affect emissions, for example.) But that still doesn't invalidate what we do know. Some parts of this country may have had a long winter, but if you look at the statistical analysis of local temperatures, it still shows a rise in global temperature. Maybe not as high as some of the models predict, but still within confidence intervals. - Victor Ganata
I know it doesn't seem that I am open minded about this especially here which is kind of sounding board for me on this topic. I often play devils advocate for lack of a better term, but I am and I am paying attention. Where friends on FB I rarely if ever broach these topics there. - Eric Logan
"Can climate models explain the recent stagnation in global warming?” Hans von Storch(1), Armineh Barkhordarian(1), Klaus Hasselmann(2) and Eduardo Zorita(1) (1) Institute for Coastal Research, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Geesthacht, Germany (2) Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany - MRW_8
"Stochastic modeling of water vapor in the climate system” - MRW_8
"WATER VAPOR in the CLIMATE SYSTEM, Special Report. December 1995.” American Geophysical Union. Reprinted here: - MRW_8
"Observations of Stratocumulus Clouds and Their Effect on the Eastern Pacific Surface Heat Budget along 20°S” Simon P. de Szoeke,* Sandra Yuter,+ David Mechem,# Chris W. Fairall,@ Casey D. Burleyson,+ and Paquita Zuidema& doi: QUOTE. Coupled model intercomparison project... more... - MRW_8
The National Science Foundation: ""Clouds: The Wild Card of Climate Change.” See specifically, "Computing Clouds--Predicting cloud power with computer models.” - MRW_8
"An Evaluation of Decadal Probability Forecasts from State-of-the-Art Climate Models” Suckling, Emma B., Leonard A. Smith, 2013: An Evaluation of Decadal Probability Forecasts from State-of-the-Art Climate Models*. J. Climate, 26, 9334–9347. doi: - MRW_8
Austria’s national weather service, the Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG) press release November 11, 2013, "Slower temperature increase: climate models under scrutiny” Use Google translate. "“In the last 15 years there has been a clear weakening in the global... more... - MRW_8
Just for starters. - MRW_8
Don't ask me to do your Google cite homework again. My time is valuable. If you were really interested, you'd be doing this yourself. I study this for my own edification to understand the parameters of what I'm being told are the limits of my own survival. I don't enjoying bullshitting myself, and I won't let others do it to me; I have enough scientific formal training to muddle through... more... - MRW_8
MRW -- no one is obligated to research your minority claims on global warming -- that's your responsibility, if you are interested in persuading others to your point of view. I did my usual scan of the latest global warming/climate change news this morning using Prismatic, Twitter and Google News (it takes just a few minutes) -- the authoritative scientific consensus hasn't changed from... more... - Sean McBride
Barry Paul
Sean McBride
Sen. Elizabeth Warren is 'hottest' U.S. politician: poll - NY Daily News -
Sen. Elizabeth Warren is 'hottest' U.S. politician: poll - NY Daily News
"The Massachusetts Democrat netted the highest rating in a Quinnipiac poll that asked respondents to rate how much they liked possible 2016 contenders on a theoretical temperature scale of 0 to 100." - Sean McBride from Bookmarklet
Best matchup for 2016: Rand Paul vs. Elizabeth Warren. - Sean McBride
Sean McBride
Of 10,885 Peer-Reviewed Articles on Climate Change in 2013, Only 2 Question Human Involvement - AllGov - News -
Of 10,885 Peer-Reviewed Articles on Climate Change in 2013, Only 2 Question Human Involvement - AllGov - News
"James L. Powell is an MIT-educated geologist who taught students about the earth for 20 years at Oberlin College and served on the prestigious National Science Board at the request of two Republican presidents (Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush). He’s also a believer in human-made global warming, and has spent considerable time reviewing scientific and academic papers on the subject. In 2013 alone, Powell found 10,885 peer-reviewed articles that discussed global warming or climate change. But only two described as peer-reviewed denied the widely-held belief that the planet is warming up because of humans, he says, and one of the two turned out not to be peer-reviewed." - Sean McBride from Bookmarklet
"In addition to the more than 10,000 articles he found for last year, Powell says he’s reviewed more than another 15,000 papers on climate change. Of the grand total of 25,182 scientific articles he’s read, only 26 rejected the idea that humans are causing global warming. These 26 papers do not offer a common, rival theory to man-made global warming, he says. Instead, they amount to “a... more... - Sean McBride
"He further states that “the so-called debate over global warming is an illusion, a hoax conjured up by a handful of apostate scientists and a misguided and sometimes colluding media, aided and abetted by funding from fossil fuel companies and right wing foundations.”" - Sean McBride
Sean McBride
This Is What the GOP's War On Science Looks Like -
This Is What the GOP's War On Science Looks Like
"I've seen some surreal moments in our nation's capitol, but few can compare to watching Republican members of Congress lecture John Holdren last week on the meaning of "science." Here are some highlights. Holdren, the president's science advisor, was the lone witness at a hearing held by the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology to review the White House's fiscal year 2015 budget request for science agencies." - Sean McBride from Bookmarklet
"You can watch the two-hour video here—or better yet, don't. We've watched it for you. Plus, you don't want to be more embarrassed than you already are about a science committee that includes a congressman who describes evolution as a "lie from the pit of Hell" and another who claims that climate change is a liberal plot to "create global government to control our lives."" - Sean McBride
A confederacy of dunces. - Sean McBride
Eric Logan
The UN's New Focus: Surviving, Not Stopping, Climate Change - Uri Friedman and Svati Kirsten Narula - The Atlantic -
The UN's New Focus: Surviving, Not Stopping, Climate Change - Uri Friedman and Svati Kirsten Narula - The Atlantic
“The really big breakthrough in this report is the new idea of thinking about managing climate change,” Chris Field, the co-chair of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) study, said this week, adding that governments, companies, and communities are already experimenting with “climate-change adaptation.” First, a definition of terms is in order. Since the 1990s, the climate-policy community has been engaged in a debate about whether to focus on reducing emissions ("mitigation"), managing climate change ("adaptation"), or both. But in a 2007 article for Nature, a team of academics gave three reasons for why the "taboo on adaptation" was gradually disappearing: - Eric Logan from Bookmarklet
Eric Logan
Charles Koch: I'm Fighting to Restore a Free Society - -
Charles Koch: I'm Fighting to Restore a Free Society -
More than 200 years ago, Thomas Jefferson warned that this could happen. "The natural progress of things," Jefferson wrote, "is for liberty to yield and government to gain ground." He knew that no government could possibly run citizens' lives for the better. The more government tries to control, the greater the disaster, as shown by the current health-care debacle. Collectivists (those who stand for government control of the means of production and how people live their lives) promise heaven but deliver hell. For them, the promised end justifies the means. Instead of encouraging free and open debate, collectivists strive to discredit and intimidate opponents. They engage in character assassination. (I should know, as the almost daily target of their attacks.) This is the approach that Arthur Schopenhauer described in the 19th century, that Saul Alinsky famously advocated in the 20th, and that so many despots have infamously practiced. Such tactics are the antithesis of what is required for a free society—and a telltale sign that the collectivists do not have good answers. - Eric Logan from Bookmarklet
Sean McBride
Nazis, shoddy science, and the climate contrarian credibility gap | Dana Nuccitelli | Environment | -
Nazis, shoddy science, and the climate contrarian credibility gap | Dana Nuccitelli | Environment |
"Because the pool of climate experts who dispute that humans are the primary cause of global warming is so small, representing just 2 to 4 percent of climate scientists, climate contrarians often reference the same few contrarian scientists. Two such examples are Roy Spencer and John Christy of the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH), both of whom have testified before US Congress several times, and are often interviewed and quoted in the conservative media." - Sean McBride from Bookmarklet
"In their opinion piece, Christy and McNider present a graph that's supposed to prove their argument that climate models have overestimated global warming. However, rather than compare models and observations of global surface temperature, which are of the greatest importance for those of us living on the Earth's surface, they instead show temperature data from higher up in the atmosphere, the temperature of the mid-troposphere (TMT)." - Sean McBride
"Spencer, Christy, and McNider offer perfect examples of what John Kerry was criticizing – shoddy, biased science being treated on equal footing with solid mainstream science. In reality, there should be an immense credibility gap between the climate contrarians who have been consistently wrong and who deny the inconvenient data, and the mainstream climate scientists whose positions are... more... - Sean McBride
Sean McBride
Study says Arctic melt season lengthening, ocean rapidly warming -
Study says Arctic melt season lengthening, ocean rapidly warming
"The length of the melt season for Arctic sea ice is growing by several days each decade, and an earlier start to the melt season is allowing the Arctic Ocean to absorb enough additional solar radiation in some places to melt as much as four feet of the Arctic ice cap's thickness, according to a new study by National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) and NASA researchers." - Sean McBride from Bookmarklet
Barry Paul
Sean McBride
LISTEN: In Private Speech, Dick Cheney Talks Bombing Iran and GOP Donors Applaud | Mother Jones -
LISTEN: In Private Speech, Dick Cheney Talks Bombing Iran and GOP Donors Applaud | Mother Jones
"What do former Vice President Dick Cheney, billionaire mega-donor Sheldon Adelson, and Republican activists and funders talk about—and applaud—when they're behind closed doors at a Las Vegas hotel? Bombing Iran." - Sean McBride from Bookmarklet
"This past weekend, the Republican Jewish Coalition held its spring leadership meeting at Adelson's Venetian hotel, where several possible 2016 contenders, including ex-Governor Jeb Bush and current Governors Chris Christie, Scott Walker, and John Kasich, showed up to kiss the ring of the casino magnate, who's looking to bankroll a viable Republican presidential candidate. Though the... more... - Sean McBride
Top comment: "Everybody except Cheney has figured out that it was US meddling and favoritism in the Middle East that caused 9/11, but after participating in one of the most disastrous US administrations, this sociopathic individual smiles his crooked smile and proposes another war to fix America's problems. He critiques the President who has been obliged to spend most of his time... more... - Sean McBride
Barry Paul
Sean McBride
GOP Hawks Prepare for War—Against Rand Paul - Reason 24/7 : -
GOP Hawks Prepare for War—Against Rand Paul - Reason 24/7 :
"According to several donors at the Republican Jewish Coalition conference held in Las Vegas last weekend, the billionaire casino magnate Sheldon Adelson is prepared to fund a campaign against Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) if he picks up increased support during his widely anticipated presidential run in 2016." - Sean McBride from Bookmarklet
"Several prominent GOP donors at the conference suggested that Adelson, who spent more than $100 million backing Newt Gingrich and Romney in 2012, is likely to spend vast sums against Paul if he appears to be well positioned in the Republican primaries. Adelson’s spending is largely motivated by his strong concern for Israel, and Paul’s positions may well put a target on his back." - Sean McBride
"At the Republican Jewish Coalition (RJC) meeting in Las Vegas this weekend, Paul was nowhere to be found, but his presence was felt in the form of a straw man — and frequent worry. Speaker after speaker, from former Florida governor Jeb Bush to New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, laid into Paul’s more isolationist views on foreign policy. They never mentioned the lawmaker by name, but the message came across loud and clear." - Sean McBride
Almost all of the attacks on Rand Paul on foreign policy, from both Republicans and Democrats, are coming from pro-Israel militants and Israel Firsters who couldn't care less about American interests. Many of them were ringleaders of the Iraq War. - Sean McBride
Eric Logan
Big data: are we making a big mistake? - -
Big data: are we making a big mistake? -
Statisticians have spent the past 200 years figuring out what traps lie in wait when we try to understand the world through data. The data are bigger, faster and cheaper these days – but we must not pretend that the traps have all been made safe. They have not. - Eric Logan from Bookmarklet
This kind of quibbling, nitpicking and stingy approach to Big Data technologies reminds one of pessimistic predictions by "experts" that the Internet and the World Wide Web were flashes in the pan and would amount to nothing. I don't think Tim Harford has a clue about what is going on at the intersection of Big Data, artificial intelligence, machine learning, deep learning, etc. -- the... more... - Sean McBride
I don't read it as nibbling and nitpicking. Big data is obviously here to stay and adjustments will continue to happen because they have to for it to become a more accurate tool. Presently there are lots of blind spots and false positives in the data and not a lot of serious consideration of the methodology is being talked about. It's all blue sky and futurist theory. - Eric Logan
What's going on in Big Data and data mining: [Prismistic; Data Mining] - Sean McBride
The state of the art and the quality of the mining depends on the specific domains in question. Sure, there are problems in fine-tuning this technology -- but the problems are susceptible to being attacked and overcome. - Sean McBride
I envision future AI-based Big Data mining systems that develop hypotheses and theories about the patterns in their data -- especially the subtle and hidden patterns -- and which keep working to improve their own behavior vis-a-vis the real world. - Sean McBride
We're going into the Trough of Disillusionment of the Hype Cycle. First they write articles about how awesome big data is and how it'll change everything, then they write articles about how all the stuff they previously said is overblown. In the meantime the people doing the work continue using it effectively. - Amit Patel
Many tech journalists are scatterbrained -- they don't grasp long historical arcs. Their flighty enthusiasms come and go. - Sean McBride
Or maybe they do, and realize writing about both the ups and the downs brings in more pageviews ;) - Amit Patel
Sean McBride
How Tesla’s Fight With Car Dealers Could Help Decide the Next President | Business | WIRED -
How Tesla’s Fight With Car Dealers Could Help Decide the Next President | Business | WIRED
"Mitt Romney famously called Tesla Motors a “loser” company during his run for president. He lost, of course, and Tesla is by any measure winning. And so we see would-be presidential candidates lining up behind the Silicon Valley carmaker as its fight against auto dealers becomes a potential breakout issue in the 2016 election." - Sean McBride from Bookmarklet
Sean McBride
Chris Christie’s work of fiction: What his defense lawyer’s fake “probe” overlooked - -
Chris Christie’s work of fiction: What his defense lawyer’s fake “probe” overlooked -
"The 345-page outside counsel report commissioned by Gov. Chris Christie, which exonerates him of any role in the September 2013 Fort Lee lane closures, or in a subsequent coverup, is being dismissed by Trenton Democrats as a taxpayer-funded whitewash that is “entirely self-serving.”" - Sean McBride from Bookmarklet
Sean McBride
Scarborough Calls Treatment Of Ex-Christie Aide Kelly 'Shameful' -
Scarborough Calls Treatment Of Ex-Christie Aide Kelly 'Shameful'
"Joe Scarborough on Monday said it was "shameful" what attorneys for New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) were doing to his former deputy chief of staff, Bridget Kelly." - Sean McBride from Bookmarklet
Sean McBride
Jennifer Rubin’s Rand Paul obsession | Rare (Matt Palumbo) -
Jennifer Rubin’s Rand Paul obsession | Rare (Matt Palumbo)
"In February, Rep. Justin Amash (R-Mich.) was asked during a panel what he thought about Washington Post conservative columnist Jennifer Rubin saying negative things about him. Amash dismissed it and suggested people should go look at how often Rubin criticizes Rand Paul instead. So I did. Jennifer Rubin mentioned Senator Rand Paul’s name 143 times in the first three weeks of March (March 1-21) on her Right Turn blog. The only other political figure mentioned more often than Paul was President Obama at 206 times (not including “Obamacare,” but just President Obama specifically)." - Sean McBride from Bookmarklet
"Jennifer Rubin is a neoconservative who consistently supports American intervention abroad and has vigorously defended the National Security Agency’s controversial metadata collection program. Libertarian-leaning Rand Paul has called for a more restrained foreign policy and has been an outspoken critic of the NSA. In June, Reason’s Mike Riggs posted a story titled “Neocons Are Quietly... more... - Sean McBride
"In 2011, Red State’s Erick Erickson said Rubin “has nothing in common with conservatives other than hating terrorists.” In August, The Washington Post’s former ombudsman Patrick Pexton called for Jennifer Rubin to be fired, “Not because she’s conservative, but because she’s just plain bad,” describing her work as “political pornography.”" - Sean McBride
Jennifer Rubin is driven by the same demons as Pamela Geller. - Sean McBride
Eric Logan
I've been working on a new electronic cash system that's fully peer-to-peer, with no trusted third party. Satoshi Nakamoto, 2008 - Eric Logan from Bookmarklet
Eric Logan
The Myth of Industrial Rebound - -
The Myth of Industrial Rebound -
This disturbing trend is particularly pronounced in the automobile industry. When Volkswagen opened a plant in Chattanooga, Tenn., in 2011, the company was hailed for bringing around 2,000 fresh auto jobs to America. Little attention was paid to the fact that the beginning wage for assembly line workers was $14.50 per hour, about half of what traditional, unionized workers employed by General Motors or Ford received. With benefits added in, those workers cost Volkswagen $27 per hour. Consider, though, that in Germany, the average autoworker earns $67 per hour. In effect, even factoring in future pay increases for the Chattanooga employees, Volkswagen has moved production from a high-wage country (Germany) to a low-wage country (the United States). - Eric Logan from Bookmarklet
Dear Senator Rand Paul, They're excited about legal marijuana. I'm guessing that whole mostly racist with a big side order of vaginal ultrasound probes may f@@k up your exciting youth "outreach" #nostandingovationsforawaronwomen
Barry Paul
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